Janice L. Coen

A Coupled AtmosphereFire Model: Convective Feedback on Fire-Line Dynamics

Abstract The object of this paper is to describe and demonstrate the necessity and utility of a coupled atmosphere-fire model: a three-dimensional, time-dependent wildfire simulation model, based on the primitive equations of motion and thermodynamics, that can represent the finescale dynamics of convective processes and capture ambient meteorological conditions. In constructing this coupled model, model resolution for both the atmosphere and the fuel was found to be important in avoiding solutions that are physically unrealistic, and this aspect is discussed. The anelastic approximation is made in the equations of motion, and whether this dynamical framework is appropriate in its usual form for simulating wildfire behavior is also considered. Two simple experiments-the first two in a series of numerical simulations using the coupled atmosphere- fire model-are presented here, showing the effect of wind speed on fire-line evolution in idealized and controlled conditions. The first experiment considers a 42...

A wildland fire model with data assimilation

A wildfire model is formulated based on balance equations for energy and fuel, where the fuel loss due to combustion corresponds to the fuel reaction rate. The resulting coupled partial differential equations have coefficients that can be approximated from prior measurements of wildfires. An ensemble Kalman filter technique with regularization is then used to assimilate temperatures measured at selected points into running wildfire simulations. The assimilation technique is able to modify the simulations to track the measurements correctly even if the simulations were started with an erroneous ignition location that is quite far away from the correct one.

Simulation of the Big Elk Fire using coupled atmosphere–fire modeling

Models that simulate wildland fires span a vast range of complexity; the most physically complex present a difficult supercomputing challenge that cannot be solved fast enough to become a forecasting tool. Coupled atmosphere–fire model simulations of the Big Elk Fire, a wildfire that occurred in the Colorado Front Range during 2002, are used to explore whether some factors that make simulations more computationally demanding (such as coupling between the fire and the atmosphere and fine atmospheric model resolution) are needed to capture wildland fire parameters of interest such as fire perimeter growth. In addition to a Control simulation, other simulations remove the feedback to the atmospheric dynamics and use increasingly coarse atmospheric resolution, including some that can be computed in faster than real time on a single processor. These simulations show that, although the feedback between the fire and atmosphere must be included to capture accurately the shape of the fire, the simulations with relatively coarse atmospheric resolution (grid spacing 100–500 m) can qualitatively capture fire growth and behavior such as surface and crown fire spread and smoke transport. A comparison of the computational performance of the model configured at these different spatial resolutions shows that these can be performed faster than real time on a single computer processor. Thus, although this model still requires rigorous testing over a wide range of fire incidents, it is computationally possible to use models that can capture more complex fire behavior (such as rapid changes in intensity, large fire whirls, and interactions between fire, weather, and topography) than those used currently in the field and meet a faster-than-real-time operational constraint.

Analysis of Small-Scale Convective Dynamics in a Crown Fire Using Infrared Video Camera Imagery

A good physical understanding of the initiation, propagation, and spread of crown fires remains an elusive goal for fire researchers. Although some data exist that describe the fire spread rate and some qualitative aspects of wildfire behavior, none have revealed the very small timescales and spatial scales in the convective processes that may play a key role in determining both the details and the rate of fire spread. Here such a dataset is derived using data from a prescribed burn during the International Crown Fire Modelling Experiment. A gradient-based image flow analysis scheme is presented and applied to a sequence of high-frequency (0.03 s), high-resolution (0.05‐0.16 m) radiant temperature images obtained by an Inframetrics ThermaCAM instrument during an intense crown fire to derive wind fields and sensible heat flux. It was found that the motions during the crown fire had energy-containing scales on the order of meters with timescales of fractions of a second. Estimates of maximum vertical heat fluxes ranged between 0.6 and 3 MW m 22 over the 4.5-min burn, with early time periods showing surprisingly large fluxes of 3 MW m 22. Statistically determined velocity extremes, using five standard deviations from the mean, suggest that updrafts between 10 and 30 m s21, downdrafts between 210 and 220 m s21, and horizontal motions between 5 and 15 m s21 frequently occurred throughout the fire. The image flow analyses indicated a number of physical mechanisms that contribute to the fire spread rate, such as the enhanced tilting of horizontal vortices leading to counterrotating convective towers with estimated vertical vorticities of 4 to 10 s 21 rotating such that air between the towers blew in the direction of fire spread at canopy height and below. The IR imagery and flow analysis also repeatedly showed regions of thermal saturation (infrared temperature . 7508C), rising through the convection. These regions represent turbulent bursts or hairpin vortices resulting again from vortex tilting but in the sense that the tilted vortices come together to form the hairpin shape. As the vortices rise and come closer together their combined motion results in the vortex tilting forward at a relatively sharp angle, giving a hairpin shape. The development of these hairpin vortices over a range of scales may represent an important mechanism through which convection contributes to the fire spread. A major problem with the IR data analysis is understanding fully what it is that the camera is sampling, in order physically to interpret the data. The results indicate that because of the large amount of after-burning incandescent soot associated with the crown fire, the camera was viewing only a shallow depth into the flame front, and variabilities in the distribution of hot soot particles provide the structures necessary to derive image flow fields. The coherency of the derived horizontal velocities support this view because if the IR camera were seeing deep into or through the flame front, then the effect of the ubiquitous vertical rotations almost certainly would result in random and incoherent estimates for the horizontal flow fields. Animations of the analyzed imagery showed a remarkable level of consistency in both horizontal and vertical velocity flow structures from frame to frame in support of this interpretation. The fact that the 2D image represents a distorted surface also must be taken into account when interpreting the data. Suggestions for further field experimentation, software development, and testing are discussed in the conclusions. These suggestions may further understanding on this topic and increase the utility of this type of analysis to wildfire research.

WRF-Fire: coupled weather-wildland fire modeling with the weather research and forecasting model

AbstractA wildland fire-behavior module, named WRF-Fire, was integrated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) public domain numerical weather prediction model. The fire module is a surface fire-behavior model that is two-way coupled with the atmospheric model. Near-surface winds from the atmospheric model are interpolated to a finer fire grid and are used, with fuel properties and local terrain gradients, to determine the fire’s spread rate and direction. Fuel consumption releases sensible and latent heat fluxes into the atmospheric model’s lowest layers, driving boundary layer circulations. The atmospheric model, configured in turbulence-resolving large-eddy-simulation mode, was used to explore the sensitivity of simulated fire characteristics such as perimeter shape, fire intensity, and spread rate to external factors known to influence fires, such as fuel characteristics and wind speed, and to explain how these external parameters affect the overall fire properties. Through the use of theoret...

Data assimilation for wildland fires

Two wildland fire models and methods for assimilating data in those models are presented. The EnKF is implemented ina distributed-memory high-performance computing environment. Data assimilation methods are developed combining EnKF with Tikhonov regularization to avoid nonphysical states and with the ideas of registration and morphing from image processing to allow large position corrections. The data assimilation methods can track the data even in the presence of large corrections, while avoiding divergence. The methods can assimilate gridded data, but the assimilation of station data and steering of data acquisition is left to future developments. A semi-empirical fire spread model is implemented by the level-set method and coupled with the WRF model.

Infrared Imagery of Crown-Fire Dynamics during FROSTFIRE

Abstract A thorough understanding of crown-fire dynamics requires a clear picture of the three-dimensional winds in and near the fire, including the flaming combustion zone and the convective updrafts produced by the fire. These observations and analyses present a unique high-spatial-resolution and high-temporal-resolution perspective of the motions within crown fires propagating up a forested 20° slope under light winds of 3 m s−1 during the FROSTFIRE experiment in interior Alaska. The purpose of this work is to calculate combustion-zone winds and examine mechanisms for the rapid propagation of crown fires. An infrared imager was used to detect high-temperature regions produced by incandescent soot particles in and near the fire and to produce a sequence of high-frequency (60 Hz), high-resolution (0.375 m × 0.8 m) two-dimensional images of temperature. An image-flow-analysis technique was applied to these data to derive wind fields in the image plane. Maximum updrafts of 32–60 m s−1 accompany maximum dow...

Influences of Storm-Embedded Orographic Gravity Waves on Cloud Liquid Water and Precipitation

Abstract This study illustrates opportunities for much improved orographic quantitative precipitation forecasting, determination of orographic cloud seedability, and flash flood prediction through state-of-the-art remote sensing and numerical modeling of gravity wave clouds. Wintertime field observations with multiple remote sensors, corroborated in this and related papers with a mesoscale–cloud scale numerical simulation, confirm that storm-embedded gravity waves can have a strong and persistent influence on orographic cloud liquid water (CLW) and precipitation. Where parallel mountain ridges dominate the landscape, an upwind ridge can force the wave action, and a downwind ridge can receive the precipitation. The 1995 Arizona Program was conducted in such terrain. In the scenario examined, traveling waves cyclically caused prefrontal cross-barrier winds that produced gravity waves. Significant cloud bands associated with the waves carried substantial moisture to the area. With the passage and waning of t...

A Note on Dynamic Data Driven Wildfire Modeling

A proposed system for real-time modeling of wildfires is described. The system involves numerical weather and fire prediction, automated data acquisition from Internet sources, and input from aerial photographs and sensors. The system will be controlled by a non-Gaussian ensemble filter capable of assimilating out-of-order data. The computational model will run on remote supercomputers, with visualization on PDAs in the field connected to the Internet via a satellite.

Terrain-Induced Turbulence over Lantau Island: 7 June 1994 Tropical Storm Russ Case Study

Abstract Numerical simulations of terrain-induced turbulence associated with airflow over Lantau Island of Hong Kong are presented. Lantau is a relatively small island with three narrow peaks rising to between 700 and 950 m above mean sea level. This research was undertaken as part of a project to better understand and predict the nature of turbulence and shear at the new airport site on the island of Chek Lap Kok, which is located to the lee of Lantau. Intensive ground and aerial observations were taken from May through June 1994, during the Lantau Experiment (LANTEX). This paper focuses on flow associated with the passage of Tropical Storm Russ on 7 June 1994, during which severe turbulence was observed. The nature of the environmental and topographic forcing on 7 June 1994 resulted in the turbulence and shear being dominated by the combination of topographic effects and surface friction. High-resolution numerical simulations, initialized using local sounding data, were performed using the Clark model. ...