Janina Onigkeit

Long-term, consistent scenarios of emissions, deposition, and climate change in Europe

The aim of this study was to develop consistent scenarios of emissions, climate change and regional air pollution to enable an integrated analysis of the linkage between climate change and regional air pollution in Europe. An integrated modeling framework was developed for this purpose. The framework integrates state-of-the-art models and concepts from the area of climate change and regional air pollution and was supplemented by new modules (e.g. modeling long-term NH3 emissions in Europe, modeling dispersion and transformation of air pollutants under climate change). Consistent climate and air pollution policies were derived, both driven by the desire to achieve certain environmental goals. According to an analysis of scenarios with various combinations of climate and regional air pollution policies the quantitatively most relevant interactions are the effect of climate change policies on the energy mix and the resulting air pollution emissions. In the long-term the global SO2 emissions are expected to decrease (again), accordingly their effect on climate will be minor. Tentatively it can be concluded that for regional air pollution the development of the air pollutant emissions is more important than the effect of climate change on the dispersion and chemical transformation of air pollutants.

Critical climate change as an approach to assess climate change impacts in Europe: development and application

Abstract This paper presents a new methodology called the “critical climate change” approach for evaluating policies for reducing climate change impacts on natural ecosystems. This method is particularly suited for integrated assessments because of its long-term and large-scale perspective. This is an analogous approach to the “critical loads” concept used for assessing regional air pollution impacts in Europe. Critical climate change is defined as the “quantitative magnitude of climate change (expressed as changes in temperature and precipitation) above which unacceptable long-term effects on ecosystems may occur, according to current knowledge”. The approach consists of four main steps: (1) Selection of appropriate indicators of climate change impact. Here we select changes in net primary productivity of ecosystems. (2) Assigning to the selected indicator a level of “unacceptable impact” of climate change. Here we assume this level to be at least a 10% loss in the net primary productivity of natural ecosystems, after considering other thresholds and the historical variation in ecosystem productivity. (3) Determining the response of the indicator to one or more climate-related driving force. This includes identifying the combinations of driving forces that produce the assigned unacceptable impact . (4) Computing the area where critical climate changes exceeded under climate change scenarios. An analysis of climate scenarios show that critical climate changes may be exceeded on 9–13% of Europe’s area by 2100, depending on the scenario. The areas where critical climate changes are exceeded are located mostly in southern Europe, even under relatively low emission scenarios.

A Different Perspective for Global Climate Policy: Combining Burden Sharing and Climate Protection

The climate summits in Kyoto and Buenos Aires achieved some tentative first steps for international climate protection. However, an important question that was left open by both summits was the issue of strategies for long-term climate protection strategies and their consequences on emissions reduction commitments for both industrialized and developing countries. This question was later given high priority at the 6th International Workshop on ‘Using Global Models to Support Climate Negotiations’, in Kassel, Germany (see Onigkeit et a.l, 1998) and is addressed by the authors in this paper. The purpose of this paper is to provide an approach that combines the question of stabilization targets with the question of allocation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We use this approach to evaluate the implications of different long-term climate protection targets on the allocation of emissions reductions in non-Annex B1 and Annex B countries. This allocation is based on two indicators that reflect considerations of capability and equity. These are (1) per capita income to select the point in time when developing countries can afford to take measures in a climate protection regime and (2) a convergence of per capita emissions with the aim of overcoming the current disparity in per capita emissions between industrialized and developing countries.

An Integrated Land-Use System Model for the Jordan River Region

The Jordan River region (Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinian National Authority (PA)) is one of the most water scarce regions of the world. The total renewable water resource values in the Jordan River region are 52 to 535 m3 per capita and year [15], which is far below the threshold value of 1000 m3 per capita and year indicating chronic water scarcity [14]. On average, water resources withdrawn for agricultural activities, such as irrigated crop production, amount to two thirds of the total actual renewable water resources in the Jordan River region [17]. This makes the agricultural sector the region’s major water user and shows the strong regional impact of agricultural land-use activities on water resources. Besides the effect on water resources, land-use activities also have a considerable effect on other natural resources [20]. Examples are desertification caused by maladjusted land management policies [1, 4], biodiversity loss due to habitat destruction and fragmentation [41, 64], and salinization of land induced by irrigation [22]. Current pressures on natural resources in the Jordan River region are likely to aggravate in the future due to high projected population growth rates, economic development, and changing climate conditions. This may cause a further degradation of the region’s ecosystems and reduce their capacity to provide ecosystem services in the long run. Hence, there is an urgent need for a better understanding of the complex relationships in these human-environmental systems, in order to develop sustainable management strategies for the use of natural resources in the Jordan River region.

Participative Scenario Development as a Method to Integrate Science and IWRM—Lessons Learnt from a Case Study in the Jordan River Region

A scenario process was carried out in the Jordan River region aiming at the elaboration of strategic options for the management of its water resources up to the year 2050. The objective of the participative process was to provide scientific support for Israeli, Jordanian and Palestinian stakeholders involved in water management in the region. As a scenario method the “Story and Simulation” (SAS) approach was applied. This approach requires the participation of a variety of stakeholders in order to get a broad perspective on the water management issue and the involvement of scientists from a variety of disciplines to quantify relevant aspects of IWRM. We describe the process of scenario development for trans-boundary water management under different socio-economic futures and discuss it with respect to the interaction between science and practice of managing water resources. Four scenarios and water strategies were developed by combining exploratory and back-casting methods of scenario development. The resulting scenarios cover a wide range of socio-economic futures in the region which allow for and require a large variety of potential options to manage water resources. These options cover diverse aspects ranging from large scale high-tech solutions to societal changes affecting water consumption behaviour. At this point the strength of the SAS approach played out in that quantifiable and non-quantifiable elements of water strategies could be combined. This combination however, requires the opportunity and willingness of interaction between scientists and stakeholders so that both can profit from such a process and its outcome.

Benefits and Barriers of Participation: Experiences of Applied Research Projects in Integrated Water Resources Management

The role and design of participation for the successful implementation of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) has been intensely discussed. However, in the specific context of applied IWRM research, benefits of participation and specific conditions to realize these benefits are often neglected. Such disregard is problematic when scientific driven IWRM concepts are increasingly interwoven with actual IWRM implementation. In order to discover specific benefits and challenges of conducting participation in applied research, both quantitative and qualitative interviews were carried out amongst 15 German IWRM research projects in emerging and developing countries and contrasted with hypotheses in the literature. Results show that researchers tend to agree with hypotheses in the literature, e.g. in terms of the positive role of participatory processes, its different functions and specific design principles in term of skills of researchers and frame conditions. However, researchers of the IWRM funding initiative especially highlighted challenges with regards to several prerequisites like skills of researchers to conduct participatory processes or structural conditions. For instance, hard skills are often missing, e.g. the knowledge on how to design participation processes in view of the respective research goal. Moreover, unlike practitioners, researchers are rarely trained in soft skills like intercultural competences for adjusting participatory approaches to different cultural contexts. In terms of structural conditions, the German BMBF research context shows temporal and financial restrictions. Furthermore, conditions within the target country such as political and social aspects are important and not easy to overlook if the project is based in Germany like it is the case in most of the research projects investigated.

Analysing Stakeholder Driven Scenarios with a Transboundary Water Planning Tool for IWRM in the Jordan River Basin

Although IWRM has become the mainstream concept for water management, its implementation in transboundary, politically tense settings, such as the Jordan River basin, is still limited. In this study we present the application of a transboundary spatially explicit water resources simulation and planning tool in support of decision making in this contentious setting. We integrated socio-economic scenarios and water management strategies resulting from a stakeholder process, thereby including socio-economic uncertainty, using the WEAP modelling software. Tool development was supported by an active transboundary dialogue between scientists and stakeholders. The tool was used to identify water scarcity effects and spatial-temporal response patterns under four regional scenarios up to the year 2050. These scenarios suggested that the positive effects of large scale water management options such as sea water desalination and the increased use of treated wastewater can be strongly limited by insufficient water transport infrastructure and/or a lack of cooperation. Respective responses to water scarcity should be pursued with the same intensity as currently the implementation of large scale supply-side options.