Janine Aron

Credit, Housing Collateral, and Consumption: Evidence from Japan, the U.K., and the U.S.

The consumption behavior of U.K., U.S., and Japanese households is examined and compared using a modern Ando-Modigliani style consumption function. The models incorporate income growth expectations, income uncertainty, housing collateral, and other credit effects. These models therefore capture important parts of the financial accelerator. The evidence is that credit availability for U.K. and U.S., but not Japanese, households has undergone large shifts since 1980. The average consumption-to-income ratio rose in the U.K. and U.S. as mortgage down-payment constraints eased and as the collateral role of housing wealth was enhanced by financial innovations, such as home equity loans. The estimated housing collateral effect is similar in the U.S. and U.K. In Japan, land prices (which proxy house prices) continue to negatively impact consumer spending. There are negative real interest rate effects on consumption in the U.K. and U.S. and positive effects in Japan. Overall, this implies important differences in the transmission of monetary and credit shocks in Japan versus the U.S., U.K., and other credit-liberalized economies.

Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa

Forecasting models for output are presented to throw light on monetary transmission. Recent research finds multistep forecasting superior to recursive forecasting from a VAR model when structural breaks are present; there are important political and policy regime breaks in South Africa. The equilibrium correction models have a four-quarter ahead forecast horizon, appropriate for measuring interest rate effects. A stochastic trend measures underlying shifts in productivity and other supply side trends. The inclusion of important monetary policy regime shifts, which altered the output response to interest rates, and the control for other structural changes (e.g., trade liberalization), address the Lucas critique in forecasting output growth. There are important and persistent effects of high real interest rates, which significantly constrained growth in the 1990s, and significant potential growth benefits from fiscal discipline. South African growth appears to have become more responsive to the exchange rate with increasing trade openness in the 1990s.

South African economic policy under democracy

South Africa experienced a momentous change of government from the Apartheid regime to its first democratic government in 1994. This book provides an up-to-date and comprehensive assessment of South Africas economic policies and performance under democracy. The book includes a stand-alone introduction and economic overview, as well as chapters on growth, monetary and exchange rate policy and fiscal policy, on capital flows and trade policy, on investment and industrial and competition policy, on the effect of AIDs in the macroeconomy, and on unemployment, education and inequality and poverty. Each chapter, and the overview chapter in particular, also addresses prospects for the future. Contributors to this volume - Tania Ajam (AFREC and Financial and Fiscal Commission of South Africa) Janine Aron (University of Oxford) Servaas van der Berg (University of Stellenbosch) Anthony Black (University of Cape Town) Rashad Cassim (Statistics South Africa) Lawrence Edwards (University of Cape Town) Linette Ellis (University of Stellenbosch) Dirk Ernst van Seventer (TIPS, South Africa) Johannes W. Fedderke (University of Cape Town) Brian Kahn (South African Reserve Bank) Geeta Kingdon (University of London) John Knight (University of Oxford) Jonathan Leape (London School of Economics) Murray Leibbrandt (University of Cape Town) John Muellbauer (University of Oxford) Stan Du Plessis (University of Stellenbosch) Simon Roberts (Competition Commission of South Africa) Ben Smit (University of Stellenbosch) Lynne Thomas (London School of Economics) Christopher Woolard (University of Cape Town) Ingrid Woolard (University of Cape Town)

Estimates of Household Sector Wealth for South Africa, 1970-2003

Market values of components of household sector wealth are important explanatory variables for aggregate consumer expenditure and household debt in macro-econometric models. We construct the first coherent set of the main elements of household-sector balance sheet estimates at market value for South Africa. Our quarterly estimates derive from published data on financial flows, and other capital market data, often at book value. Our methods rely, where relevant, on accumulating flow of funds data using appropriate benchmarks, and, where necessary, converting book to market values using appropriate asset price indices. Relating asset to income ratios for various asset classes to asset price movements and other features of the economic environment, throws light on the changing composition of household sector wealth. Most striking are the relative rise in the value of pension wealth and the trend decline of directly held securities, the decline and recent recovery of housing wealth, and the rise in household debt and concomitant decline of liquid assets from the early 1980s to the late 1990s.

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Developing and Emerging Markets: A Survey of Conceptual, Methodological and Policy Issues, and Selected Empirical Findings

Abstract Global integration has increased the international linkages of financial markets for emerging market countries. A key channel for the international transmission of inflation and economic cycles is from exchange rate movements to domestic prices, known as exchange rate pass-through (ERPT). This article reviews the conceptual, methodological and policy issues connected with ERPT in emerging market and developing countries, and critically surveys selected empirical studies. A key contribution is to categorise and compare the heterogeneous methodologies used to extract ERPT measures in the empirical literature. Single equation models and systems methods are contrasted; frequent misspecifications that produce unreliable ERPT estimates are highlighted. The discerning policy-maker needs to ascertain by which methods ERPT measures were calculated, the controls and restrictions applied, and the time frame and stability of the estimates.

New Methods for Forecasting Inflation, Applied to the US

Models for the twelve-month-ahead US rate of inflation, measured by the chain weighted consumer expenditure deflator, are estimated for 1974-99 and subsequent pseudo out-of-sample forecasting performance is examined. Alternative forecasting approaches for different information sets are compared with benchmark univariate autoregressive models, and substantial out-performance is demonstrated. Three key ingredients to the out-performance are: including equilibrium correction terms in relative prices; introducing non-linearities to proxy state dependence in the inflation process; and replacing the information criterion, commonly used in VARs to select lag length, with a ‘parsimonious longer lags’ (PLL) parameterisation. Forecast pooling or averaging also improves forecast performance.

Exchange Rate Pass-through to Import Prices, and Monetary Policy in South Africa

Abstract Understanding how import prices adjust to exchange rates helps anticipate inflation effects and monetary policy responses. This article examines exchange rate pass-through to the monthly import price index in South Africa during 1980–2009. Short-horizon pass-through estimates are calculated using both single equation equilibrium correction models and systems (Johansen) models, controlling for both domestic and foreign costs. Average pass-through is incomplete at about 50 per cent within a year and 30 per cent in six months, and in the long-run, from the Johansen analysis including feedback effects, is about 55 per cent. There is evidence of slower pass-through under inflation targeting; pass-through is found to decline with recent exchange rate volatility and there is evidence for asymmetry, with greater pass-through occurring for small appreciations.

Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices in South Africa: Evidence from Micro-Data

Abstract A sizeable literature examines exchange rate pass-through to disaggregated import prices, but few micro-studies focus on consumer prices. This article explores exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in South Africa, for 2002–2007, using a unique data set of highly disaggregated data at the product and outlet level. The empirical approach allows pass-through to be calculated over various horizons for different goods and services. The heterogeneity of pass-through for food sub-components is considerable. Switches between import and export parity pricing of maize are found significant for five out of ten food sub-components. Using actual weights from the CPI basket, overall pass-through to the almost 63 per cent of the CPI covered is about 30 per cent after two years, and higher for food.

Monetary Policy and Inflation Modeling in a More Open Economy in South Africa

South Africa in the 1990s became globally more integrated after years of isolation. Opening the trade and capital accounts gave impetus to a monetary policy regime change to inflation targeting from 2000, after a costly transitional period of monetary mismanagement with low policy transparency. Changes in openness can, however, disrupt the inflation forecasting on which targeting monetary policies depend. This chapter demonstrates how the central bank’s own producer price inflation equation in its core model can be improved by taking account of greater openness, using both innovative time-series openness measures and a more conventional measure. The model has a greatly improved fit and stability over longer samples when also including the real exchange rate and the interest rate differential (making explicit the exchange rate channel of monetary transmission) and asymmetric food price inflation. Moreover, there is a role for the level of the output gap rather than simply a short-run effect, as in the central bank’s model. This helps mitigate the arguments in current South African debate regarding the apparent unconcern of inflation targeting policy for the level of economic activity.

The Next Collapse: U.S. Price Inflation

The econometric models of Janine Aron and John Muellbauer of Oxford predict that deflation, or at least an end to inflation, are on the way, but they do not foresee a lost decade for the U.S., Europe, or the global economy.