Janko Rakic

Procalcitonin for reduced antibiotic exposure in ventilator-associated pneumonia: a randomised study

In patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP), guidelines recommend antibiotic therapy adjustment according to microbiology results after 72 h. Circulating procalcitonin levels may provide evidence that facilitates the reduction of antibiotic therapy. In a multicentre, randomised, controlled trial, 101 patients with VAP were assigned to an antibiotic discontinuation strategy according to guidelines (control group) or to serum procalcitonin concentrations (procalcitonin group) with an antibiotic regimen selected by the treating physician. The primary end-point was antibiotic-free days alive assessed 28 days after VAP onset and analysed on an intent-to-treat basis. Procalcitonin determination significantly increased the number of antibiotic free-days alive 28 days after VAP onset (13 (2–21) days versus 9.5 (1.5–17) days). This translated into a reduction in the overall duration of antibiotic therapy of 27% in the procalcitonin group (p = 0.038). After adjustment for age, microbiology and centre effect, the rate of antibiotic discontinuation on day 28 remained higher in the procalcitonin group compared with patients treated according to guidelines (hazard rate 1.6, 95% CI 1.02–2.71). The number of mechanical ventilation-free days alive, intensive care unit-free days alive, length of hospital stay and mortality rate on day 28 for the two groups were similar. Serum procalcitonin reduces antibiotic therapy exposure in patients with ventilator associated pneumonia.

Adrenomedullin refines mortality prediction by the BODE index in COPD: the “BODE-A” index

The BODE (body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea, exercise capacity) index is well-validated for mortality prediction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Concentrations of plasma pro-adrenomedullin, a surrogate for mature adrenomedullin, independently predicted 2-year mortality among inpatients with COPD exacerbation. We compared accuracy of initial pro-adrenomedullin level, BODE and BODE components, alone or combined, in predicting 1-year or 2-year all-cause mortality in a multicentre, multinational observational cohort with stable, moderate to very severe COPD. Pro-adrenomedullin was significantly associated (p<0.001) with 1-year mortality (4.7%) and 2-year mortality (7.8%) and comparably predictive to BODE regarding both (C statistics 0.691 versus 0.745 and 0.635 versus 0.679, respectively). Relative to using BODE alone, adding pro-adrenomedullin significantly improved 1-year and 2-year mortality prognostication (C statistics 0.750 and 0.818, respectively; both p<0.001). Pro-adrenomedullin plus BOD was more predictive than the original BODE including 6-min walk distance. In multivariable analysis, pro-adrenomedullin (likelihood ratio Chi-squared 13.0, p<0.001), body mass index (8.5, p=0.004) and 6-min walk distance (7.5, p=0.006) independently foretold 2-year survival, but modified Medical Research Council dyspnoea score (2.2, p=0.14) and forced expiratory volume in 1 s % predicted (0.3, p=0.60) did not. Pro-adrenomedullin plus BODE better predicts mortality in COPD patients than does BODE alone; pro-adrenomedullin may substitute for 6-min walk distance in BODE when 6-min walk testing is unavailable. Pro-adrenomedullin improves BODE prediction of mortality in COPD patients and may substitute for 6-min walk distance http://ow.ly/qV5M3

Pancreatic stone protein : a marker of organ failure and outcome in ventilator-associated pneumonia

BACKGROUND Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is the most common hospital-acquired, life-threatening infection. Poor outcome and health-care costs of nosocomial pneumonia remain a global burden. Currently, physicians rely on their experience to discriminate patients with good and poor outcome. However, standardized prognostic measures might guide medical decisions in the future. Pancreatic stone protein (PSP)/regenerating protein (reg) is associated with inflammation, infection, and other disease-related stimuli. The prognostic value of PSP/reg among critically ill patients is unknown. The aim of this pilot study was to evaluate PSP/reg in VAP. METHODS One hundred one patients with clinically diagnosed VAP were assessed. PSP/reg was retrospectively analyzed using deep-frozen serum samples from VAP onset up to day 7. The main end point was death within 28 days after VAP onset. RESULTS Serum PSP/reg was associated with the sequential organ failure assessment score from VAP onset (Spearman rank correlation coefficient 0.49 P < .001) up to day 7. PSP/reg levels at VAP onset were elevated in nonsurvivors (n = 20) as compared with survivors (117.0 ng/mL [36.1-295.3] vs 36.3 ng/mL [21.0-124.0] P = .011). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of PSP/reg to predict mortality/survival were 0.69 at VAP onset and 0.76 at day 7. Two PSP/reg cutoffs potentially allow for identification of individuals with a particularly good and poor outcome. Whereas PSP/reg levels below 24 ng/mL at VAP onset were associated with a good chance of survival, levels above 177 ng/mL at day 7 were present in patients with a very poor outcome. CONCLUSIONS Serum PSP/reg is a biomarker related to organ failure and outcome in patients with VAP. TRIAL REGISTRY ISRCTN.org; No.: ISRCTN61015974; URL: www.isrctn.org.

Mortality risk prediction in COPD by a prognostic biomarker panel

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a complex disease with various phenotypes. The simultaneous determination of multiple biomarkers reflecting different pathobiological pathways could be useful in identifying individuals with an increased risk of death. We derived and validated a combination of three biomarkers (adrenomedullin, arginine vasopressin and atrial natriuretic peptide), assessed in plasma samples of 385 patients, to estimate mortality risk in stable COPD. Biomarkers were analysed in combination and defined as high or low. In the derivation cohort (n = 142), there were 73 deaths during the 5-year follow-up. Crude hazard ratios for mortality were 3.0 (95% CI 1.8–5.1) for one high biomarker, 4.8 (95% CI 2.4–9.5) for two biomarkers and 9.6 (95% CI 3.3–28.3) for three high biomarkers compared with no elevated biomarkers. In the validation cohort (n = 243), 87 individuals died. Corresponding hazard ratios were 1.9 (95% CI 1.1–3.3), 3.1 (95% CI 1.8–5.4) and 5.4 (95% CI 2.5–11.4). Multivariable adjustment for clinical variables as well as the BODE (body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea, exercise capacity) index and stratification by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stages provided consistent results. The addition of the panel of three biomarkers to the BODE index generated a net reclassification improvement of 57.9% (95% CI 21.7–92.4%) and 45.9% (95% CI 13.9–75.7%) at 3 and 5 years, respectively. Simultaneously elevated levels of adrenomedullin, arginine vasopressin and atrial natriuretic peptide are associated with increased risk of death in patients with stable COPD. Simultaneously elevated levels of ADM, AVP and ANP are associated with increased risk of death in COPD http://ow.ly/yt9GA

Midregional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide and procalcitonin improve survival prediction in VAP

Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) affects mortality, morbidity and cost of critical care. Reliable risk estimation might improve end-of-life decisions, resource allocation and outcome. Several scoring systems for survival prediction have been established and optimised over the last decades. Recently, new biomarkers have gained interest in the prognostic field. We assessed whether midregional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP) and procalcitonin (PCT) improve the predictive value of the Simplified Acute Physiologic Score (SAPS) II and Sequential Related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) in VAP. Specified end-points of a prospective multinational trial including 101 patients with VAP were analysed. Death <28 days after VAP onset was the primary end-point. MR-proANP and PCT were elevated at the onset of VAP in nonsurvivors compared with survivors (p = 0.003 and p = 0.017, respectively) and their slope of decline differed significantly (p = 0.018 and p = 0.039, respectively). Patients with the highest MR-proANP quartile at VAP onset were at increased risk for death (log rank p = 0.013). In a logistic regression model, MR-proANP was identified as the best predictor of survival. Adding MR-proANP and PCT to SAPS II and SOFA improved their predictive properties (area under the curve 0.895 and 0.880). We conclude that the combination of two biomarkers, MR-proANP and PCT, improve survival prediction of clinical severity scores in VAP.

Prognostic assessment in COPD without lung function: the B-AE-D indices

Several composite markers have been proposed for risk assessment in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, choice of parameters and score complexity restrict clinical applicability. Our aim was to provide and validate a simplified COPD risk index independent of lung function. The PROMISE study (n=530) was used to develop a novel prognostic index. Index performance was assessed regarding 2-year COPD-related mortality and all-cause mortality. External validity was tested in stable and exacerbated COPD patients in the ProCOLD, COCOMICS and COMIC cohorts (total n=2988). Using a mixed clinical and statistical approach, body mass index (B), severe acute exacerbations of COPD frequency (AE), modified Medical Research Council dyspnoea severity (D) and copeptin (C) were identified as the most suitable simplified marker combination. 0, 1 or 2 points were assigned to each parameter and totalled to B-AE-D or B-AE-D-C. It was observed that B-AE-D and B-AE-D-C were at least as good as BODE (body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea, exercise capacity), ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) and DOSE (dyspnoea, obstruction, smoking, exacerbation) indices for predicting 2-year all-cause mortality (c-statistic: 0.74, 0.77, 0.69, 0.72 and 0.63, respectively; Hosmer–Lemeshow test all p>0.05). Both indices were COPD specific (c-statistic for predicting COPD-related 2-year mortality: 0.87 and 0.89, respectively). External validation of B-AE-D was performed in COCOMICS and COMIC (c-statistic for 1-year all-cause mortality: 0.68 and 0.74; c-statistic for 2-year all-cause mortality: 0.65 and 0.67; Hosmer–Lemeshow test all p>0.05). The B-AE-D index, plus copeptin if available, allows a simple and accurate assessment of COPD-related risk. The B-AE-D indices allow a simple and accurate assessment of COPD-related risk in the absence of lung function http://ow.ly/XFBox

Therapy with proton-pump inhibitors for gastroesophageal reflux disease does not reduce the risk for severe exacerbations in COPD.

Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) symptoms are associated with a higher risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbation. We hypothesize that treatment with proton pump inhibitors reduces the risk of exacerbation in patients with stable COPD.

Exertional Hypoxemia in Stable COPD Is Common and Predicted by Circulating Proadrenomedullin

BACKGROUND The prevalence of exertional hypoxemia in unselected patients with COPD is unknown. Intermittent hypoxia leads to adrenomedullin (ADM) upregulation through the hypoxia-inducible factor-1 pathway. We aimed to assess the prevalence and the annual probability to develop exertional hypoxemia in stable COPD. We also hypothesized that increased ADM might be associated with exertional hypoxemia and envisioned that adding ADM to clinical variables might improve its prediction in COPD. METHODS A total of 1,233 6-min walk tests and circulating proadrenomedullin (proADM) levels from 574 patients with clinically stable, moderate to very severe COPD enrolled in a multinational cohort study and followed up for 2 years were concomitantly analyzed. RESULTS The prevalence of exertional hypoxemia was 29.1%. In a matrix derived from a fitted-multistate model, the annual probability to develop exertional hypoxemia was 21.6%. Exertional hypoxemia was associated with greater deterioration of specific domains of health-related quality of life, higher severe exacerbation, and death annual rates. In the logistic linear and conditional Cox regression multivariable analyses, both FEV1% predicted and proADM proved independent predictors of exertional hypoxemia (P < .001 for both). Adjustment for comorbidities, including cardiovascular disorders, and exacerbation rate did not influence results. Relative to using FEV1% predicted alone, adding proADM resulted in a significant improvement of the predictive properties (P = .018). Based on the suggested nonlinear nomogram, patients with moderate COPD (FEV1% predicted = 50%) but high proADM levels (> 2 nmol/L) presented increased risk (> 30%) for exertional desaturation. CONCLUSIONS Exertional desaturation is common and associated with poorer clinical outcomes in COPD. ADM improves prediction of exertional desaturation as compared with the use of FEV1% predicted alone. TRIAL REGISTRY ISRCTN Register; No.: ISRCTN99586989; URL: www.controlled-trials.com.

Vasoactive Intestinal Peptide for Diagnosing Exacerbation in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Background: Vasoactive intestinal peptide (VIP) is the most abundant neuropeptide in the lung. VIP has been linked to pulmonary arterial hypertension and hypoxia. Objectives: We aimed to assess circulating VIP levels at exacerbation and at stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and to evaluate the diagnostic performance in a well-characterized cohort of COPD patients. Methods: The nested cohort study included patients with Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stage II-IV. Patients were examined at stable state and at acute exacerbation of COPD (AE-COPD), and dedicated serum was collected at both conditions. Serum VIP levels were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Diagnostic accuracy was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the curve (AUC). Results: Patients with acute exacerbation (n = 120) and stable COPD (n = 163) had similar characteristics at baseline. Serum VIP levels did not correlate with oxygen saturation at rest (p = 0.722) or at exercise (p = 0.168). Serum VIP levels were significantly higher at AE-COPD (130.25 pg/ml, 95% CI 112.19-151.83) as compared to stable COPD (40.07 pg/ml, 95% CI 37.13-43.96, p < 0.001). The association of increased serum VIP with AE-COPD remained significant after propensity score matching (p < 0.001). Analysis of the Youden index indicated the optimal serum VIP cutoff value as 56.6 pg/ml. The probability of AE-COPD was very low if serum VIP was ≤35 pg/ml (sensitivity >90%) and very high if serum VIP was ≥88 pg/ml (specificity >90%). Serum VIP levels presented a robust performance to diagnose AE-COPD (AUC 0.849, 95% CI 0.779-0.899). Conclusions: Increased serum VIP levels are associated with AE-COPD.

Intensified Therapy with Inhaled Corticosteroids and Long-Acting β2-Agonists at the Onset of Upper Respiratory Tract Infection to Prevent Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbations. A Multicenter, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-controlled Trial

Rationale: The efficacy of intensified combination therapy with inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) and long‐acting &bgr;2‐agonists (LABA) at the onset of upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) symptoms in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is unknown. Objectives: To evaluate whether intensified combination therapy with ICS/LABA, at the onset of URTI symptoms, decreases the incidence of COPD exacerbation occurring within 21 days of the URTI. Methods: A total of 450 patients with stable, moderate to very severe COPD, were included in this investigator‐initiated and ‐driven, double‐blind, randomized, placebo‐controlled study. At inclusion, patients were assigned to open‐labeled low‐maintenance dose ICS/LABA. Each patient was randomized either to intensified‐dose ICS/LABA or placebo and instructed to start using this medication only in case of a URTI, at the onset of symptoms, twice daily, for 10 days. Measurements and Main Results: The incidence of any exacerbation following a URTI was not significantly decreased in the ICS/LABA group, as compared with placebo (14.6% vs. 16.2%; hazard ratio, 0.77; 95% confidence interval, 0.46‐1.33; P = 0.321) but the risk of severe exacerbation was decreased by 72% (hazard ratio, 0.28; 95% confidence interval, 0.11‐0.74%; P = 0.010). In the stratified analysis, effect size was modified by disease severity, fractional exhaled nitric oxide, and the body mass index‐airflow obstruction‐dyspnea, and exercise score. Compared with the stable period, evidence of at least one virus was significantly more common at URTI, 10 days after URTI, and at exacerbation. Conclusions: Intensified combination therapy with ICS/LABA for 10 days at URTI onset did not decrease the incidence of any COPD exacerbation but prevented severe exacerbation. Patients with more severe disease had a significant risk reduction for any exacerbation. Clinical trial registered with www.isrctn.com (ISRCTN45572998).