Jared T. Freeman

METARECOGNITION IN TIME-STRESSED DECISION MAKING: RECOGNIZING, CRITIQUING, AND CORRECTING

We describe a framework for decision making, called the recognition/metacognition (R/M) model, that explains how decision makers handle uncertainty and novelty while exploiting their experience in real-world domains. The model describes a set of critical-thinking strategies that supplement recognitional processes by verifying the results of recognition and correcting problems. Structured situation models causally organize information about a situation and provide a basis for metarecognitional processes. Metarecognitional processes determine when it is worthwhile to think more about a problem; identify evidence-conclusion relationships within a situation model; critique situation models for incompleteness, conflict, and unreliability; and prompt collection or retrieval of new information and revision of assumptions. We illustrate the R/M framework in the context of naval tactical decision making.

Thinking Naturally about Uncertainty

Methods for handling uncertainty should be evaluated in terms of their cognitive compatibility with real-world decision makers. Bayesian models of uncertainty demand precise up-front assessments of all problem elements and discourage the dynamic evolution of problem understanding. They handle missing or conflicting data by mathematical aggregation, while real-world decision makers regard gaps in knowledge and conflicting evidence as problems to be solved. Finally, they produce as output a statistical average rather than a coherent picture of the situation. Another approach to decision making, based on pattern-matching, does not address the ways in which situation pictures are evaluated and modified. A third approach, however, called the Recognition / Metacognition model, treats decision making under uncertainty as a problem-solving process that starts with the results of recognition, verifies them, and improves them where necessary. Critiquing strategies identify problems of incompleteness, conflict, and unreliability in situation models, and lead to correcting steps that retrieve or collect additional information or adopt assumptions. Training methods based on this model have been developed and tested with active-duty Naval officers.

Information Management: Understanding and Coping with Information Overload

Advances in technological capabilities have made it possible to transmit and access huge volumes of data across geographic expanses. These advances make information management more important than ever before. In the military arena, “digitization of the battlefield” is envisioned to bring information to soldiers wherever they may be. But the availability of larger and larger volumes of information, rather than supporting individuals in the performance of their work, may instead induce information overload. Large amounts of unfiltered information can impede individuals by increasing their workload, bogging them down with unnecessary details, and diverting their attention from critical elements.