Jari Kaivo-oja

Wild cards, weak signals and organisational improvisation

This paper addresses the need for reliable action guidelines that can be used by organisations in turbulent environments. Building on current conceptual and empirical research, we suggest an analytical approach for the management of surprising and potentially damaging events. In order to do so we use the wild card management system. Wild cards refer to sudden and unique incidents that can constitute turning points in the evolution of a certain trend or system. As the first of the two components of such a wild card system we advocate a weak signal methodology to take into account those wild cards that can be anticipated by scanning the decision environment. The second component, the nurture of improvisation capabilities, is designed to deal with ongoing crisis. This paper can be seen as part of a broader agenda on how to manage in conditions of continuous but unpredictable change.

The European Union balancing between CO2 reduction commitments and growth policies: decomposition analyses

Abstract This article is an empirical study of the whole energy system development in the European Union. The analysis covers the years 1960–1998. The decomposition analysis of energy and CO 2 intensities of the different EU countries and Norway reveal large differences between the individual countries. The reasons for the differences in energy intensity changes are explained by the structural changes of the economies. The changes in CO 2 intensities are explained by the energy intensity changes and by the changes is fuel switching. The study verifies the conclusion that there are still big challenges in the harmonisation of energy and climate policy in the EU.

Decomposition Analysis of Finnish Material Flows: 1960–1996

To the extent that environmental impacts are the consequence of the magnitude of total material input into production in an economy, they can be lessened by reducing the use of materials—by concentrating on what has been called qualitative growth. This article presents a summary of Finnish resource use over the period 1960–1996 as a means of evaluating the trends in material use and providing a basis for assessments of sustainability. It adapts the technique of decomposition analysis developed in the field of energy studies to distinguish the effects of changes in aggregate economic activity (“activity effect”), composition of industrial activity (“structural effect”) and materials intensity of use (“intensity effect”) on a sectoral basis.p According to the analysis presented here, materials consumption in Finland has grown substantially between 1960 and 1996 in the electricity, gas and water supply, pulp and paper production, civil engineering, and mining and quarrying sectors. In the same period, the ratio of GDP/mass of material mobilized has improved by 175 percent. Economic growth has caused the largest increases in materials use in the building of infrastructures; for example roads, waterways, means of supplying electricity, gas, and water, and in the production of paper and paper products. The least growth took place in the transport, basic metals production, and mining and quarrying sectors.

The EKC Hypothesis Does Not Hold for Direct Material Flows: Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis Tests for Direct Material Flows in Five Industrial Countries

This study analyses the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis (EKC) with direct material flow data from the USA, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands and Finland in the years 1975 to 1994. Recently, there has been a discussion concerning the relevance of the EKC hypothesis suggesting that also the intensity of material use should decline with income growth. The EKC hypothesis has not been widely tested with direct material flow data, and this paper presents one of the first attempts to do such tests. The results of the empirical hypothesis tests indicate that the EKC hypothesis does not hold in the case of aggregated direct material flows among industrialised countries like Germany, Japan, the USA, the Netherlands and Finland.

Environmental taxes on fuels and electricity — some experiences from the Nordic countries

In economic theory, environment-based energy taxation provides a direct financial incentive for environmentally sound economic behaviour in the energy field. In practice, only a few countries have implemented such taxes unilaterally in the 1990s. To be effective, environment-based energy taxes seem to need international implementation. The EU Commission has made three proposals in 1992, 1995 and 1997, but so far none of them has proceeded in the negotiations. In this article, we focus on implemented environmental taxes on fuels and electricity in the Nordic countries. Firstly, the idea of environment-based taxes as a part of sustainable energy policy is presented. Secondly, we review the impacts of this kind of taxes on the environment, energy production and consumption, income distribution, and competitiveness via estimates presented in the literal sources. Thirdly, we review comparative studies of environmental taxes on energy from a methodological perspective. And finally, we analyse the use of energy tax comparisons in political decision-making. A recent energy tax reform in Finland is used as an example.

ASEAN tigers and sustainability of energy use--decomposition analysis of energy and CO2 efficiency dynamics

Abstract This study is a comparative analysis of the development of energy intensity and CO2 emission intensity in the ASEAN countries in the years 1971–97. The reasons and driving forces behind the changes are studied in the article using a complete decomposition methodology. The decomposition analysis explains energy use or CO2 emissions with three different factors: activity effect, structural effect and intensity effect. The authors provide an analysis of dynamic changes of energy consumption and CO2 emission flows. Intensity effects on energy use and CO2 emissions revealed large differences in the performance of ASEAN countries. An interesting finding of the study is that in the 1990s the intensity effects on CO2 emissions in ASEAN countries have started to increase indicating decreasing CO2 efficiencies of the economies. The general observation on the basis of decomposition analyses is that the phase of industrialization is increasing the energy intensity of the nations and, when the increased energy demand is fulfilled with fossil fuels, the CO2 emissions will inevitable grow. However, it has to be recognized that the CO2 emissions per capita in ASEAN countries are very low (except in Singapore) compared with many OECD countries.

Smart Regions: Two Cases of Crowdsourcing for Regional Development

Despite a certified need for stronger ties between regional entrepreneurial ecosystems and larger networks, and despite an emerging discourse on beneficial interlinks between crowdsourcing and urban development, the relationship between crowdsourcing and regional development is underexplored. Unlike the few existing reports on voluntary bottom-up crowdsourcing initiatives for regional development, the focus of the present article is on two cases of top-down initiatives of crowdsourcing for regional development launched by institutional actors in the Swiss Canton of Valais and the Italian autonomous province, South Tyrol. The results of a comparison of the two cases suggest consideration of the strength of regional ties as factors that undermine crowd wisdom and flow as well as exercising caution with quantitative idea selection processes, at least in the context of smaller regional crowdsourcing projects.

Delphi expert panels in the scenario‐based strategic planning of agriculture

Purpose – This article seeks to present approaches on the utilisation of expert information in strategic planning practices.Design/methodology/approach – The article emphasises alternative scenario development for the bases of decision making. This is done through an evaluation of Delphi studies and their feasibility for scenario construction. As an application of the information processes, both narrow and broad expert information processes are presented as alternative sources for solutions in public sector strategic planning.Findings – Basically, there are two alternative ways to utilise Delphi studies in strategic planning and decision making: a broad expert information process (BEIP) model; and a narrow expert information process (NEIP) model.Practical implications – As a broad process, an example is presented of the alternative future outcomes and the argumentation around it in the share of genetically modified plant varieties in commercial farming in Finland.Originality/value – This theoretical revie...

The ecological transparency of the information society

Abstract A de-linking of pollution from economic growth and de-materialisation can probably be seen as the most important single characteristic of sustainable development. With regard to this, ecological transparency means understanding all human activities, processes and patterns that have an impact on the potential for sustainable development. Closely linked with this is the idea that the ecological footprint of the information society should be concerned with the environmental implications of its generations, applications and the disposability of information and communication technologies (ICTs). This paper aims at developing scenarios, and a set of criteria, plus indicators as tools for identifying various environmental impacts inherent in the information society. Furthermore, it aims for the successful unification of the positive factors of the information society with ecologically sustainable development. It is concluded that policy plans for the information society would benefit from the enhanced level of ecological transparency the information society can provide, as presented via the indicators mentioned later in the text. Further, it is suggested that prerequisites should be created for evaluating the implications of the information society and for the application of related information society technologies. Such an approach could be labelled an Information Society Assessment.

Sustainability Evaluation Frameworks and Alternative Analytical Scenarios of National Economies

In this article a macro-oriented conceptual framework of the conditions necessary for the advancement of sustainability within an economy and society is formulated and analysed. The theoretical framework presented is a set of logical identities, which define relationships between the total environmental stress (TES) and the basic indicators of economic, technological and social development. The framework, called the Total Environmental Stress Approach, provides necessary but not sufficient conditions for advancing sustainability. Scenario alternatives utilizing the TES approach with data from Finland are presented to evaluate the theoretical framework.