Jaroslaw Kwapien

Wavelet versus detrended fluctuation analysis of multifractal structures.

We perform a comparative study of applicability of the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) and the wavelet transform modulus maxima (WTMM) method in proper detecting of monofractal and multifractal character of data. We quantify the performance of both methods by using different sorts of artificial signals generated according to a few well-known exactly soluble mathematical models: monofractal fractional Brownian motion, bifractal Lévy flights, and different sorts of multifractal binomial cascades. Our results show that in the majority of situations in which one does not know a priori the fractal properties of a process, choosing MFDFA should be recommended. In particular, WTMM gives biased outcomes for the fractional Brownian motion with different values of Hurst exponent, indicating spurious multifractality. In some cases WTMM can also give different results if one applies different wavelets. We do not exclude using WTMM in real data analysis, but it occurs that while one may apply MFDFA in a more automatic fashion, WTMM must be applied with care. In the second part of our work, we perform an analogous analysis on empirical data coming from the American and from the German stock market. For this data both methods detect rich multifractality in terms of broad f(alpha), but MFDFA suggests that this multifractality is poorer than in the case of WTMM.

Components of multifractality in high-frequency stock returns

We analyzed multifractal properties of 5-minute stock returns from a period of over two years for 100 highly capitalized American companies. The two sources: fat-tailed probability distributions and nonlinear temporal correlations, vitally contribute to the observed multifractal dynamics of the returns. For majority of the companies the temporal correlations constitute a much more significant related factor, however.

Coupling of regional activations in a human brain during an object and face affect recognition task

Magnetic field tomography (MFT) was used to extract estimates for distributed source activity from average and single trial MEG signals recorded while subjects identified objects (including faces) and facial expressions of emotion. Regions of interest (ROIs) were automatically identified from the MFT solutions of the average signal for each subject. For one subject the entire set of MFT estimates obtained from unaveraged data was also used to compute simultaneous time series for the single trial activity in different ROIs. Three pairs of homologous areas in each hemisphere were selected for further analysis: posterior calcarine sulcus (PCS), fusiform gyrus (FM), and the amygdaloid complex (AM). Mutual information (MI) between each pair of the areas was computed from all single trial time series and contrasted for different tasks (object or emotion recognition) and categories within each task. The MI analysis shows that through feed‐forward and feedback linkages, the “computation” load associated with the task of identifying objects and emotions is spread across both space (different ROIs and hemispheres) and time (different latencies and delays in couplings between areas)—well within 200 ms, different objects separate first in the right hemisphere PCS and FG coupling while different emotions separate in the right hemisphere FG and AM coupling, particularly at latencies after 200 ms. Hum. Brain Mapping 11:77–92, 2000.

Quantitative features of multifractal subtleties in time series

Based on the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) and on the Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima (WTMM) methods we investigate the origin of multifractality in the time series. Series fluctuating according to a qGaussian distribution, both uncorrelated and correlated in time, are used. For the uncorrelated series at the border (q=5/3) between the Gaussian and the Levy basins of attraction asymptotically we find a phase-like transition between monofractal and bifractal characteristics. This indicates that these may solely be the specific nonlinear temporal correlations that organize the series into a genuine multifractal hierarchy. For analyzing various features of multifractality due to such correlations, we use the model series generated from the binomial cascade as well as empirical series. Then, within the temporal ranges of well developed power-law correlations we find a fast convergence in all multifractal measures. Besides of its practical significance this fact may reflect another manifestation of a conjectured q-generalized Central Limit Theorem.

Detrended fluctuation analysis made flexible to detect range of cross-correlated fluctuations

The detrended cross-correlation coefficient ρ(DCCA) has recently been proposed to quantify the strength of cross-correlations on different temporal scales in bivariate, nonstationary time series. It is based on the detrended cross-correlation and detrended fluctuation analyses (DCCA and DFA, respectively) and can be viewed as an analog of the Pearson coefficient in the case of the fluctuation analysis. The coefficient ρ(DCCA) works well in many practical situations but by construction its applicability is limited to detection of whether two signals are generally cross-correlated, without the possibility to obtain information on the amplitude of fluctuations that are responsible for those cross-correlations. In order to introduce some related flexibility, here we propose an extension of ρ(DCCA) that exploits the multifractal versions of DFA and DCCA: multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis and multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis, respectively. The resulting new coefficient ρ(q) not only is able to quantify the strength of correlations but also allows one to identify the range of detrended fluctuation amplitudes that are correlated in two signals under study. We show how the coefficient ρ(q) works in practical situations by applying it to stochastic time series representing processes with long memory: autoregressive and multiplicative ones. Such processes are often used to model signals recorded from complex systems and complex physical phenomena like turbulence, so we are convinced that this new measure can successfully be applied in time-series analysis. In particular, we present an example of such application to highly complex empirical data from financial markets. The present formulation can straightforwardly be extended to multivariate data in terms of the q-dependent counterpart of the correlation matrices and then to the network representation.

The foreign exchange market: return distributions, multifractality, anomalous multifractality and the Epps effect

We present a systematic study of various statistical characteristics of high-frequency returns from the foreign exchange market. This study is based on six exchange rates forming two triangles: EUR-GBP-USD and GBP-CHF-JPY. It is shown that the exchange rate return fluctuations for all the pairs considered are well described by the nonextensive statistics in terms of q-Gaussians. There exist some small quantitative variations in the nonextensivity q-parameter values for different exchange rates and this can be related to the importance of a given exchange rate in the worlds currency trade. Temporal correlations organize the series of returns such that they develop the multifractal characteristics for all the exchange rates with a varying degree of symmetry of the singularity spectrum f(alpha) however. The most symmetric spectrum is identified for the GBP/USD. We also form time series of triangular residual returns and find that the distributions of their fluctuations develop disproportionately heavier tails as compared to small fluctuations which excludes description in terms of q-Gaussians. The multifractal characteristics for these residual returns reveal such anomalous properties like negative singularity exponents and even negative singularity spectra. Such anomalous multifractal measures have so far been considered in the literature in connection with the diffusion limited aggregation and with turbulence. We find that market inefficiency on short time scales leads to the occurrence of the Epps effect on much longer time scales. Although the currency market is much more liquid than the stock markets and it has much larger transaction frequency, the building-up of correlations takes up to several hours - time that does not differ much from what is observed in the stock markets. This may suggest that non-synchronicity of transactions is not the unique source of the observed effect.

Quantifying the dynamics of financial correlations

A novel application of the correlation matrix formalism to study dynamics of the financial evolution is presented. This formalism allows to quantify the memory effects as well as some potential repeatable intraday structures in the financial time series. The present study is based on the high-frequency Deutsche Aktienindex (DAX) data over the time period between November 1997 and December 1999 and demonstrates a power of the method. In this way, two significant new aspects of the DAX evolution are identified: (i) the memory effects turn out to be sizably shorter than what the standard autocorrelation function analysis seems to indicate and (ii) there exist short term repeatable structures in fluctuations that are governed by a distinct dynamics. The former of these results may provide an argument in favour of the market efficiency while the latter one may indicate origin of the difficulty in reaching a Gaussian limit, expected from the central limit theorem, in the distribution of returns on longer time horizons.

Stock market return distributions: from past to present

We show that recent stock market fluctuations are characterized by the cumulative distributions whose tails on short, minute time scales exhibit power scaling with the scaling index α>3 and this index tends to increase quickly with decreasing sampling frequency. Our study is based on high-frequency recordings of the S&P500, DAX and WIG20 indices over the interval May 2004–May 2006. Our findings suggest that dynamics of the contemporary market may differ from the one observed in the past. This effect indicates a constantly increasing efficiency of world markets.

Nonextensive statistical features of the Polish stock market fluctuations

The statistics of return distributions on various time scales constitutes one of the most informative characteristics of the financial dynamics. Here we present a systematic study of such characteristics for the Polish stock market index WIG20 over the period 04.01.1999 - 31.10.2005 for the time lags ranging from one minute up to one hour. This market is commonly classified as emerging. Still on the shortest time scales studied we find that the tails of the return distributions are consistent with the inverse cubic power-law, as identified previously for majority of the mature markets. Within the time scales studied a quick and considerable departure from this law towards a Gaussian can however be traced. Interestingly, all the forms of the distributions observed can be comprised by the single

Temporal correlations versus noise in the correlation matrix formalism: An example of the brain auditory response

q