Jason Bram

Has September 11 Affected New York City's Growth Potential?

In addition to exacting a tremendous human toll, the September 11 attack on the World Trade Center caused billions of dollars in property damage and a temporary contraction in New York Citys economy. This article explores the effect of these events on the longer run economic prospects for the city. For many years, growth in New York has taken the form of rising property prices, reflecting a steady transition from low- to high-paying jobs. During the 1990s, the citys expansion was built on several factors, including improving fiscal conditions, better public services, and shifting industrial and population structures that favored job and income growth. The study suggests that the effects of September 11 will not eliminate these advantages in the medium term; in fact, preliminary indications are that the city remains an attractive location for businesses as well as households. Nevertheless, New York City will face many challenges as it attempts to return to its pre-attack growth path.

USING REGIONAL ECONOMIC INDEXES TO FORECAST TAX BASES: EVIDENCE FROM NEW YORK

This paper evaluates the use of measures of regional economic activity to forecast tax revenues for New York State and New York City at 3-, 6-, and 12-month horizons. We construct sales- and withholding-tax base series and then apply the methodology of Stock and Watson (1989, 1991) to estimate regional indexes of coincident economic indicators. Employing an out-of-sample forecasting framework, we find that the use of the coincident indexes leads to statistically and economically significant improvements in tax base forecasts compared to those generated from univariate autoregressions. In addition, the coincident indexes produce forecasts that are generally more accurate than forecasts that rely on the use of the coincident indicators separately. Though our analysis focuses on forecasting movements in tax revenue at the state or local level, it is also intended to draw attention to the value the indexes may provide in other applications.

Can New York City Bank on Wall Street

The securities industry is more important than ever to the New York City economy, and a protracted downturn in the industrys employment could seriously hurt the overall job picture. Increased stability in other New York City industries, however, could help soften the economic effects of such a downturn.

To Buy or Not to Buy? The Changing Relationship between Manhattan Rents and Home Prices

Much of the nation has experienced steep declines in housing prices in recent years. In Manhattan, however, apartment sales prices did not fall as sharply. A study of price-rent ratios in the New York City borough concludes that, while apartment rents are driven by supply and demand forces, apartment sales prices are driven in part by speculative factors, and they sometimes rise or fall to levels incommensurate with prevailing rents. Manhattan price-rent ratios, although off their 2008 highs, are still up dramatically over the past two decades, suggesting less financial “value” today in an apartment purchase there.

Is the Worst Over? Economic Indexes and the Course of the Recession in New York and New Jersey

The New York-New Jersey region entered a pronounced downturn in 2008, but the pace of decline eased considerably in spring 2009 and then leveled off in July, according to three key Federal Reserve Bank of New York economic indexes. These developments, in conjunction with a growing consensus that the national economy is headed for recovery, suggest that the worst may be over for the regions economy. However, a downsizing of the areas critical finance sector could pose a major risk to the economic outlook going forward--particularly for New York City.

Tourism and New York City's Economy

In New York City, tourism has made impressive gains in recent years, particularly in the foreign visitor segment. While not large enough to propel the citys economy, this long-term growth industry is critical to maintaining the local export base and providing jobs to low-skilled workers.

The Linkage between Regional Economic Indexes and Tax Bases: Evidence from New York

This paper examines the linkage between economic activity and tax revenues for New York State and New York City. Drawing upon the methodology of Stock and Watson, we use a dynamic single-factor model to estimate indexes of coincident economic indicators. We also construct measures of the sales and withholding tax bases. To conduct an empirical analysis of the relationship between the indexes of economic activity and the tax base series, we use vector autoregression and error correction models. The results provide strong evidence that the coincident indexes contain useful information for explaining monthly growth in the tax bases. However, much less evidence exists of a statistically significant linkage from the tax bases to the coincident indexes.

Further Observations on the Economic Effects on New York City of the Attack on the World Trade Center

We review our earlier studies that estimated the overall economic cost of the 9-11 attacks on New York City. Since the attack took place during a national and local recession, we emphasize the importance of controlling for economic conditions to obtain a precise estimate of the attacks effects. First, we estimate the physical capital loss, based on the cost required to clean up the site and repair and replace the destroyed and damaged infrastructure. The estimated foregone lifetime earnings of the workers killed in the attack are used to gauge the loss of human capital. The total physical capital loss was estimated to be

Dynamics of the Second District economy

21.6 billion and the lifetime earnings loss was estimated to be

Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure? a sentiment index horse race

7.8 billion, yielding a total estimated loss of