Jason J. Jones

A 61-Million-Person Experiment in Social Influence and Political Mobilization

Human behaviour is thought to spread through face-to-face social networks, but it is difficult to identify social influence effects in observational studies, and it is unknown whether online social networks operate in the same way–. Here we report results from a randomized controlled trial of political mobilization messages delivered to 61 million Facebook users during the 2010 US congressional elections. The results show that the messages directly influenced political self-expression, information seeking and real-world voting behaviour of millions of people. Furthermore, the messages not only influenced the users who received them but also the users’ friends, and friends of friends. The effect of social transmission on real-world voting was greater than the direct effect of the messages themselves, and nearly all the transmission occurred between ‘close friends’ who were more likely to have a face-to-face relationship. These results suggest that strong ties are instrumental for spreading both online and real-world behaviour in human social networks.

Sleep does not enhance motor sequence learning.

Improvements in motor sequence performance have been observed after a delay involving sleep. This finding has been taken as evidence for an active sleep consolidation process that enhances subsequent performance. In a review of this literature, however, the authors observed 4 aspects of data analyses and experimental design that could lead to improved performance on the test in the absence of any sleep consolidation: (a) masking of learning effects in the averaged data, (b) masking of reactive inhibition effects in the averaged training data, (c) time-of-day and time-since-sleep confounds, and (d) a gradual buildup of fatigue over the course of massed (i.e., concentrated) training. In 2 experiments the authors show that when these factors are controlled for, or when their effects are substantially reduced, the sleep enhancement effect is eliminated. Whereas sleep may play a role in protection from forgetting of motor skills, it does not result in performance enhancement.

Inferring Tie Strength from Online Directed Behavior

Some social connections are stronger than others. People have not only friends, but also best friends. Social scientists have long recognized this characteristic of social connections and researchers frequently use the term tie strength to refer to this concept. We used online interaction data (specifically, Facebook interactions) to successfully identify real-world strong ties. Ground truth was established by asking users themselves to name their closest friends in real life. We found the frequency of online interaction was diagnostic of strong ties, and interaction frequency was much more useful diagnostically than were attributes of the user or the user’s friends. More private communications (messages) were not necessarily more informative than public communications (comments, wall posts, and other interactions).

Is the mind inherently forward looking? Comparing prediction and retrodiction

It has been suggested that prediction may be an organizing principle of the mind and/or the neocortex, with cognitive machinery specifically engineered to detect forward-looking temporal relationships, rather than merely associating temporally contiguous events. There is a remarkable absence of behavioral tests of this idea, however. To address this gap, we showed subjects sequences of shapes governed by stochastic Markov processes, and then asked them to choose which shape reliably came after a probe shape (prediction test) or before a probe shape (retrodiction test). Prediction was never superior to retrodiction, even when subjects were forewarned of a forward-directional test.

Social Networks and Labor Markets: How Strong Ties Relate to Job Finding on Facebook’s Social Network

Social networks are important for finding jobs, but which ties are most useful? Granovetter has suggested that “weak ties” are more valuable than “strong ties,” since strong ties have redundant information, while weak ties have new information. Using 6 million Facebook users’ data, we find evidence for the opposite. We proxy for job help by identifying people who eventually work with a pre-existing friend. Using objective tie strength measures and our job help proxy, we find that most people are helped through one of their numerous weak ties but a single stronger tie is significantly more valuable at the margin.

Social influence and political mobilization: Further evidence from a randomized experiment in the 2012 U.S. presidential election

A large-scale experiment during the 2010 U.S. Congressional Election demonstrated a positive effect of an online get-out-the-vote message on real world voting behavior. Here, we report results from a replication of the experiment conducted during the U.S. Presidential Election in 2012. In spite of the fact that get-out-the-vote messages typically yield smaller effects during high-stakes elections due to saturation of mobilization efforts from many sources, a significant increase in voting was again observed. Voting also increased significantly among the close friends of those who received the message to go to the polls, and the total effect on the friends was likely larger than the direct effect, suggesting that understanding social influence effects is potentially even more important than understanding the direct effects of messaging. These results replicate earlier work and they add to growing evidence that online social networks can be instrumental for spreading offline behaviors.

Yahtzee: An Anonymized Group Level Matching Procedure

Researchers often face the problem of needing to protect the privacy of subjects while also needing to integrate data that contains personal information from diverse data sources. The advent of computational social science and the enormous amount of data about people that is being collected makes protecting the privacy of research subjects ever more important. However, strict privacy procedures can hinder the process of joining diverse sources of data that contain information about specific individual behaviors. In this paper we present a procedure to keep information about specific individuals from being “leaked” or shared in either direction between two sources of data without need of a trusted third party. To achieve this goal, we randomly assign individuals to anonymous groups before combining the anonymized information between the two sources of data. We refer to this method as the Yahtzee procedure, and show that it performs as predicted by theoretical analysis when we apply it to data from Facebook and public voter records.

Social Endorsement Cues and Political Participation

Which individuals are most responsive to get-out-the-vote (GOTV) messages that emphasize the social aspects of voting? Recent literature has shown that GOTV messages that emphasize the social environment in which an individual is embedded are particularly effective at increasing voting rates. Until now, we have not had good estimates for the types of people for whom social GOTV messages are most effective. We report a new set of disaggregated results of a randomized controlled trial of political mobilization messages delivered to 61 million Facebook users during the 2010 U.S. Congressional elections. The results suggest that social endorsement cues are differentially effective for different types of political behaviors—political expression, information seeking, and voting—and for different kinds of people, based on both demographic and social characteristics, raising new questions about the mechanisms explaining social pressure effects.

Network Experiments Through Academic-Industry Collaboration

Our main goal in this chapter is to summarize and describe our work on get-out-the-vote experiments run on the Facebook social media platform. We ran randomized experiments and observed both direct effects—a message on Election Day made Facebook users more likely to vote and cascading effects in the social network—the friends of treated users became more likely to vote. Collaborating with Facebook vastly increased the scope of our research project from what we originally planned. We will also discuss why academic collaboration with industry is not only important in general, but particularly important for understanding complex social systems. We will conclude with a discussion of some of the opportunities we see for scientific advancement in this area.

American Political-Party Affiliation as a Predictor of Usage of an Adultery Website

The more politically conservative Americans are, the more restrictive their sexual attitudes are. A natural follow-up question is how this difference in attitudes relates to actual behavior. But self-reports of sexual behavior may be compromised by a social desirability bias that is influenced by the very sexual attitudes at issue. We employed a non-self-reported measure of sexual behavior: usage of the adultery-focused dating website Ashley Madison. Linking an August 2015 leak of user data from Ashley Madison to 2012 voter registration rolls from five U.S. states, we found 80,000 matches between 200,000 Ashley Madison user accounts and 50 million voters. According to simple rates in the sample, and also to predictively validated regression models controlling for state, gender, and age, we found that Democrats were least likely to use Ashley Madison, Libertarians were most likely, and Republicans, Greens, and unaffiliated voters were in between. Our results provide support for theories arguing that people with stricter sexual attitudes are paradoxically more likely to engage in deviant sexual behavior.