Jason M. Lindo

Are children really inferior goods? Evidence from displacement-driven income shocks

This paper explores the causal link between income and fertility by analyzing womens fertility response to the large and permanent income shock generated by a husbands job displacement. I find that the shock reduces total fertility, suggesting that the causal effect of income on fertility is positive. A model that incorporates the time cost of children and assortative matching of spouses can simultaneously explain this result and the negative cross-sectional relationship. I also find that a husbands displacement accelerates childbearing, which is consistent with lifecycle models of fertility in which the incentive to delay is driven by expected earnings growth.

Heaping‐Induced Bias in Regression‐Discontinuity Designs

This study uses Monte Carlo simulations to demonstrate that regression-discontinuity designs arrive at biased estimates when attributes related to outcomes predict heaping in the running variable. After showing that our usual diagnostics are poorly suited to identifying this type of problem, we provide alternatives. We also demonstrate how the magnitude and direction of the bias varies with bandwidth choice and the location of the data heaps relative to the treatment threshold. Finally, we discuss approaches to correcting for this type of problem before considering these issues in several non-simulated environments.

Aggregation and the estimated effects of economic conditions on health

This paper considers the relationship between economic conditions and health with a focus on different approaches to geographic aggregation. After reviewing the tradeoffs associated with more- and less-disaggregated analyses, I update earlier state-level analyses of mortality and infant health and then consider how the estimated effects vary when the analysis is conducted at differing levels of geographic aggregation. This analysis reveals that the results are sensitive to the level of geographic aggregation with more-disaggregated analyses-particularly county-level analyses-routinely producing estimates that are smaller in magnitude. Further analyses suggest this is due to spillover effects of economic conditions on health outcomes across counties.

Drawn into Violence: Evidence on 'What Makes a Criminal' from the Vietnam Draft Lotteries

Draft lottery number assignment during the Vietnam era provides a natural experiment to examine the effects of military service on crime. Using exact dates of birth for inmates in state and federal prisons in 1979, 1986, and 1991, we find robust evidence of effects on violent crimes among whites. In particular, we find that draft eligibility increases incarceration rates for violent crimes by 14 to 19 percent. Based on Angrist and Chens (2008) estimate of the effect of draft eligibility on veteran status, these estimates imply that military service increases the probability of incarceration for a violent crime by 0.27 percentage points. Results for nonwhites are not robust. We conduct two falsification tests, one that applies each of the three binding lotteries to unaffected cohorts and another that considers the effects of lotteries that were not used to draft servicemen.

Breaking The Link Between Legal Access To Alcohol And Motor Vehicle Accidents: Evidence From New South Wales.

A large literature has documented significant public health benefits associated with the minimum legal drinking age in the USA, particularly because of the resulting effects on motor vehicle accidents. These benefits form the primary basis for continued efforts to restrict youth access to alcohol. It is important to keep in mind that policymakers have a wide variety of alcohol-control options available to them, and understanding how these policies may complement or substitute for one another can improve policy making moving forward. Towards this end, we propose that investigating the causal effects of the minimum legal drinking age in New South Wales, Australia, provides a particularly informative case study, because Australian states are among the world leaders in their efforts against drunk driving. Using an age-based regression discontinuity design applied to restricted-use data from several sources, we find no evidence that legal access to alcohol has effects on motor vehicle accidents of any type in New South Wales, despite having large effects on drinking and on hospitalizations due to alcohol abuse. Copyright

Any Press is Good Press? The Unanticipated Effects of Title IX Investigations on University Outcomes

Since 2011, when the landmark “Dear Colleague” letter declared that the Department of Education (DoE) would use equal-access requirements of federal law to remediate sexual assault on college campuses, 458 investigations have been opened. This letter was withdrawn in 2017 and it remains uncertain how the DoE will handle the issue in the future. We examine the effects of the investigations arising from the 2011 policy change on university outcomes. We find that applications and enrollment increase in response to Title IX investigations, for both males and females. We find little evidence of effects on degree completion or donations.

Should the legal age for buying alcohol be raised to 21 years

TO THE EDITOR: Toumbourou and colleagues argue that the Australian legal age for buying alcohol should be increased.1 However, they overstate their case by only citing research that supports their position, giving an impression of scientific consensus on several key issues when there is strong contrary evidence. They consider the effects of legal access to alcohol on traffic safety. But they neglect to mention the only recent Australian evidence on this topic, which found that legal access did not increase the risk of serious motor vehicle accidents in New South Wales.2 They also cite research suggesting that lowering the buying age from 20 to 18 years in New Zealand impaired traffic safety, based on an increase in accidents involving alcohol among 18–19-year-olds relative to 20–24-year-olds after the policy change.3 However, a follow-up study found that the crash rate for 18–19-year-olds was rising relative to the older comparison group before the policy change was enacted, and that there was no evidence that the policy change affected traffic safety.4 They also dismiss the possibility that alcohol and illicit drugs may be substitutes for each other, ignoring recent contrary evidence.5,6 More broadly, their argument for increasing the legal age for buying alcohol is predicated on the idea that any policy change that promotes health should be undertaken, without any consideration of how the magnitude of such health benefits compares to the costs of implementing such a policy.