Javier Borge-Holthoefer

The Dynamics of Protest Recruitment through an Online Network

The recent wave of mobilizations in the Arab world and across Western countries has generated much discussion on how digital media is connected to the diffusion of protests. We examine that connection using data from the surge of mobilizations that took place in Spain in May 2011. We study recruitment patterns in the Twitter network and find evidence of social influence and complex contagion. We identify the network position of early participants (i.e. the leaders of the recruitment process) and of the users who acted as seeds of message cascades (i.e. the spreaders of information). We find that early participants cannot be characterized by a typical topological position but spreaders tend to be more central in the network. These findings shed light on the connection between online networks, social contagion, and collective dynamics, and offer an empirical test to the recruitment mechanisms theorized in formal models of collective action.

Discrete-time Markov chain approach to contact-based disease spreading in complex networks

Many epidemic processes in networks spread by stochastic contacts among their connected vertices. There are two limiting cases widely analyzed in the physics literature, the so-called contact process (CP) where the contagion is expanded at a certain rate from an infected vertex to one neighbor at a time, and the reactive process (RP) in which an infected individual effectively contacts all its neighbors to expand the epidemics. However, a more realistic scenario is obtained from the interpolation between these two cases, considering a certain number of stochastic contacts per unit time. Here we propose a discrete-time formulation of the problem of contact-based epidemic spreading. We resolve a family of models, parameterized by the number of stochastic contact trials per unit time, that range from the CP to the RP. In contrast to the common heterogeneous mean-field approach, we focus on the probability of infection of individual nodes. Using this formulation, we can construct the whole phase diagram of the different infection models and determine their critical properties.

Broadcasters and Hidden Influentials in Online Protest Diffusion

This article explores the growth of online mobilizations using data from the indignados (outraged) movement in Spain, which emerged under the influence of the revolution in Egypt and as a precursor to the global Occupy mobilizations. The data track Twitter activity around the protests that took place in May 2011, which led to the formation of camp sites in dozens of cities all over the country and massive daily demonstrations during the week prior to the elections of May 22. We reconstruct the network of tens of thousands of users and monitor their message activity for a month (April 25, 2011, to May 25, 2011). Using both the structure of the network and levels of activity in message exchange, we identify four types of users and analyze their role in the growth of the protest. Drawing from theories of online activism and research on information diffusion in networks, this article centers on the following two questions: How does protest information spread in online networks? And how do different actors contribute to the growth of activity? The article aims to inform the theoretical debate on whether digital technologies are changing the logic of collective action and to provide evidence of how new media facilitates the emergence of massive offline mobilizations.

Absence of influential spreaders in rumor dynamics.

Recent research [Kitsak, Gallos, Havlin, Liljeros, Muchnik, Stanley, and Makse, Nature Physics 6, 888 (2010)] has suggested that coreness, and not degree, constitutes a better topological descriptor to identify influential spreaders in complex networks. This hypothesis has been verified in the context of disease spreading. Here, we instead focus on rumor spreading models, which are more suited for social contagion and information propagation. To this end, we perform extensive computer simulations on top of several real-world networks and find opposite results. Namely, we show that the spreading capabilities of the nodes do not depend on their k-core index, which instead determines whether or not a given node prevents the diffusion of a rumor to a system-wide scale. Our findings are relevant both for sociological studies of contagious dynamics and for the design of efficient commercial viral processes.

Structural and Dynamical Patterns on Online Social Networks: The Spanish May 15th Movement as a Case Study

The number of people using online social networks in their everyday life is continuously growing at a pace never saw before. This new kind of communication has an enormous impact on opinions, cultural trends, information spreading and even in the commercial success of new products. More importantly, social online networks have revealed as a fundamental organizing mechanism in recent country-wide social movements. In this paper, we provide a quantitative analysis of the structural and dynamical patterns emerging from the activity of an online social network around the ongoing May 15th (15M) movement in Spain. Our network is made up by users that exchanged tweets in a time period of one month, which includes the birth and stabilization of the 15M movement. We characterize in depth the growth of such dynamical network and find that it is scale-free with communities at the mesoscale. We also find that its dynamics exhibits typical features of critical systems such as robustness and power-law distributions for several quantities. Remarkably, we report that the patterns characterizing the spreading dynamics are asymmetric, giving rise to a clear distinction between information sources and sinks. Our study represents a first step towards the use of data from online social media to comprehend modern societal dynamics.

Semantic Networks: Structure and Dynamics

During the last ten years several studies have appeared regarding language complexity. Research on this issue began soon after the burst of a new movement of interest and research in the study of complex networks, i.e., networks whose structure is irregular, complex and dynamically evolving in time. In the first years, network approach to language mostly focused on a very abstract and general overview of language complexity, and few of them studied how this complexity is actually embodied in humans or how it affects cognition. However research has slowly shifted from the language-oriented towards a more cognitive-oriented point of view. This review first offers a brief summary on the methodological and formal foundations of complex networks, then it attempts a general vision of research activity on language from a complex networks perspective, and specially highlights those efforts with cognitive-inspired aim.

Assessing the Bias in Samples of Large Online Networks

We consider the sampling bias introduced in the study of online networks when collecting data through publicly available APIs (application programming interfaces). We assess differences between three samples of Twitter activity; the empirical context is given by political protests taking place in May 2012. We track online communication around these protests for the period of one month, and reconstruct the network of mentions and re-tweets according to the search and the streaming APIs, and to different filtering parameters. We find that smaller samples do not offer an accurate picture of peripheral activity; we also find that the bias is greater for the network of mentions, partly because of the higher influence of snowballing in identifying relevant nodes. We discuss the implications of this bias for the study of diffusion dynamics and political communication through social media, and advocate the need for more uniform sampling procedures to study online communication.

Locating privileged spreaders on an online social network.

Social media have provided plentiful evidence of their capacity for information diffusion. Fads and rumors but also social unrest and riots travel fast and affect large fractions of the population participating in online social networks (OSNs). This has spurred much research regarding the mechanisms that underlie social contagion, and also who (if any) can unleash system-wide information dissemination. Access to real data, both regarding topology--the network of friendships--and dynamics--the actual way in which OSNs users interact, is crucial to decipher how the former facilitates the latters success, understood as efficiency in information spreading. With the quantitative analysis that stems from complex network theory, we discuss who (and why) has privileged spreading capabilities when it comes to information diffusion. This is done considering the evolution of an episode of political protest which took place in Spain, spanning one month in 2011.

Cascading Behaviour in Complex Socio-Technical Networks

Most human interactions today take place with the mediation of ICTs. This is extending the boundaries of interdependence: the group of reference, ideas, and behaviour to which people are exposed is larger and less restricted to old geographical and cultural boundaries; but it is also providing more and better data with which to build more informative models on the effects of social interactions, amongst them, the way in which contagion and cascades diffuse in social networks. Online data are not only helping us gain deeper insights into the structural complexity of social systems; they are also illuminating the consequences of that complexity, especially around collective and temporal dynamics. This paper offers an overview of the models and applications that have been developed in what is still a nascent area of research, as well as an outline of immediate lines of work that promise to open new vistas in our understanding of cascading behaviour in social networks.

The role of hidden influentials in the diffusion of online information cascades

In a diversified context with multiple social networking sites, heterogeneous activity patterns and different user-user relations, the concept of ‘information cascade’ is all but univocal. Despite the fact that such information cascades can be defined in different ways, it is important to check whether some of the observed patterns are common to diverse contagion processes that take place on modern social media. Here, we explore one type of information cascades, namely, those that are time-constrained, related to two kinds of socially-rooted topics on Twitter. Specifically, we show that in both cases cascades sizes distribute following a fat-tailed distribution and that whether or not a cascade reaches system-wide proportions is mainly given by the presence of so-called hidden influentials. These latter nodes are not the hubs, which on the contrary, often act as firewalls for information spreading. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the dynamics of complex contagion and, from a practical side, for the identification of efficient spreaders in viral phenomena.