Javier de Andrés

Bankruptcy forecasting: A hybrid approach using Fuzzy c-means clustering and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS)

During the last years, hybrid models have proven to be a promising approach for the design of classification systems for the forecasting of bankruptcy. In the present research we propose a hybrid system which combines fuzzy clustering and MARS. Both models are especially suitable for the bankruptcy prediction problem, due to their theoretical advantages when the information used for the forecasting is drawn from company financial statements. We test the accuracy of our approach in a real setting consisting of a database made up of 59,336 non-bankrupt Spanish companies and 138 distressed firms which went bankrupt during 2007. As benchmarking techniques we used discriminant analysis, MARS and a feed-forward neural network. Our results show that the hybrid model outperforms the other systems, both in terms of the percentage of correct classifications and in terms of the profit generated by the lending decisions.

Decision Aiding Forecasting business profitability by using classification techniques: A comparative analysis based on a Spanish case

A comparative study of the performance of a number of classificatory devices, both parametric (LDA and Logit) and non-parametric (perceptron neural nets and fuzzy-rule-based classifiers) is conducted, and a Monte Carlo simulation-based approach is used in order to measure the average effects of sample size variations on the predictive performance of each classifier. The paper uses as a benchmark the problem of forecasting the level of profitability of Spanish commercial and industrial companies upon the basis of a set of financial ratios. This case illustrates well a distinctive feature of many financial prediction problems, namely that of being characterized by a high dimension feature space as well as a low degree of separability. Response surfaces are estimated in order to summarize the results. A higher performance of model-free classifiers is generally observed, even for fairly moderate sample sizes. � 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust neural modeling for the cross-sectional analysis of accounting information

Abstract The performance of robust artificial neural network models in learning bivariate relationships between accounting magnitudes is assessed in this paper. Predictive performances of a number of modeling paradigms (namely, linear models, log-linear structures, classical ratios and artificial neural networks) are compared with regard to the problem of modeling a number of the most outstanding accounting ratio relations. We conduct a large scale analysis, carried out on a representative Spanish data base. Several model fitting criteria are used for each model class (namely, least squares, weighted least squares, least absolute deviations (LAD), and weighted LAD regressions). Hence, besides the standard (least squares-based) version of each model we test a robust (LAD) counterpart, in principle more adequate for distributions strongly affected by outliers, as typically appear in accounting ratio modeling. Our results strongly suggest that classical ratio models, although much used in practical applications, appear to be largely inadequate for predictive purposes, with linear models (both in their least squares and LAD variants) providing much more adequate specifications. In a number of cases, the linear specification is improved by considering flexible non-linear structures. Neural networks, because of their model-free regression capabilities, let us capture generic non-linearities of unknown form in the modeled relations, as well as providing—when properly trained—robust tools for modeling and prediction of general relationships.

Factors influencing web accessibility of big listed firms: an international study

– This paper aims to identify the factors influencing the implementation of web accessibility., – Following the theoretical framework three hypotheses were developed. The database consisted of 108 non‐financial firms listed in the Dow Jones Industrial, CAC‐40, DAX and IBEX35 indexes. A multivariate regression equation was used to test the hypotheses., – Reasons for the implementation of web accessibility are technical rather than social or financial. The implementation of web accessibility is aimed at increasing the efficiency of the operations of the firm. Furthermore, web accessibility policies are more important in countries where the incorporation of the firms into the net has taken place at a date some time after the beginning of the scheme., – An implication of the results is the advisability of orienting governmental policies to raise awareness that web accessibility should be part of corporate social responsibility activities., – This is a pioneering empirical study of the factors influencing web accessibility. The results of the present research are of interest to other countries.

Bankruptcy prediction models based on multinorm analysis: An alternative to accounting ratios

In this paper we address the bankruptcy prediction problem and outline a procedure to improve the performance of standard classifiers. Our proposal replaces traditional indicators (accounting ratios) with the output of a so-called multinorm analysis. The deviations of each firm from a battery of industry norms (computed by nonparametric quantile regression) are used as input variables for the classifiers. The approach is applied to predict bankruptcy of firms, and tested on a representative data set of Spanish firms. Results indicate that the approach may provide significant improvements in predictive accuracy, both in linear and nonlinear classifiers.

Economic and financial factors for the adoption and visibility effects of Web accessibility: The case of European banks

An ink jet printing apparatus responsive to an input digital image for producing a halftone image on a receiver, such as a lithographic plate, having halftone dots with each halftone dot being formed by one or more microdots in a screen dot of selectable areas, including an adjustable printhead for delivering different volumes of ink droplets which, when they contact the receiver, forming microdots of different areas according to the selected screen dot size. The apparatus delivers ink to the printhead and is responsive to a selected screen dot size and the digital image to control the printhead to form ink droplets of different volumes to produce a halftone image on the receiver.This article is focused on the changes needed in design to create positive solutions for all involved in design processes. It draws upon the rich discussion and discourse from a conference focused on positive design involving managers, designers, and IT specialists, all focused on overcoming the problem-based focus and decision paradigms to enhance all phases of the design processes to develop sustainable solutions for real issues in a changing world. Therefore, all fields using design, consciously or not, including management, Information Communication Technology (ICT), and designers as well, need to redesign their processes and first rethink their design paradigms on a meta level.

Determinants of the Web accessibility of European banks

This paper aims at identifying the factors influencing the implementation of Web accessibility (WA) by European banks. We studied a database made up of 49 European banks whose shares are included in the Dow Jones EURO STOXX(R) TMI Banks [8300] Index. Regarding the factors for the implementation, we considered three feasible reasons. Firstly, WA adoption can be motivated by operational factors, as WA can aid in increasing operational efficiency. Secondly, we expect large banks to have higher WA levels, as small firms face competitive disadvantages with regard to technology adoption. Lastly, WA can also be understood as a part of the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) strategy, so, the more committed a bank is to CSR, the more prone it will be to implement WA. Our results indicate that neither the operational factors nor the firm size seem to have exerted a significant influence on WA adoption. Regarding CSR commitment, results indicate a significant influence on WA adoption. However, the effect of the influence is contrary to that hypothesized, since more CSR-committed banks have less accessible Web sites. A possible reason for this result is that banks not included in the CSR indexes try to overcome this drawback by engaging in alternative CSR activities such as WA.

Flexible quantile-based modeling of bivariate financial relationships: The case of ROA ratio

Ratios used in financial analysis suffer from several drawbacks, and the tools - ranging from linear least-squares regressions to neural networks - suggested as alternatives also have serious disadvantages. We propose an alternative approach, based on quantile regression techniques, which exploits financial information in a more efficient way, not achievable by conventional tools. Our proposal is applied to the ROA (return on assets) ratio, this being one of the most popular ratios among both economic analysts and researchers. An empirical analysis is carried out on real data. Results indicate that the quantile approach provides a more accurate assessment of the financial position of the firm.

Does Web accessibility differ among banks

Web Accessibility (WA) is an attribute that must be taken increasingly into account in the design of websites. In this paper we assess on whether the drivers of more accessible online information differ among banks using a structural equation modelling approach. It is concluded that Web Accessibility (WA) implementation is an important and affordable way that could be used to increase the possibilities to explore online information and to meet the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) demands of stakeholders. Our results show that smaller banks are more prone to WA implementation, which may help them to differentiate from its competitors and create strategic advantages.

Towards an automatic user profiling system for online information sites: Identifying demographic determining factors

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify demographic differences based on how users interact with web applications. The research is needed to develop future systems able to adapt the representation of online information to the user’s specific needs and preferences improving its usability. The following question guides this quest: is there a direct relationship between age and/or gender and interaction? Design/methodology/approach – GOMS (goals, operators, methods, and selection rules) analysis was used to reduce complex interaction tasks into basic operators like pointing, dragging, typing, etc. An experiment was designed to analyse the user performance in the use of these operators through five complex tasks: point-and-click, drag-and-drop, text selection, text edition and menu selection. The sample comprises 592 individuals which took part in the experiment. The performance was analysed using multivariate regression analysis. User laterality and the the user experience were used as control var...