Javier Zavala-Garay

Interannual variability of the surface summertime eastward jet in the South China Sea

The summertime eastward jet (SEJ) located around 12°N, 110°E–113°E, as the offshore extension of the Vietnam coastal current, is an important feature of the South China Sea (SCS) surface circulation in boreal summer. Analysis of satellite-derived sea level and sea surface wind data during 1992–2012 reveals pronounced interannual variations in its surface strength (SSEJ) and latitudinal position (YSEJ). In most of these years, the JAS (July, August, and September)-mean SSEJ fluctuates between 0.17 and 0.55 m s−1, while YSEJ shifts between 10.7°N and 14.3°N. These variations of the SEJ are predominantly contributed from the geostrophic current component that is linked to a meridional dipole pattern of sea level variations. This sea level dipole pattern is primarily induced by local wind changes within the SCS associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Enhanced (weakened) southwest monsoon at the developing (decaying) stage of an El Nino event causes a stronger (weaker) SEJ located south (north) of its mean position. Remote wind forcing from the tropical Pacific can also affect the sea level in the SCS via energy transmission through the Philippine archipelago, but its effect on the SEJ is small. The impact of the oceanic internal variability, such as eddy-current interaction, is assessed using an ocean general circulation model (OGCM). Such impact can lead to considerable year-to-year changes of sea level and the SEJ, equivalent to ∼20% of the observed variation. This implies the complexity and prediction difficulty of the upper ocean circulation in this region.

Role of stochastic forcing in ENSO in observations and a coupled GCM

A procedure is presented to estimate the role of atmospheric stochastic forcing (SF) in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) simulated by a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM), in direct comparison to observations represented by a global reanalysis product. SF is extracted from the CGCM and reanalysis as surface wind anomalies linearly independent of the sea-surface temperature anomalies. Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is isolated from SF to quantify its role in ENSO. A coupled ocean–atmosphere model of intermediate complexity is forced with SF, as well as its MJO and non-MJO components, from the reanalysis and CGCM. The role of SF is estimated by comparing the original ENSO in observations and the CGCM with that reproduced by the intermediate model. ENSO statistics in both reanalysis and CGCM are better reproduced when the intermediate model is tuned to be weakly stable than unstable. The intermediate model driven by SF from the reanalysis reproduces most characteristics of observed ENSO, such as its spectrum, seasonal phase-locking, fast decorrelation of ENSO SST during boreal spring, and its lag-correlation with SF. In contrast, not all characteristics of ENSO in the CGCM are reproduced by the intermediate model when SF from the CGCM is used. The seasonal phase-locking of ENSO in the CGCM is not reproduced at all. ENSO, therefore, appears to be driven by SF to a lesser degree in the CGCM than in observations. Characteristics of observed ENSO reproduced by the intermediate model (driven by SF) can be largely attributed to the MJO; which, for instance, is responsible for the fast decorrelation of ENSO SST during boreal spring in both reanalysis and CGCM. The non-MJO component seems to be more responsible than the MJO for erroneous features of ENSO in the CGCM.

Four-Dimensional Variational Assimilation of Satellite Temperature and Sea Level Data in the Coastal Ocean and Adjacent Deep Sea

Incremental, Strong constraint, 4-dimensional variational data assimilation is used to initialize operational forecast models of mesoscale ocean circulation in continental shelf and associated boundary current regimes. In the East Australia Current and the Mid-Atlantic Bight, data assimilation in the deep ocean adjacent to the shelf imposes the influence of remote-ocean forcing on coastal dynamics. Observations assimilated are satellite surface temperature (SST), satellite altimeter sea level anomalies (SLA), and subsurface temperature and salinity from ships, autonomous underwater vehicles and/or profiling floats. The models use boundary data from operational basin-scale circulation models and weather forecast meteorological forcing. Control variables of the data assimilation are the initial conditions of each assimilation window, and the model trajectory through each interval is deemed the best-estimate analysis for initializing the subsequent forecast. We evaluate model skill from a large set of multi-day forecasts starting from different initial mesoscale states. Forecast skill is enhanced, and uncertainty reduced, when empirical statistical subsurface pseudo-observations and/or so-called balance constraints are used to augment surface satellite data.

On the dynamics of the Zanzibar Channel

The Zanzibar Channel lies between the mainland of Tanzania and Zanzibar Island in the tropical western Indian Ocean, is about 100 km long, 40 km wide, and 40 m deep, and is essential to local socioeconomic activities. This paper presents a model of the seasonal and tidal dynamics of the Zanzibar Channel based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and a comparison of the model and observations. The seasonal dynamics of the channel is forced by remote processes and the local wind. Remote forcing creates the East African Coastal Current, a portion of which flows through the channel northward with a seasonally varying magnitude. The local wind enhances this seasonality in the surface Ekman layer, resulting in a stronger northward flow during the southwest monsoon season and a weak northward or occasionally southward flow during the northeast monsoon season. The tidal flows converge and diverge in the center of the channel and reduce the transport in the channel. The remotely forced, wind-forced, and tidal dynamics contain 5%, 3%, and 92% of the total kinetic energy, respectively. Despite their low kinetic energy, the remotely forced and wind-forced flows are most relevant in advecting channel water to the open ocean, which occurs in 19 days at the peak of the southwest monsoon season. The channel is well mixed, except during brief periods in the two rainy seasons, and temporarily cools between December and February. The dispersion of passive tracers is presented as an example of potential model applications.