Jay D. Miller

Predicting survival using simple clinical variables: a case study in traumatic brain injury

OBJECTIVES Prediction of patient outcome can be useful as an aid to clinical decision making, to explore possible biological mechanisms, and as part of the clinical audit process. Many studies have constructed predictive models for survival after traumatic brain injury, but these have often used expensive, time consuming, or highly specialised measurements. The aim of this study was to develop a simple easy to use model involving only variables which are rapidly and easily clinically achievable in routine practice. METHODS All consecutive patients admitted to a regional trauma centre with moderate or severe head injury were enrolled in the study. Basic demographic, injury, and CT characteristics were recorded. Patient survival at 1 year was used to construct a simple predictive model which was then validated on a very similar patient group. RESULTS 372 patients were included in the study, of whom 365 (98%) were followed up for survival at 1 year. Multiple logistic regression resulted in a model containing age (p<0.001), Glasgow coma scale score (p<0.001), injury severity score (p<0.001), pupil reactivity (p=0.004), and presence of haematoma on CT (p=0.004) as independently significant predictors of survival. The model was validated on an independent set of 520 patients, showing good discrimination and adequate calibration, but with a tendency to be pessimistic about very severely injured patients. It is presented as an easy to use nomogram. CONCLUSIONS All five variables have previously been shown to be related to survival. All variables in the model are clinically simple and easy to measure rapidly in a centre with access to 24 hour CT, resulting in a model that is both well validated and clinically useful.

Adding insult to injury: the prognostic value of early secondary insults for survival after traumatic brain injury

OBJECTIVES To assess the prognostic value of summary measures of secondary physiological insult in addition to baseline clinical variables for patients with traumatic brain injury. METHODS A series of 110 patients with traumatic brain injury had data on intracranial pressure (ICP), arterial blood pressure (ABP), cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP), arterial O2 saturation (SaO2), temperature in °C (Temp), and heart rate in beats/min (HRT) monitored and recorded every minute. Secondary insults were defined according to the Edinburgh University secondary insult grading system. The prognostic value of summary measures of these secondary insults was assessed by adding them to a prognostic model for survival at 1 year after controlling for baseline clinical variables using a previously validated model. RESULTS Of the eight secondary insults measured, only ICP added significantly to the prediction of survival in the first 72 hours after injury. The particular type of summary measure did not seem to influence the results. After the addition of ICP to the model, none of the other secondary insult measures could improve the predictive power of the model significantly. CONCLUSIONS Early intracranial hypertension is confirmed as a sign of poor prognosis in patients with traumatic brain injury, even after controlling for baseline clinical variables. The value or otherwise of treating such secondary insults, however, can only be definitively established in the context of prospective randomised controlled trials. The specific pathophysiological evolution of secondary insults is still the subject of much research, and a clear understanding will be necessary before the development of specific treatments is feasible.

Management and long-term outcome following subarachnoid haemorrhage and intracranial aneurysm surgery in elderly patients: an audit of 199 consecutive cases

To address the question of managing subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) in the older patient, the management and outcome of 199 consecutive patients aged > or = 60 years with a confirmed diagnosis of subarachnoid haemorrhage (n = 186) or an unruptured intracranial aneurysm (n = 13) were reviewed. In seven patients, the cause of the SAH was an arterio-venous malformation and these were excluded from further analysis. Angiography was performed in 141 patients with a complication rate of 2.1%. Angiography was not performed in 51 patients and, in this cohort, the in-patient mortality rate was 68.6% and only 27.5% had a favourable outcome at discharge. Operation was not performed in 21 patients with demonstrated aneurysms for a variety of reasons. In this group, the in-patient mortality rate was 47.6% and 38.1% had a favourable outcome at discharge. Eighty-one patients in good neurological grade underwent surgery for a ruptured aneurysm and six patients underwent surgery for a symptomatic unruptured aneurysm. The surgical mortality was 1.1% and a favourable outcome at discharge was achieved in 83.9% of patients. Thirty-three patients were angiographic negative and there was a favourable outcome in 97% of this group. The management mortality in these selected patients admitted to the Department of Clinical Neurosciences was 24.4% and a favourable outcome was recorded in 66.2% of patients. Long-term follow-up (median 40 months, range 3-120 months) was obtained in 97% of discharged patients. The probability of survival at 60 months for patients in good condition at discharge was 0.826 (95% confidence interval 0.722-0.894).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Acute subdural haematoma secondary to ruptured intracranial aneurysm: diagnosis and management.

Acute subdural haematoma secondary to a ruptured intracranial aneurysm may lead to coma or sudden death. We describe five cases encountered in our department over the last 3 years emphasizing the differential diagnosis and approaches to management.

Glasgow Head Injury Outcome Prediction Program: an independent assessment

Using an independent data set, the utility of the Glasgow Head Injury Outcome Prediction Program was investigated in terms of possible frequency of use and reliability of outcome prediction in patients with severe head injury, or haematoma requiring evacuation, or coma lasting 6 hours or more, in whom outcome had been reliably assessed at 6 to 24 months after injury. Predictions were calculated on admission, before evacuation of a haematoma, or 24 hours, 3 days, and 7 days after onset of coma lasting 6 hours or more. Three hundred and twenty four patients provided 426 predictions which were possible in 76%, 97%, 19%, 34%, and 53% of patients on admission, before operation, 24 hours, 3 days, and 7 days respectively. Major reasons for non-feasible predictions were that patients were paralysed/ventilated as part of resuscitation or management. Overall, 75.8% of predictions were correct, 14.6% were pessimistic (outcome better than predicted), and 9.6% optimistic (outcome worse than predicted). Of 197 patients (267 predictions) whose eventual outcome was good or moderate, 84.3% of predictions were correct. For death or vegetative survival (96 patients with 110 predictions), 83.6% of predictions were correct but for severe disability (31 patients with 49 predictions), only 12.2% were correctly predicted. The utility of the Glasgow Head Injury Outcome Prediction Program compares favourably with other outcome prediction algorithms for patients with head injury.

The functional effects of head injury in the elderly

The nature of head injury in the elderly differs from that in younger adults. Fifty-four consecutive patients, aged 65 years or older admitted to a neurotrauma unit with head injury over a six-month period, were identified to determine the causes and medical and social consequences. Falls accounted for the great majority of cases, and alcohol consumption was an important contributory factor in males, while pedestrian road accidents were responsible for most deaths. A routine investigative screening procedure was evaluated. When visited after discharge, 72% of survivors had experienced a change in functional status with increased family involvement and use of community support services. This group was significantly older (p less than 0.01) than those whose status had not changed. A third of the survivors had changed their living circumstances at review. It is suggested that such patients could benefit from increased involvement of the geriatric services.

The role of bradykinin in the etiology of vasogenic brain edema and perilesional brain dysfunction

SummaryThe feline infusion model of brain edema was used to evaluate the role of bradykinin in the etiology and pathophysiology of vasogenic brain edema. Bradykinin (3 or 90 ug in 600 μL saline) did not alter normocapnic regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) nor induce specific changes in either the somatosensory (SEP) or motor (MEP) evoked potentials. The mean increases in ICP (from 4.5 to 16.1 mmHg) and peri-infusion white matter water content (from 69.4 to 79.8 ml/100 g tissue), mean decrease in lumped craniospinal compliance (from 0.040 to 0.014 ml/mmHg) and local histological changes were all similar to those after 600 μL saline infusion. The interstitial bradykinin infusion caused focal blood-brain-barrier (BBB) opening to Evans Blue dye and was chemotaxic for granulocytes. After the infusion there was a global loss of rCBF CO2 reactivity but there was no ischemia at normocapnia. These results show that bradykinin in brain edema fluid, at concentrations greater than those found in neuropathological conditions, can open the BBB of normal cerebral parenchymal capillaries and cause vascular dysregulation. In neuropathological conditions bradykinin may therefore potentiate formation of vasogenic brain edema but does not contribute to perilesional brain dysfunction.

Hypothermia and severe head injury

Two patients who were deeply unconscious (GCS = 4) following head injuries, sustained whilst intoxicated with alcohol, became hypothermic due to cold exposure. Despite negative prognostic factors both underwent craniotomy and evacuation of large acute subdural haematoma. After intensive postoperative management and rehabilitation both have made satisfactory recoveries. The contribution of hypothermia to their unpredicted favourable outcome is discussed, and the importance of recording temperature in head-injured patients is emphasized.

Interstitial white matter brain oedema does not alter the electroencephalogram

An experimental study was performed to determine the effects of interstitial white mater oedema on the electroencephalogram (EEG). Using both rodent and feline infusion models of focal brain oedema no difference was found between the EEG waveforms recorded epidurally from the infused and control hemispheres. It is concluded that where focal slow-wave EEG abnormalities overlie oedematous brain the EEG abnormalities are not primarily related to the brain oedema but arise from either local biomechanical or other pathophysiological mechanisms.