Jean Mangan

Threshold concepts and the integration of understanding in economics

This article outlines the recently developed idea of ‘Threshold Concepts’ and explains how this idea may be used to describe the progress of learning in economics. The authors examine the relationship between threshold concepts, key concepts and conceptual change and suggest that a distinction between basic, discipline and procedural concepts may be useful in determining a framework for the identification of threshold concepts. The current understanding of threshold concepts is extended by indicating that these might best be seen as a web of concepts which link thinking and practice in a discipline. A range of evidence is presented to illustrate the existence and implications of threshold concepts in economics.

Family expenditure on hotels and holidays

Abstract This study uses the United Kingdom Family Expenditure Survey data to investigate the effect of incomes on hotel and holiday expenditures. The results confirm the general understanding in tourism studies that such expenditure is income elastic. Additionally, the study suggests that the elasticity varies considerably between income groups, with very high income elasticities for low income groups and lower, but still elastic, responsiveness by high income groups. This suggests that spending on hotels and holidays is a long way from saturation point, and people with low incomes may increase their consumption considerably as income levels rise. However, firm estimation of the relationships requires a more detailed investigation.

Fair access, achievement and geography: explaining the association between social class and students’ choice of university

This quantitative study is concerned with what determines prospective university students’ first choice between universities of different status. The results suggest that examination performance, going to an independent school and fear of debt independently affect students’ decisions. Social factors and students’ perceived level of information on universities had no independent effect at this stage of decision‐making. There were considerable differences between two geographic areas considered in the study, with a large decrease in the probability of attending a high‐status institution in the locality with no such local institution. This particularly affects high‐achieving students, with an estimate suggesting an increased probability of 18% of going to a high‐ranking institution where such an institution is local for such students. If these findings apply similarly to other areas, the results suggest a ‘postcode lottery’ in higher education.

The modelling of housing submarkets

This paper is concerned as to whether it is more appropriate to use aggregate or disaggregate models in forecasting house prices using hedonic modelling. It is accepted that the implicit pricing of some of the attributes is not stable between locations, property types and ages but it is argued that this can be effectively modelled with an aggregate method. The models are developed using a dataset of nearly 18,000 transactions in the UK Midlands region in 1994. The comparative performance of these models is then considered using two approaches. Chow tests of the error differences between actual price and the price predicted by the models suggest that the submarket models lead to statistically significant, though small, improvements. A second approach, using comparison of the root mean square errors, is conducted on the models’ forecasts for a 10 per cent sample of nearly 2,000 transactions excluded from the modelling process. This shows little practical difference in the forecasting ability between the two approaches. Great care needs to be taken over sample size if a disaggregate model is used.

The Diversity and Dynamics of Competition: evidence from two local schooling markets

The policy of encouraging schools to compete has been justified on the basis of raising measured levels of attainment and widening choice. In this paper we review the basis for this policy, utilising the economic analysis of markets with a small number of providers. We note that in such markets, typical of local schooling markets, increased competition may generate diverse market behaviour and identify factors likely to produce rivalry and co-operation. We then present evidence of two apparently similar local schooling markets that exhibit very different levels and types of competition. We show how an assessment of the intensity of competition in a local schooling market depends on the particular indicators chosen. We review alternative interpretations for these differences in the nature of competition and relate to recent policy initiatives.

Comparing hedonic models for estimating and forecasting house prices

In published work on hedonic house price estimation it is not uncommon to examine some of the conditions required for the estimators to have desirable properties such as minimum variance and unbiasedness, in particular spatial autocorrelation. However, other conditions that can give rise to similar difficulties with the estimates are often ignored. If these technical conditions are not met, it is sometimes because the model is misspecified in some way. This paper argues that a wider range of diagnostic statistics should be used in the specification search for a good model, in particular, but not exclusively, those concerned with predictive stability. The paper illustrates this approach by examining both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample diagnostic tests of various specifications of a hedonic house price model using data taken from the sale of over 1,600 properties in the Midlands of the UK in 1999/2000. The models investigated include various specifications of the dependent and independent variables, including models that are non‐linear in the parameters. The paper concludes that such statistics can often help in model selection and should be more widely employed.

Labour market motivation and undergraduates’ choice of degree subject

Labour market outcomes of undergraduates’ choice of subject matter for public policy and for students. Policy interest is indicated by the prominence of ‘employability’ in public discourse and in proposals to concentrate government funding in England in supporting STEM subjects. As students in England face the prospect of bearing the full financial burden of undergraduate tuition, the large differences between wage premia for different subjects may become of increasing interest. We find that, even after taking account of differences in motivation towards the choice of undergraduate subject, males and members of certain non-White ethnic groups are more likely to choose ‘high wage-premium’ subjects. We also find some significant differences between the motivations of different minority ethnic groups. However, students from lower income households are less likely to choose high wage premium subjects, which is a concern for this aspect of policy towards participation in higher education and social mobility.

‘Hot’, ‘cold’ and ‘warm’ information and higher education decision-making

This paper draws on the notions of ‘hot’ and ‘cold’ knowledge in analysing the responses of students to the relevance of different information and sources of such information in university choice. Analysis of questionnaire and focus group data from prospective and first-year undergraduate students provides evidence that many students put most credence on ‘hot’ knowledge, from persons in their social grapevine. However, this is supplemented by ‘warm’ knowledge from fleeting acquaintances at university open days. University provided knowledge is often distrusted. We discuss the implications of this given the recent government emphasis in England on the role of information provision in helping students to make informed decisions, including the relevance to the ‘fair access’ agenda.

Do Increased Resources Increase Educational Attainment during a Period of Rising Expenditure? Evidence from English Secondary Schools Using a Dynamic Panel Analysis.

This article estimates the effects of school expenditure on school performance at Key Stage 4 in England, over the period 2003–07 during which real per pupil expenditure increased rapidly. It adds to previous investigations by using dynamic panel analysis to: exploit time series data on individual schools that only recently has become available; adjust for the potential endogeneity not only of expenditure but also of other determinants of performance; and differentiate the short‐run and the (higher) long‐run attainment effects of spending changes. Consistent with other recent work, the article reports a generally significant but small effect of expenditure on school performance, but it also finds that the effect varies between specialist and non‐specialist schools, with the effect on the latter being larger. Further, the article identifies significant dynamics in the school improvement process, quantifies the long‐run effect of expenditure changes, suggests that spending effects increase with socio‐econom...

Changes in Examination Performance in English Secondary Schools over the Course of a Decade: Searching for Patterns and Trends over Time.

The article explores changes in the examination performance of a random sample of 500 English secondary schools between 1992 and 2001. Using econometric methods, it concludes that: there is an overall deterministic trend in school performance but it is not stable, making prediction accuracy poor; the aggregate trend does not explain improvement over time at school level, where there is very considerable variation in improvement paths; there is a degree of persistence with respect to changes in performance at school level but it is short-lived; whilst there is evidence of a general upward trend across schools, there is a large amount of year-to-year variation and little evidence of sustained improvement at school level; and the model applied has little ability to forecast the direction of change for particular schools in the following year(s).