Jean-Paul Vernier

The Persistently Variable “Background” Stratospheric Aerosol Layer and Global Climate Change

An increase in the amount of aerosols in the stratosphere during the past decade has decreased the rate of global warming. Recent measurements demonstrate that the “background” stratospheric aerosol layer is persistently variable rather than constant, even in the absence of major volcanic eruptions. Several independent data sets show that stratospheric aerosols have increased in abundance since 2000. Near-global satellite aerosol data imply a negative radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosol changes over this period of about –0.1 watt per square meter, reducing the recent global warming that would otherwise have occurred. Observations from earlier periods are limited but suggest an additional negative radiative forcing of about –0.1 watt per square meter from 1960 to 1990. Climate model projections neglecting these changes would continue to overestimate the radiative forcing and global warming in coming decades if these aerosols remain present at current values or increase.

Total volcanic stratospheric aerosol optical depths and implications for global climate change

Understanding the cooling effect of recent volcanoes is of particular interest in the context of the post-2000 slowing of the rate of global warming. Satellite observations of aerosol optical depth above 15 km have demonstrated that small-magnitude volcanic eruptions substantially perturb incoming solar radiation. Here we use lidar, Aerosol Robotic Network, and balloon-borne observations to provide evidence that currently available satellite databases neglect substantial amounts of volcanic aerosol between the tropopause and 15 km at middle to high latitudes and therefore underestimate total radiative forcing resulting from the recent eruptions. Incorporating these estimates into a simple climate model, we determine the global volcanic aerosol forcing since 2000 to be −0.19 ± 0.09 Wm−2. This translates into an estimated global cooling of 0.05 to 0.12°C. We conclude that recent volcanic events are responsible for more post-2000 cooling than is implied by satellite databases that neglect volcanic aerosol effects below 15 km.

Stratospheric Aerosol--Observations, Processes, and Impact on Climate

Interest in stratospheric aerosol and its role in climate have increased over the last decade due to the observed increase in stratospheric aerosol since 2000 and the potential for changes in the sulfur cycle induced by climate change. This review provides an overview about the advances in stratospheric aerosol research since the last comprehensive assessment of stratospheric aerosol was published in 2006. A crucial development since 2006 is the substantial improvement in the agreement between in situ and space-based inferences of stratospheric aerosol properties during volcanically quiescent periods. Furthermore, new measurement systems and techniques, both in situ and space based, have been developed for measuring physical aerosol properties with greater accuracy and for characterizing aerosol composition. However, these changes induce challenges to constructing a long-term stratospheric aerosol climatology. Currently, changes in stratospheric aerosol levels less than 20% cannot be confidently quantified. The volcanic signals tend to mask any nonvolcanically driven change, making them difficult to understand. While the role of carbonyl sulfide as a substantial and relatively constant source of stratospheric sulfur has been confirmed by new observations and model simulations, large uncertainties remain with respect to the contribution from anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions. New evidence has been provided that stratospheric aerosol can also contain small amounts of nonsulfate matter such as black carbon and organics. Chemistry-climate models have substantially increased in quantity and sophistication. In many models the implementation of stratospheric aerosol processes is coupled to radiation and/or stratospheric chemistry modules to account for relevant feedback processes.

Variations of stratospheric water vapor over the past three decades

We examine variations in water vapor in air entering the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) over the past three decades in satellite data and in a trajectory model. Most of the variance can be explained by three processes that affect the TTL: the quasi-biennial oscillation, the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and the temperature of the tropical troposphere. When these factors act in phase, significant variations in water entering the stratosphere are possible. We also find that volcanic eruptions, which inject aerosol into the TTL, affect the amount of water entering the stratosphere. While there is clear decadal variability in the data and models, we find little evidence for a long-term trend in water entering the stratosphere through the TTL over the past 3 decades.

Increase in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric aerosol levels and its potential connection with Asian pollution

Satellite observations have shown that the Asian Summer Monsoon strongly influences the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) aerosol morphology through its role in the formation of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL). Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II solar occultation and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) lidar observations show that summertime UTLS Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) between 13 and 18 km over Asia has increased by three times since the late 1990s. Here we present the first in situ balloon measurements of aerosol backscatter in the UTLS from Western China, which confirm high aerosol levels observed by CALIPSO since 2006. Aircraft in situ measurements suggest that aerosols at lower altitudes of the ATAL are largely composed of carbonaceous and sulfate materials (carbon/sulfur elemental ratio ranging from 2 to 10). Back trajectory analysis from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization observations indicates that deep convection over the Indian subcontinent supplies the ATAL through the transport of pollution into the UTLS. Time series of deep convection occurrence, carbon monoxide, aerosol, temperature, and relative humidity suggest that secondary aerosol formation and growth in a cold, moist convective environment could play an important role in the formation of ATAL. Finally, radiative calculations show that the ATAL layer has exerted a short-term regional forcing at the top of the atmosphere of −0.1 W/m2 in the past 18 years. Key Points Increase of summertime upper tropospheric aerosol levels over Asia since the 1990s Upper tropospheric enhancement also observed by in situ backscatter measurements Significant regional radiative forcing of −0.1 W/m2

Stratospheric AOD after the 2011 eruption of Nabro volcano measured by lidars over the Northern Hemisphere

Nabro volcano (13.37°N, 41.70°E) in Eritrea erupted on 13 June 2011 generating a layer of sulfate aerosols that persisted in the stratosphere for months. For the first time we report on ground-based lidar observations of the same event from every continent in the Northern Hemisphere, taking advantage of the synergy between global lidar networks such as EARLINET, MPLNET and NDACC with independent lidar groups and satellite CALIPSO to track the evolution of the stratospheric aerosol layer in various parts of the globe. The globally averaged aerosol optical depth (AOD) due to the stratospheric volcanic aerosol layers was of the order of 0.018 ± 0.009 at 532 nm, ranging from 0.003 to 0.04. Compared to the total column AOD from the available collocated AERONET stations, the stratospheric contribution varied from 2% to 23% at 532 nm.

Comment on "Large Volcanic Aerosol Load in the Stratosphere Linked to Asian Monsoon Transport"

Bourassa et al. (Reports, 6 July 2012, p. 78) have suggested that deep convection associated with the Asian monsoon played a critical role in transporting sulfur dioxide associated with the Nabro volcanic eruption (13 June 2011) from the upper troposphere (9 to 14 kilometers) into the lower stratosphere. An analysis of the CALIPSO lidar data indicates, however, that the main part of the Nabro volcanic plume was injected directly into the lower stratosphere during the initial eruption well before reaching the Asian monsoon deep convective region.

Significant radiative impact of volcanic aerosol in the lowermost stratosphere.

Despite their potential to slow global warming, until recently, the radiative forcing associated with volcanic aerosols in the lowermost stratosphere (LMS) had not been considered. Here we study volcanic aerosol changes in the stratosphere using lidar measurements from the NASA CALIPSO satellite and aircraft measurements from the IAGOS-CARIBIC observatory. Between 2008 and 2012 volcanism frequently affected the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere aerosol loadings, whereas the Southern Hemisphere generally had loadings close to background conditions. We show that half of the global stratospheric aerosol optical depth following the Kasatochi, Sarychev and Nabro eruptions is attributable to LMS aerosol. On average, 30% of the global stratospheric aerosol optical depth originated in the LMS during the period 2008–2011. On the basis of the two independent, high-resolution measurement methods, we show that the LMS makes an important contribution to the overall volcanic forcing.

An Advanced System to Monitor the 3D Structure of Diffuse Volcanic Ash Clouds

AbstractMajor disruptions of the aviation system from recent volcanic eruptions have intensified discussions about and increased the international consensus toward improving volcanic ash warnings. Central to making progress is to better discern low volcanic ash loadings and to describe the ash cloud structure more accurately in three-dimensional space and time. Here, dispersed volcanic ash observed by the Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) space-based lidar near 20 000–40 000 ft [~(6–13) km] over Australia and New Zealand during June 2011 is studied. This ash event took place 3 weeks after the Puyehue-Cordon Caulle eruption, which disrupted air traffic in much of the Southern Hemisphere. The volcanic ash layers are shown to exhibit color ratios (1064/532 nm) near 0.5, significantly lower than unity, as is observed with ice. Those optical properties are used to develop an ash detection algorithm. A “trajectory mapping” technique is then demonstrated wherein ash clo...

In situ and space‐based observations of the Kelud volcanic plume: The persistence of ash in the lower stratosphere

Abstract Volcanic eruptions are important causes of natural variability in the climate system at all time scales. Assessments of the climate impact of volcanic eruptions by climate models almost universally assume that sulfate aerosol is the only radiatively active volcanic material. We report satellite observations from the Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) on board the Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite after the eruption of Mount Kelud (Indonesia) on 13 February 2014 of volcanic materials in the lower stratosphere. Using these observations along with in situ measurements with the Compact Optical Backscatter AerosoL Detector (COBALD) backscatter sondes and optical particle counters (OPCs) made during a balloon field campaign in northern Australia, we find that fine ash particles with a radius below 0.3 µm likely represented between 20 and 28% of the total volcanic cloud aerosol optical depth 3 months after the eruption. A separation of 1.5–2 km between the ash and sulfate plumes is observed in the CALIOP extinction profiles as well as in the aerosol number concentration measurements of the OPC after 3 months. The settling velocity of fine ash with a radius of 0.3 µm in the tropical lower stratosphere is reduced by 50% due to the upward motion of the Brewer‐Dobson circulation resulting a doubling of its lifetime. Three months after the eruption, we find a mean tropical clear‐sky radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere from the Kelud plume near −0.08 W/m2 after including the presence of ash; a value ~20% higher than if sulfate alone is considered. Thus, surface cooling following volcanic eruptions could be affected by the persistence of ash and should be considered in climate simulations.