Jean-Philippe Avouac

Kinematic model of active deformation in central Asia

The velocity field of present‐day deformation in Central Asia is modelled using a set of four rotating blocks (Siberia, Tarim, Tibet, India) on a spherical earth. A best‐fit is inverted on the basis of estimated shortening‐rates across the main thrust zones (Himalayas, Tien Shan) and measured slip‐rates along the principal strike‐slip faults (Altyn Tagh and Karakorum) separating those blocks. The fit to the data implies that nearly all the present convergence between India and Asia can be accounted for by slip‐partitioning on these four zones, with as much as 50% absorbed by northeastwards extrusion of Tibet. This suggests that localised deformation governs the present mechanical behaviour of the Central Asian lithosphere.

Active folding of fluvial terraces across the Siwaliks Hills, Himalayas of central Nepal

We analyze geomorphic evidence of recent crustal deformation in the sub-Himalaya of central Nepal, south of the Kathmandu Basin. The Main Frontal Thrust fault (MFT), which marks the southern edge of the sub-Himalayan fold belt, is the only active structure in that area. Active fault bend folding at the MFT is quantified from structural geology and fluvial terraces along the Bagmati and Bakeya Rivers. Two major and two minor strath terraces are recognized and dated to be 9.2, 2.2, and 6.2, 3.7 calibrated (cal) kyr old, respectively. Rock uplift of up to 1.5 cm/yr is derived from river incision, accounting for sedimentation in the Gangetic plain and channel geometry changes. Rock uplift profiles are found to correlate with bedding dip angles, as expected in fault bend folding. It implies that thrusting along the MFT has absorbed 21 ± 1.5 mm/yr of N-S shortening on average over the Holocene period. The ±1.5 mm/yr defines the 68% confidence interval and accounts for uncertainties in age, elevation measurements, initial geometry of the deformed terraces, and seismic cycle. At the longitude of Kathmandu, localized thrusting along the Main Frontal Thrust fault must absorb most of the shortening across the Himalaya. By contrast, microseismicity and geodetic monitoring over the last decade suggest that interseismic strain is accumulating beneath the High Himalaya, 50–100 km north of the active fold zone, where the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) fault roots into a ductile decollement beneath southern Tibet. In the interseismic period the MHT is locked, and elastic deformation accumulates until being released by large (M_w > 8) earthquakes. These earthquakes break the MHT up to the near surface at the front of the Himalayan foothills and result in incremental activation of the MFT.

Fluvial incision and tectonic uplift across the Himalayas of central Nepal

The pattern of fluvial incision across the Himalayas of central Nepal is estimated from the distribution of Holocene and Pleistocene terraces and from the geometry of modern channels along major rivers draining across the range. The terraces provide good constraints on incision rates across the Himalayan frontal folds (Sub-Himalaya or Siwaliks Hills) where rivers are forced to cut down into rising anticlines and have abandoned numerous strath terraces. Farther north and upstream, in the Lesser Himalaya, prominent fill terraces were deposited, probably during the late Pleistocene, and were subsequently incised. The amount of bedrock incision beneath the fill deposits is generally small, suggesting a slow rate of fluvial incision in the Lesser Himalaya. The terrace record is lost in the high range where the rivers are cutting steep gorges. To complement the terrace study, fluvial incision was also estimated from the modern channel geometries using an estimate of the shear stress exerted by the flowing water at the bottom of the channel as a proxy for river incision rate. This approach allows quantification of the effect of variations in channel slope, width, and discharge on the incision rate of a river; the determination of incision rates requires an additional lithological calibration. The two approaches are shown to yield consistent results when applied to the same reach or if incision profiles along nearby parallel reaches are compared. In the Sub-Himalaya, river incision is rapid, with values up to 10–15 mm/yr. It does not exceed a few millimeters per year in the Lesser Himalaya, and rises abruptly at the front of the high range to reach values of ∼4–8 mm/yr within a 50-km-wide zone that coincides with the position of the highest Himalayan peaks. Sediment yield derived from the measurement of suspended load in Himalayan rivers suggests that fluvial incision drives hillslope denudation of the landscape at the scale of the whole range. The observed pattern of erosion is found to closely mimic uplift as predicted by a mechanical model taking into account erosion and slip along the flat-ramp-flat geometry of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault. The morphology of the range reflects a dynamic equilibrium between present-day tectonics and surface processes. The sharp relief together with the high uplift rates in the Higher Himalaya reflects thrusting over the midcrustal ramp rather than the isostatic response to reincision of the Tibetan Plateau driven by late Cenozoic climate change, or late Miocene reactivation of the Main Central Thrust.

Active thrusting and folding along the northern Tien Shan and Late Cenozoic rotation of the Tarim relative to Dzungaria and Kazakhstan

We have studied geometries and rates of late Cenozoic thrust faulting and folding along the northern piedmont of the Tien Shan mountain belt, West of Urumqi, where the M= 8.3 Manas earthquake occurred on December 23, 1906. The northern range of the Tien Shan, rising above 5000 m, overthrusts a flexural foredeep, filled with up to 11,000 m of sediment, of the Dzungarian basement. Our fieldwork reveals that the active thrust reaches the surface 30 km north of the range front, within a 200-km-long zone of Neogene-Quaternary anticlines. Fault scarps are clearest across inset terraces within narrow valleys incised through the anticlines by large rivers flowing down from the range. In all the valleys, the scarps offset vertically the highest terrace surface by the same amount (10.2±0.7 m). Inferring an early Holocene age (10±2 kyr) for this terrace, which is continuous with the largest recent fans of the piedmont, yields a rate of vertical throw of 1.0±0.3mm/yr on the main active thrust at the surface. A quantitative morphological analysis of the degradation of terrace edges that are offset by the thrust corroborates such a rate and yields a mass diffusivity of 5.5±2.5 m^2/kyr. A rather fresh surface scarp, 0.8±0.15 m high, that is unlikely to result from shallow earthquakes with 6 < M < 7 in the last 230 years, is visible at the extremities of the main fold zone. We associate this scarp with the 1906 Manas earthquake and infer that a structure comprising a deep basement ramp under the range, gently dipping flats in the foreland, and shallow ramps responsible for the formation of the active, fault propagation anticlines could have been activated by that earthquake. If so, the return period of a 1906 type event would be 850 ±380 years. The small size of the scarp for an earthquake of this magnitude suggests that a large fraction of the slip at depth (≈2/3) is taken up by incremental folding near the surface. Comparable earthquakes might activate flat detachments and ramp anticlines at a distance from the front of other rising Quaternary ranges such as the San Gabriel mountains in California or the Mont Blanc-Aar massifs in the Alps. We estimate the finite Cenozoic shortening of the folded Dzungarian sediments to be of the order of 30 km and the Cenozoic shortening rate to have been 3 ± 1.5 mm/yr. Assuming comparable shortening along the Tarim piedmont and minor additional active thrusting within the mountain belt, we infer the rate of shortening across the Tien Shan to be at least 6 ± 3 mm/yr at the longitude of Manas (≈85.5°E). A total shortening of 125±30 km is estimated from crustal thickening, assuming local Airy isostatic equilibrium. Under the same assumption, serial N-S sections imply that Cenozoic shortening across the belt increases westwards to 203±50 km at the longitude of Kashgar (≈ 76 °E), as reflected by the westward increase of the width of the belt. This strain gradient implies a clockwise rotation of Tarim relative to Dzungaria and Kazakhstan of 7±2.5° around a pole located near the eastern extremity of the Tien Shan, west of Hami (≈96°E, 43.5°N), comparable to that revealed by paleomagnetism between Tarim and Dzungaria (8.6° ± 8.7°). A 6 mm/yr rate of shortening at the longitude of Manas would imply a rate of rotation of 0.45°/m.y. and would be consistent with a shortening rate of 12 mm/yr north of Kashgar. Taking such values to be representative of Late Cenozoic rates would place the onset of reactivation of the Tien Shan by the India-Asia collision in the early to middle Miocene (16 +22/−9 m.y.), in accord with the existence of particularly thick late Neogene and Quaternary deposits. Such reactivation would thus have started much later than the collision, roughly at the time of the great mid-Miocene changes in tectonic regimes, denudation and sedimentation rates observed in southeast Asia, the Himalayas and the Bay of Bengal, and of the correlative rapid change in seawater Sr isotopic ratio (20 to 15 Ma). Like these other changes, the rise of the Tien Shan might be a distant consequence of the end of Indochinas escape.

Frictional afterslip following the 2005 Nias-Simeulue earthquake, Sumatra

Continuously recording Global Positioning System stations near the 28 March 2005 rupture of the Sunda megathrust [moment magnitude (Mw) 8.7] show that the earthquake triggered aseismic frictional afterslip on the subduction megathrust, with a major fraction of this slip in the up-dip direction from the main rupture. Eleven months after the main shock, afterslip continues at rates several times the average interseismic rate, resulting in deformation equivalent to at least a Mw 8.2 earthquake. In general, along-strike variations in frictional behavior appear to persist over multiple earthquake cycles. Aftershocks cluster along the boundary between the region of coseismic slip and the up-dip creeping zone. We observe that the cumulative number of aftershocks increases linearly with postseismic displacements; this finding suggests that the temporal evolution of aftershocks is governed by afterslip.

Plate-boundary deformation associated with the great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake

The Sumatra–Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004 is the first giant earthquake (moment magnitude Mw > 9.0) to have occurred since the advent of modern space-based geodesy and broadband seismology. It therefore provides an unprecedented opportunity to investigate the characteristics of one of these enormous and rare events. Here we report estimates of the ground displacement associated with this event, using near-field Global Positioning System (GPS) surveys in northwestern Sumatra combined with in situ and remote observations of the vertical motion of coral reefs. These data show that the earthquake was generated by rupture of the Sunda subduction megathrust over a distance of >1,500 kilometres and a width of <150 kilometres. Megathrust slip exceeded 20 metres offshore northern Sumatra, mostly at depths shallower than 30 kilometres. Comparison of the geodetically and seismically inferred slip distribution indicates that ∼30 per cent additional fault slip accrued in the 1.5 months following the 500-second-long seismic rupture. Both seismic and aseismic slip before our re-occupation of GPS sites occurred on the shallow portion of the megathrust, where the large Aceh tsunami originated. Slip tapers off abruptly along strike beneath Simeulue Island at the southeastern edge of the rupture, where the earthquake nucleated and where an Mw = 7.2 earthquake occurred in late 2002. This edge also abuts the northern limit of slip in the 28 March 2005 Mw = 8.7 Nias–Simeulue earthquake.

Tectonics of Western Tibet, between the Tarim and the Indus

A Tarim to Indus traverse provides insight into the tectonics of western Tibet. The Kunlun was the site of a Mid-Paleozoic collision. At least three phases of post-Paleozoic accretion have thickened the blanket of sediments that covers western Tibet. Sizeable parts of western Qiangtang have remained stable, however, since the Mid-Mesozoic. Since the Neogene, deformation and volcanism have been localized near the edges of the Plateau. Strike-slip motion along the Karakorum and Altyn Tagh faults has been coeval with overthrusting in the Himalayas and Kunlun. Such slip partitioning, and the volcanism, appear to result simply from northward subduction of India and southward subduction of the Tarim as Tibet is extruded eastwards by Indias penetration into Asia.

Active thrusting and folding in the Qilian Shan, and decoupling between upper crust and mantle in northeastern Tibet

Fieldwork south of the city of Gaotai (Gansu province, China) shows that active shortening of surface sediments in the foothills of the Yumu Shan, a large fore-mountain of the Qilian Shan, at the northeastern edge of Tibet, involves both overthrusting and flexural-slip folding. North of this mountain, we found and mapped a prominent north-facing thrust scarp that offsets a Holocene fan sloping gently (3.4°) to the north. Part of this scarp appears to be related to the M ≈ 7.5, 180 A.D. earthquake that may have led to the demise of the Han Dynasty city of Luo Tuo Chen, in the Hexi corridor. A set of 10, 100–150 m long profiles measured across this scarp, 3.2 m high on the average, can be made to fit the diffusion-degraded morphology of a surface break related to the 180 A.D. event using a value of about 3.3 m^2/10^3 yr for the mass diffusivity ϰ of fanglomerates in this part of Gansu province. Smaller mountain-facing scarps on a terrace-capped foothill result from bedding slip concurrent with active folding of underlying, steeply northdipping, Plioquaternary sandstone and conglomerate beds. Holocene uplift rates along the Yumu Shan, which is only one of the Qilian Shan ranges, are estimated to be between 0.4 and 1.9 mm/yr, which implies that much of the mountain formed in the Quaternary. The periclinal structure of the Plioquaternary envelope under which the Paleozoic core of the Yumu Shan plunges towards the west suggests that the whole 3200 m high mountain is a basement ramp anticline. Mountains striking parallel to the Yumu Shan, with similar structure and comparable or greater sizes north and south of the Hexi corridor probably also correspond to recent, crustal ramp anticlines. This implies that the wide, mountainous upper crustal wedge making the northeastern edge of the Tibet-Qinghai plateau is detached from the underlying lower crust and upper mantle.

Postseismic relaxation driven by brittle creep: A possible mechanism to reconcile geodetic measurements and the decay rate of aftershocks, application to the Chi‐Chi earthquake, Taiwan

We evaluate the effect of coseismic stress changes on the fault slip at midcrustal depth, assuming a velocity-strengthening brittle creep rheology. We show that this model can help reconcile the time evolution of afterslip, as measured from geodesy, with aftershocks decay. We propose an analytical expression for slip of the brittle creeping fault zone (BCFZ) that applies to any dynamic or static stress perturbation, including shear stress and normal stress changes. The model predicts an initial logarithmic increase of slip with time. Postseismic slip rate decays over a characteristic time t_r = aσ/τ that does not depend on the amplitude of the stress perturbation, and it asymptotically joins the long-term creep imposed by interseismic stress buildup τ. Given that the seismicity rate might be considered proportional to the sliding velocity of the BCFZ, the model predicts a decay rate of aftershocks that follows Omoris law, with a mathematical formalism identical to that of Dieterich [1994] although based on a different mechanical rationale. Our model also differs from Dieterichs model in that it requires that aftershock sequences and deep afterslip, as constrained from geodetic measurements, should follow the same temporal evolution. We test this for the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, M_w = 7.6 and find that both sets of data are consistent with a model of afterslip due to the response of the BCFZ. The inferred relaxation time t_r = 8.5 years requires a value for a = ∂μ/∂log(V) (μ being the coefficient of friction) in the range between 1.3 10^(−3) and 10^(−2).

Convergence rate across the Nepal Himalaya and interseismic coupling on the Main Himalayan Thrust: Implications for seismic hazard

We document geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya using GPS times series from 30 stations in Nepal and southern Tibet, in addition to previously published campaign GPS points and leveling data and determine the pattern of interseismic coupling on the Main Himalayan Thrust fault (MHT). The noise on the daily GPS positions is modeled as a combination of white and colored noise, in order to infer secular velocities at the stations with consistent uncertainties. We then locate the pole of rotation of the Indian plate in the ITRF 2005 reference frame at longitude = − 1.34° ± 3.31°, latitude = 51.4° ± 0.3° with an angular velocity of Ω = 0.5029 ± 0.0072°/Myr. The pattern of coupling on the MHT is computed on a fault dipping 10° to the north and whose strike roughly follows the arcuate shape of the Himalaya. The model indicates that the MHT is locked from the surface to a distance of approximately 100 km down dip, corresponding to a depth of 15 to 20 km. In map view, the transition zone between the locked portion of the MHT and the portion which is creeping at the long term slip rate seems to be at the most a few tens of kilometers wide and coincides with the belt of midcrustal microseismicity underneath the Himalaya. According to a previous study based on thermokinematic modeling of thermochronological and thermobarometric data, this transition seems to happen in a zone where the temperature reaches 350°C. The convergence between India and South Tibet proceeds at a rate of 17.8 ± 0.5 mm/yr in central and eastern Nepal and 20.5 ± 1 mm/yr in western Nepal. The moment deficit due to locking of the MHT in the interseismic period accrues at a rate of 6.6 ± 0.4 × 10^(19) Nm/yr on the MHT underneath Nepal. For comparison, the moment released by the seismicity over the past 500 years, including 14 M_W ≥ 7 earthquakes with moment magnitudes up to 8.5, amounts to only 0.9 × 10^(19) Nm/yr, indicating a large deficit of seismic slip over that period or very infrequent large slow slip events. No large slow slip event has been observed however over the 20 years covered by geodetic measurements in the Nepal Himalaya. We discuss the magnitude and return period of M > 8 earthquakes required to balance the long term slip budget on the MHT.