Jed O. Kaplan

Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the twentieth century: Analyses of CO2, climate and land use effects with four process-based ecosystem models

The concurrent effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate variability, and cropland establishment and abandonment on terrestrial carbon storage between 1920 and 1992 were assessed using a standard simulation protocol with four process-based terrestrial biosphere models. Over the long-term (1920-1992), the simulations yielded a time history of terrestrial uptake that is consistent (within the uncertainty) with a long-term analysis based on ice core and atmospheric CO2 data. Up to 1958, three of four analyses indicated a net release of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere caused by cropland establishment. After 1958, all analyses indicate a net uptake of carbon by terrestrial ecosystems, primarily because of the physiological effects of rapidly rising atmospheric CO2. During the 1980s the simulations indicate that terrestrial ecosystems stored between 0.3 and 1.5 Pg C yr(-1), which is within the uncertainty of analysis based on CO2 and O-2 budgets. Three of the four models indicated tin accordance with O-2 evidence) that the tropics were approximately neutral while a net sink existed in ecosystems north of the tropics. Although all of the models agree that the long-term effect of climate on carbon storage has been small relative to the effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 and land use, the models disagree as to whether climate variability and change in the twentieth century has promoted carbon storage or release. Simulated interannual variability from 1958 generally reproduced the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-scale variability in the atmospheric CO2 increase, but there were substantial differences in the magnitude of interannual variability simulated by the models. The analysis of the ability of the models to simulate the changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 suggested that the observed trend may be a consequence of CO2 effects, climate variability, land use changes, or a combination of these effects. The next steps for improving the process-based simulation of historical terrestrial carbon include (1) the transfer of insight gained from stand-level process studies to improve the sensitivity of simulated carbon storage responses to changes in CO2 and climate, (2) improvements in the data sets used to drive the models so that they incorporate the timing, extent, and types of major disturbances, (3) the enhancement of the models so that they consider major crop types and management schemes, (4) development of data sets that identify the spatial extent of major crop types and management schemes through time, and (5) the consideration of the effects of anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. The evaluation of the performance of the models in the context of a more complete consideration of the factors influencing historical terrestrial carbon dynamics is important for reducing uncertainties in representing the role of terrestrial ecosystems in future projections of the Earth system.

2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility

Variability of central European temperature and precipitation shows correlations with some major historical changes. Climate variations influenced the agricultural productivity, health risk, and conflict level of preindustrial societies. Discrimination between environmental and anthropogenic impacts on past civilizations, however, remains difficult because of the paucity of high-resolution paleoclimatic evidence. We present tree ring–based reconstructions of central European summer precipitation and temperature variability over the past 2500 years. Recent warming is unprecedented, but modern hydroclimatic variations may have at times been exceeded in magnitude and duration. Wet and warm summers occurred during periods of Roman and medieval prosperity. Increased climate variability from ~250 to 600 C.E. coincided with the demise of the western Roman Empire and the turmoil of the Migration Period. Such historical data may provide a basis for counteracting the recent political and fiscal reluctance to mitigate projected climate change.

The application and interpretation of Keeling plots in terrestrial carbon cycle research

[1] Photosynthesis and respiration impart distinct isotopic signatures to the atmosphere that are used to constrain global carbon source/sink estimates and partition ecosystem fluxes. Increasingly, the ‘‘Keeling plot’’ method is being used to determine the carbon isotope composition of ecosystem respiration (d 13 CR) in order to better understand the processes controlling ecosystem isotope discrimination. In this paper we synthesize emergent patterns in d 13 CR by analyzing 146 Keeling plots constructed at 33 sites across North and South America. In order to interpret results from disparate studies, we discuss the assumptions underlying the Keeling plot method and recommend standardized methods for determining d 13 CR. These include the use of regression calculations that account for error in the x variable, and constraining estimates of d 13 CR to nighttime periods. We then recalculate d 13 CR uniformly for all sites. We found a high degree of temporal and spatial variability in C3 ecosystems, with individual observations ranging from � 19.0 to � 32.6%. Mean C3 ecosystem discrimination was 18.3%. Precipitation was a major driver of both temporal and spatial variability of d 13 CR, suggesting (1) a large influence of recently fixed carbon on ecosystem respiration and (2) a significant effect of previous climatic effects on d 13 CR. These results illustrate the importance of water availability as a key control on atmospheric 13 CO2 and highlight the potential of d 13 CR as a useful tool for integrating environmental effects on dynamic canopy and ecosystem processes. INDEX TERMS: 0315 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Biosphere/atmosphere interactions; 0322 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Constituent sources and sinks; 1615 Global Change: Biogeochemical processes (4805); 1694 Global Change: Instruments and techniques; 3322 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Land/atmosphere interactions; KEYWORDS: carbon cycle, carbon isotopes, ecosystem respiration, carbon dioxide, terrestrial ecosystems

Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections

Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55degreesN, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO2 increase (to >700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.

Used planet: A global history

Human use of land has transformed ecosystem pattern and process across most of the terrestrial biosphere, a global change often described as historically recent and potentially catastrophic for both humanity and the biosphere. Interdisciplinary paleoecological, archaeological, and historical studies challenge this view, indicating that land use has been extensive and sustained for millennia in some regions and that recent trends may represent as much a recovery as an acceleration. Here we synthesize recent scientific evidence and theory on the emergence, history, and future of land use as a process transforming the Earth System and use this to explain why relatively small human populations likely caused widespread and profound ecological changes more than 3,000 y ago, whereas the largest and wealthiest human populations in history are using less arable land per person every decade. Contrasting two spatially explicit global reconstructions of land-use history shows that reconstructions incorporating adaptive changes in land-use systems over time, including land-use intensification, offer a more spatially detailed and plausible assessment of our planets history, with a biosphere and perhaps even climate long ago affected by humans. Although land-use processes are now shifting rapidly from historical patterns in both type and scale, integrative global land-use models that incorporate dynamic adaptations in human–environment relationships help to advance our understanding of both past and future land-use changes, including their sustainability and potential global effects.

Holocene carbon emissions as a result of anthropogenic land cover change

Humans have altered the Earth’s land surface since the Paleolithic mainly by clearing woody vegetation first to improve hunting and gathering opportunities, and later to provide agricultural cropland. In the Holocene, agriculture was established on nearly all continents and led to widespread modification of terrestrial ecosystems. To quantify the role that humans played in the global carbon cycle over the Holocene, we developed a new, annually resolved inventory of anthropogenic land cover change from 8000 years ago to the beginning of large-scale industrialization (ad 1850). This inventory is based on a simple relationship between population and land use observed in several European countries over preindustrial time. Using this data set, and an alternative scenario based on the HYDE 3.1 land use data base, we forced the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model in a series of continuous simulations to evaluate the impacts of humans on terrestrial carbon storage during the preindustrial Holocene. Our model setup allowed us to quantify the importance of land degradation caused by repeated episodes of land use followed by abandonment. By 3 ka BP, cumulative carbon emissions caused by anthropogenic land cover change in our new scenario ranged between 84 and 102 Pg, translating to c. 7 ppm of atmospheric CO2. By ad 1850, emissions were 325–357 Pg in the new scenario, in contrast to 137–189 Pg when driven by HYDE. Regional events that resulted in local emissions or uptake of carbon were often balanced by contrasting patterns in other parts of the world. While we cannot close the carbon budget in the current study, simulated cumulative anthropogenic emissions over the preindustrial Holocene are consistent with the ice core record of atmospheric δ13CO2 and support the hypothesis that anthropogenic activities led to the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at a level that made the world substantially warmer than it otherwise would be.

Satellite chartography of atmospheric methane from SCIAMACHY on board ENVISAT: 2. Evaluation based on inverse model simulations

We extend the analysis of a global CH_4 data set retrieved from SCIAMACHY (Frankenberg et al., 2006) by making a detailed comparison with inverse TM5 model simulations for 2003 that are optimized versus high accuracy CH_4 surface measurements from the NOAA ESRL network. The comparison of column averaged mixing ratios over remote continental and oceanic regions shows that major features of the atmospheric CH_4 distribution are consistent between SCIAMACHY observations and model simulations. However, the analysis suggests that SCIAMACHY CH_4 retrievals may have some bias that depends on latitude and season (up to ∼30 ppb). Large enhancements of column averaged CH_4 mixing ratios (∼50–100 ppb) are observed and modeled over India, Southeast Asia, and the tropical regions of South America, and Africa. We present a detailed comparison of observed spatial patterns and their seasonal evolution with TM5 1° × 1° zoom simulations over these regions. Application of a new wetland inventory leads to a significant improvement in the agreement between SCIAMACHY retrievals and model simulations over the Amazon basin during the first half of the year. Furthermore, we present an initial coupled inversion that simultaneously uses the surface and satellite observations and that allows the inverse system to compensate for the potential systematic bias. The results suggest significantly greater tropical emissions compared to either the a priori estimates or the inversion based on the surface measurements only. Emissions from rice paddies in India and Southeast Asia are relatively well constrained by the SCIAMACHY data and are slightly reduced by the inversion.

Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 1. Vegetation changes north of 55°N between the last glacial maximum, mid-Holocene, and present

A unified scheme to assign pollen samples to vegetation types was used to reconstruct vegetation patterns north of 55°N at the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene (6000 years B.P.). The pollen data set assembled for this purpose represents a comprehensive compilation based on the work of many projects and research groups. Five tundra types (cushion forb tundra, graminoid and forb tundra, prostrate dwarf-shrub tundra, erect dwarf-shrub tundra, and low- and high-shrub tundra) were distinguished and mapped on the basis of modern pollen surface samples. The tundra-forest boundary and the distributions of boreal and temperate forest types today were realistically reconstructed. During the mid-Holocene the tundra-forest boundary was north of its present position in some regions, but the pattern of this shift was strongly asymmetrical around the pole, with the largest northward shift in central Siberia (∼200 km), little change in Beringia, and a southward shift in Keewatin and Labrador (∼200 km). Low- and high-shrub tundra extended farther north than today. At the LGM, forests were absent from high latitudes. Graminoid and forb tundra abutted on temperate steppe in northwestern Eurasia while prostrate dwarf-shrub, erect dwarf-shrub, and graminoid and forb tundra formed a mosaic in Beringia. Graminoid and forb tundra is restricted today and does not form a large continuous biome, but the pollen data show that it was far more extensive at the LGM, while low- and high-shrub tundra were greatly reduced, illustrating the potential for climate change to dramatically alter the relative areas occupied by different vegetation types.

Wetlands at the Last Glacial Maximum: Distribution and methane emissions

The global distribution of potential wetlands and their methane (CH4) emissions at the present-day and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are estimated using a GCM simulation of LGM climate, a vegetation model, and simple algorithms for determining wetland area based on topography and soil moisture, and CH4 emissions based on ecosystem carbon turnover in wet soils. LGM wetland area was 15% larger than present, but CH4 emissions were 24% less. Extensive wetlands were simulated on the exposed continental shelves. The soil CH4 sink was simulated as 14 Tg now but <0.5 Tg at the LGM. CH4 emissions at LGM were limited by substrate availability, in turn due to low atmospheric CO2. The glacial-interglacial change in atmospheric CH4 concentration cannot be completely attributed to changes in the wetland source.

Trace gas exchange in a high-arctic valley 1: Variations in CO2 and CH4 flux between tundra vegetation types.

Ecosystem exchanges of CO2 and CH4 were studied by chamber techniques in five different vegetation types in a high arctic valley at Zackenberg, NE Greenland. The vegetation types were categorized as Cassiope heath, hummocky fen, continuous fen, grass land and Salix arctica snowbed. Integrated daytime fluxes for the different vegetation types of the valley showed that the fen areas and the grassland, were significant sources of CH4 with a mean efflux of 6.3 mg CH4 m(-2) h(-1) and sinks for CO2, with almost -170 mg CO2 m(-2) hr(-1). The heath and snowbed areas had much lower carbon sequestration rates of about -25 mg CO2 m(-2) hr(-1) and were also sinks for CH4. Methane emissions from the valley dominated in the hummocky fens. Computation of area integrated mean daytime flux values across all vegetation types of the entire valley bottom revealed that it was a sink of CO2 in the order of -96+/-33 mg CO2 m-2 hr-1 and a source of 1.9+/-0.7 m(-2) CH4 m(-2) hr(-1). These values were in accordance with eddy correlation measurements reported elsewhere in this issue and reflect a high-carbon exchange despite the high arctic location. In the fens, where the water table was at or above the soil surface, methane emissions increased with net ecosystem CO2 flux. In places with the water table below the soil surface, such as particularly in the hummocky parts of the fen, oxidation tended to become the dominant controlling factor on methane efflux.