Jeff Carmichael

The Future Is Not What It Used To Be: Participatory Integrated Assessment In The Georgia Basin

Integrated assessment (IA) is a rapidly evolving field and in recent years the introduction of participatory methods has resulted in the development of a more diverse set of tools. The Georgia Basin Futures Project is presented and reviewed in the context of this expanding portfolio of IA methodologies. The project is an ambitious attempt to combine qualitative scenario methods with a computer-based gaming tool on a regional scale. The paper suggests that the particular combination of methods and the scale of the analysis represent a viable model for the future regional IAs.

Towards community engagement: six steps to expert learning for future scenario development

Abstract This paper describes a variety of facilitated exercises for use in collaborative workshops where experts are brought together to create archetypes that feed into the design of alternative scenarios for the future of their area of expertise (e.g., forestry, housing, transportation, food systems and waste). In this case, these workshops were designed to aid in the development of a computer-based sustainability tool (GB-Quest) that supports a larger process of community engagement and dialogue focused on sustainability in the southwestern portion of British Columbia, Canada. Value-focused thinking and a narrative-based structure provided the framework for this dialogue and a template for asking hard questions about the assumptions and biases related to the alternatives. Using examples, this paper outlines and details this process and then suggests possible next steps in this ongoing process.

Downscaling and visioning of mountain snow packs and other climate change implications in North Vancouver, British Columbia

This paper provides an overview of a collaborative study on visualizing climate change at the local scale. A conceptual framework has been developed, in which local scenarios and visualizations of climate change impacts and response were created to facilitate local dialogue on incorporating climate change into long-term planning and implementation of community development decisions. As part of a larger effort to generate a new integrated participatory visioning process, this paper describes a case study of the District of North Vancouver which created visualizations of changing mountain snow and landscape conditions, and provides new insights on issues and dilemmas in using realistic landscape visualizations to depict scientific modelling projections, local responses to climate change, and uncertainty. Results from this study suggest that the visualizations, and subsequent dialogue sessions, did influence emotional response to climate change as well as self-assessed understanding of adaptation and mitigation response options. However, there is a need to test this visioning process with larger heterogeneous groups of participants in order to better assess its effectiveness in enabling dialogue on local responses to climate change.

Urban Water Futures: A Multivariate Analysis of Population Growth and Climate Change Impacts on Urban Water Demand in the Okanagan Basin, BC

Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on water availability and demand in many regions. In regions where significant population growth is expected additional pressure on water resources will likely result. This paper describes a scenario-based approach to integrating climate change impacts with other drivers for the purpose of bridging the gap between global climate change and local water management adaptation. Scenarios of future residential water demand account for population growth, climate change, housing type and demand side management, and compare these demands to licensed supply. Three case studies within the Okanagan Basin of British Columbia were chosen in order to assess regions of differing aridity, current water use, and community size: the Town of Oliver, City of Penticton and City of Kelowna water utility. In all cases, water demands are projected to increase, exceeding licensed supplies in high growth scenarios. However, these increases can be offset to a large degree by demand management measures.

WATER RESOURCES PLANNING THROUGH GROUP MODEL BUILDING IN THE OKANAGAN VALLEY, BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA

Research provides evidence that managing water resources in the Okanagan Basin in south-central British Columbia, Canada, will become increasingly challenging in the future. Climate change will likely alter water supply patterns, and warmer temperatures will result in increased agricultural and residential demand. At the same time, rapid population growth will also result in increased residential demand. The combination of these changes increase future risk of water supply falling short of water demand. In the previous phase of this project, management strategies were evaluated qualitatively. To provide decision support, future scenarios must be combined with a more rigorous evaluation of management options. One way to bridge the gap between technical information and policy implementation is through actively engaging the region’s water community in a shared learning process. We are accomplishing this through a group model building process, which facilitates learning through active development of a high-level scoping model. The objectives of the modeling process include: (1) Creating a basin-wide water balance and assessing the impacts of climate change relative to other stresses; (2) Identifying and capturing those aspects that are strongly connected to water resources, such as land use; (3) Evaluating adaptation strategies for sustainable water management; and (4) Creating a tool that can be used for public education. The process includes a series of workshops over a period of one year. Participants, who include water managers, planners, political leaders and a diverse range of related interests, will share and negotiate their mental models using system dynamics as a communication tool. A single model will be constructed in STELLA language and supported with existing data. Issues such as flood control, fish habitat, forest management, agricultural and domestic water use,