Jeffrey A. Coe

Seasonal movement of the Slumgullion landslide determined from global positioning system surveys and field instrumentation, July 1998-March 2002

Abstract Measurements of landslide movement made by global positioning system surveys and extensometers over a 3.5-year period show that the Slumgullion landslide in the San Juan Mountains of southwest Colorado moved throughout the monitoring period, but that daily velocities varied on a seasonal basis. Landslide velocities peaked in the early spring and summer in response to snowmelt and summer thunderstorms, respectively. Velocities were slowest in mid-winter when air and soil temperatures were coldest and precipitation was generally low and/or in the form of snow with a low water content. We hypothesize that the seasonal variability in velocities is due to ground-water levels and corresponding pore pressures that decrease when surface water is unavailable or cannot infiltrate frozen landslide material, and increase when surface water from melting snow or rainfall infiltrates unfrozen landslide material. We also suggest that patches of bouldery debris and fractures (created by continuous movement of the landslide) are conduits through which surface water can infiltrate, regardless of the frozen or unfrozen state of the landslide matrix material. Therefore, the availability of surface water is more important than landslide temperature in controlling the rate of landslide movement. This hypothesis is supported by field instrumentation data that show (1) landslide velocities coinciding with precipitation amounts regardless of the depth of freezing of landslide material, (2) spring and annual landslide velocities that were greatest when the depth of freezing was also the greatest, and (3) a rapid (several weeks or less) velocity and pore pressure response to rainfall. The persistent, but seasonally variable movement of the landslide, fits the bathtub model for landslide movement described by Baum and Reid [Baum, R.L., Reid, M.E., 2000. Ground water isolation by low-permeability clays in landslide shear zones. In: Bromhead, E.N., Dixon, N., Ibsen, M.-L. (Eds.), Landslides in Research, Theory and Practice. Proc. 8th Int. Symp. on Landslides, Cardiff, Wales, vol. 1, 139–144]. In their model, the landslide is isolated both mechanically and hydrologically from adjacent materials by low permeability clays. These clays cause the landslide to retain water. Our data support this model by suggesting that pore pressures at the basal landslide surface are always adequate to maintain landslide movement and that any infiltration of water at the surface of the landslide is adequate to rapidly increase landslide velocity.

Evolution of a natural debris flow: In situ measurements of flow dynamics, video imagery, and terrestrial laser scanning

Many theoretical and laboratory studies have been undertaken to understand debris-flow processes and their associated hazards. However, complete and quantitative data sets from natural debris flows needed for confirmation of these results are limited. We used a novel combination of in situ measurements of debris-flow dynamics, video imagery, and pre- and postflow 2-cm-resolution digital terrain models to study a natural debris-flow event. Our field data constrain the initial and final reach morphology and key flow dynamics. The observed event consisted of multiple surges, each with clear variation of flow properties along the length of the surge. Steep, highly resistant, surge fronts of coarse-grained material without measurable pore-fluid pressure were pushed along by relatively fine-grained and water-rich tails that had a wide range of pore-fluid pressures (some two times greater than hydrostatic). Surges with larger nonequilibrium pore-fluid pressures had longer travel distances. A wide range of travel distances from different surges of similar size indicates that dynamic flow properties are of equal or greater importance than channel properties in determining where a particular surge will stop. Progressive vertical accretion of multiple surges generated the total thickness of mapped debris-flow deposits; nevertheless, deposits had massive, vertically unstratified sedimentological textures.

Probabilistic Assessment of Precipitation-Triggered Landslides Using Historical Records of Landslide Occurrence, Seattle, Washington

Ninety years of historical landslide records were used as input to the Poisson and binomial probability models. Results from these models show that, for precipitation-triggered landslides, approximately 9 percent of the area of Seattle has annual exceedance probabilities of 1 percent or greater. Application of the Poisson model for estimating the future occurrence of individual landslides results in a worst-case scenario map, with a maximum annual exceedance probability of 25 percent on a hillslope near Duwamish Head in West Seattle. Application of the binomial model for estimating the future occurrence of a year with one or more landslides results in a map with a maximum annual exceedance probability of 17 percent (also near Duwamish Head). Slope and geology both play a role in localizing the occurrence of landslides in Seattle. A positive correlation exists between slope and mean exceedance probability, with probability tending to increase as slope increases. Sixty-four percent of all historical landslide locations are within 150 m (500 ft, horizontal distance) of the Esperance Sand/Lawton Clay contact, but within this zone, no positive or negative correlation exists between exceedance probability and distance to the contact.

Volumetric analysis and hydrologic characterization of a modern debris flow near Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Abstract On July 21 or 22, 1984, debris flows triggered by rainfall occurred on the southern hillslope of Jake Ridge, about 6 km east of the crest of Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Rain gages near Jake Ridge recorded 65 mm and 69 mm on July 21, and 20 mm and 17 mm on July 22. Rates of rainfall intensity ranged up to 73 mm/h on the twenty-first, and 15 mm/h on the twenty-second. Digital elevation models with 2.0 m grid-node spacing, measured from pre-storm and post-storm aerial stereo-photographs, were used to map hillslope erosion and the downslope distribution of debris. Volumetric calculations indicate that about 7040 m 3 of debris was redistributed on the 49,132 m 2 hillslope study area during the two-day storm period. About 4580 m 3 (65%) of the eroded sediment was deposited within the study area and the remaining 35% was deposited outside the study area in a short tributary to Fortymile Wash and in the wash itself. The maximum and mean depths of erosion in the study area were about 1.8 m and 5 cm, respectively. The mean depths of erosion on the upper and middle hillslope were 27 cm and 4 cm, respectively. The mean depth of deposition on the lower hillslope was 16 cm. Analysis of the values of cumulative precipitation in the context of the precipitation-frequency atlas of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicates that precipitation from the main storm on July 21 was more than double that expected, on average, once during a 100-year-period. The relations of precipitation intensity/duration, developed from data recorded at a nearby precipitation gage, indicate a storm interval of 500 years or greater. The amount of erosion caused by such a storm is primarily dependent on three variables; storm intensity, development of the drainage network on the hillslope, and the amount of available colluvium. Additionally, the erosive ability of successive storms of equal intensity will decrease because such storms would tend to progressively isolate and reduce the amount of colluvium available. The preservation of Pleistocene deposits on hillslopes of Yucca Mountain, in general, indicates that erosional events that strip 5% of the available hillslope colluvium must be quite rare. We conclude that the recurrence interval of an erosional event comparable to the July, 1984 event is probably much longer than 500 years.

New insights into debris-flow hazards from an extraordinary event in the Colorado Front Range

Rainfall on 9–13 September 2013 triggered at least 1,138 debris flows in a 3430 km area of the Colorado Front Range. The historical record reveals that the occurrence of these flows over such a large area in the interior of North America is highly unusual. Rainfall that triggered the debris flows began after ~75 mm of antecedent rain had fallen, a relatively low amount compared to other parts of the United States. Most flows were triggered in response to two intense rainfall periods, one 12.5-hour-long period on 11–12 September, and one 8-hour-long period on 12 September. The maximum 10 min. intensities during these periods were 67 and 39 mm/hr. Ninety-five percent of flows initiated in canyons and on hogbacks at elevations lower than a widespread erosion surface of low slope and relief ( 25°), predominantly southand east-facing slopes with upslope contributing areas 3300 m. Areal concentrations of debris flows revealed that colluvial soils formed on sedimentary rocks were more susceptible to flows than soils on crystalline rocks. This event should serve as an alert to government authorities, emergency responders, and residents in the Front Range and other interior continental areas with steep slopes. Widespread debris flows in these areas occur infrequently but may pose a greater risk than in areas with shorter return periods, because the public is typically unprepared for them.

Multi-temporal Maps of the Montaguto Earth Flow in Southern Italy from 1954 to 2010

Historical movement of the Montaguto earth flow in southern Italy has periodically destroyed residences and farmland, and damaged the Italian National Road SS90 and the Benevento-Foggia National Railway. This paper provides maps from an investigation into the evolution of the Montaguto earth flow from 1954 to 2010. We used aerial photos, topographic maps, LiDAR data, satellite images, and field observations to produce multi-temporal maps. The maps show the spatial and temporal distribution of back-tilted surfaces, flank ridges, and normal, thrust, and strike-slip faults. Springs, creeks, and ponds are also shown on the maps. The maps provide a basis for interpreting how basal and lateral boundary geometries influence earth-flow behavior and surface-water hydrology.

Rock-avalanche dynamics revealed by large-scale field mapping and seismic signals at a highly mobile avalanche in the West Salt Creek valley, western Colorado

On 25 May 2014, a rain-on-snow–induced rock avalanche occurred in the West Salt Creek valley on the northern flank of Grand Mesa in western Colorado (United States). The avalanche mobilized from a preexisting rock slide in the Green River Formation and traveled 4.6 km down the confined valley, killing three people. The avalanche was rare for the contiguous United States because of its large size (54.5 Mm 3 ) and high mobility (height/length = 0.14). To understand the avalanche failure sequence, mechanisms, and mobility, we conducted a forensic analysis using large-scale (1:1000) structural mapping and seismic data. We used high-resolution, unmanned aircraft system imagery as a base for field mapping, and analyzed seismic data from 22 broadband stations (distances

Regional moisture balance control of landslide motion: Implications for landslide forecasting in a changing climate

I correlated 12 years of annual movement of 18 points on a large, continuously moving, deep-seated landslide with a regional moisture balance index (moisture balance drought index, MBDI). I used MBDI values calculated from a combination of historical precipitation and air temperature data from A.D. 1895 to 2010, and downscaled climate projections using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 emissions scenario for 2011–2099. At the landslide, temperature is projected to increase ~0.5 °C/10 yr between 2011 and 2099, while precipitation decreases at a rate of ~2 mm/10 yr. Landslide movement correlated with the MBDI with integration periods of 12 and 48 months. The correlation between movement and MBDI suggests that the MBDI functions as a proxy for groundwater pore pressures and landslide mobility. I used the correlation to forecast decreasing landslide movement between 2011 and 2099, with the head of the landslide expected to stop moving in the mid-21 st century. The MBDI, or a similar moisture balance index that accounts for evapotranspiration, has considerable potential as a tool for forecasting the magnitude of ongoing deep-seated landslide movement, and for assessing the onset or likelihood of regional, deep-seated landslide activity.

OBSERVATIONS OF DEBRIS FLOWS AT CHALK CLIFFS, COLORADO, USA: PART 2, CHANGES IN SURFACE MORPHOMETRY FROM TERRE- STRIAL LASER SCANNING IN THE SUMMER OF 2009

High resolution topographic data that quantify changes in channel form caused by sequential debris flows in natural channels are rare at the reach scale. Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) techniques are utilized to capture morphological changes brought about by a high-frequency of debris-flow events at Chalk Cliffs, Colorado. The purpose of this paper is to compare and contrast the topographic response of a natural channel to the documented debris-flow events. TLS sur vey data allowed for the generation of high-resolution (2-cm) digital terrain models (DTM) of the channel. A robust network of twelve permanent control points permitted repeat scanning sessions that provided multiple DTM to evaluate fine-scale topographic change associated with three debris-flow events. Difference surfaces from the DTM permit the interpretations of spatial variations in channel morphometry and net volume of material deposited and eroded within and between a series of channel reaches. Each channel reach experienced erosion, deposition, and both net volumetric gains and losses were measured. Analysis of potential relationships between erosion and deposition magnitudes yielded no strong correlations with measures of channel-reach morphometry, suggesting that channel reach-specific predictions of potential erosion or deposition locations or rates cannot be adequately derived from statistical analyses of pre-event channel-reach morphometry.

Observations of debris flows at Chalk Cliffs, Colorado, USA: Part 1, in-situ measurements of flow dynamics, tracer particle movement and video imagery from the summer of 2009

Debris flows initiated by surface-water runoff dur - ing short duration, moderate- to high-intensity rainfall are common in steep, rocky, and sparsely vegetated terrain. Yet large uncertainties remain about the po- tential for a flow to grow through entrainment of loose debris, which make formulation of accurate mechani- cal models of debris-flow routing difficult. Using a combination of in situ measurements of debris-flow dynamics, video imagery, tracer rocks implanted with passive integrated transponders (PIT) and pre- and post-flow 2-cm resolution digital terrain models (ter - rain data presented in a companion paper by staley et alii, 2011), we investigated the entrainment and trans- port response of debris flows at Chalk Cliffs, CO, USA. Four monitored events during the summer of 2009 all initiated from surface-water runoff, generally less than an hour after the first measurable rain. Despite reach- scale morphology that remained relatively constant, the four flow events displayed a range of responses, from long-runout flows that entrained significant amounts of channel sediment and dammed the main-stem river, to smaller, short-runout flows that were primarily depo - sitional in the upper basin. Tracer-rock travel-distance distributions for these events were bimodal; particles either remained immobile or they travelled the entire length of the catchment. The long-runout, large-entrain- ment flow differed from the other smaller flows by the following controlling factors: peak 10-minute rain in- tensity; duration of significant flow in the channel; and