Jeffrey A. Havlena

Causes and Implications of Readmission after Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair

Objective:To determine the frequency, causes, predictors, and consequences of 30-day readmission after abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair. Background Data:Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) will soon reduce total Medicare reimbursements for hospitals with higher-than-predicted 30-day readmission rates after vascular surgical procedures, including AAA repair. However, causes and factors leading to readmission in this population have never before been systematically analyzed. Methods:We analyzed elective AAA repairs over a 2-year period from the CMS Chronic Conditions Warehouse, a 5% national sample of Medicare beneficiaries. Results:A total of 2481 patients underwent AAA repair–-1502 endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) and 979 open aneurysm repair. Thirty-day readmission rates were equivalent for EVAR (13.3%) and open repair (12.8%). Although wound complication was the most common reason for readmission after both procedures, the relative frequency of other causes differed—eg, bowel obstruction was common after open repair, and graft complication after EVAR. In multivariate analyses, preoperative comorbidities had a modest effect on readmission; however, postoperative factors, including serious complications leading to prolonged length of stay and discharge destination other than home, had a profound influence on the probability of readmission. The 1-year mortality in readmitted patients was 23.4% versus 4.5% in those not readmitted (P < 0.001). Conclusions:Early readmission is common after AAA repair. Adjusting for comorbidities, postoperative events predict readmission, suggesting that proactively preventing, detecting, and managing postoperative complications may provide an approach to decreasing readmissions, with the potential to reduce cost and possibly enhance long-term survival.

Predictors of surgical site infection after hospital discharge in patients undergoing major vascular surgery

OBJECTIVE Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common postoperative complications after vascular reconstruction, producing significant morbidity and hospital readmission. In contrast to SSI that develops while patients are still hospitalized, little is known about the cohort of patients who develop SSI after discharge. In this study, we explore the factors that lead to postdischarge SSI, investigate the differences between risk factors for in-hospital vs postdischarge SSI, and develop a scoring system to identify patients who might benefit from postdischarge monitoring of their wounds. METHODS Patients who underwent major vascular surgery from 2005 to 2012 for aneurysm and lower extremity occlusive disease were identified from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Participant Use Files. Patients were categorized as having no SSI, in-hospital SSI, or SSI after hospital discharge. Predictors of postdischarge SSI were determined by multivariable logistic regression and internally validated by bootstrap resampling. Risk scores were assigned to all significant variables in the model. Summative risk scores were collapsed into quartile-based ordinal categories and defined as low, low/moderate, moderate/high, and high risk. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine predictors of in-hospital SSI. RESULTS Of the 49,817 patients who underwent major vascular surgery, 4449 (8.9%) were diagnosed with SSI (2.1% in-hospital SSI; 6.9% postdischarge SSI). By multivariable analysis, factors significantly associated with increased odds of postdischarge SSI include female gender, obesity, diabetes, smoking, hypertension, coronary artery disease, critical limb ischemia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dyspnea, neurologic disease, prolonged operative time >4 hours, American Society of Anesthesiology class 4 or 5, lower extremity revascularization or aortoiliac procedure, and groin anastomosis. The model exhibited moderate discrimination (bias-corrected C statistic, 0.691) and excellent internal calibration. The postdischarge SSI rate was 2.1% for low-risk patients, 5.1% for low/moderate-risk patients, 7.8% for moderate/high-risk patients, and 14% for high-risk patients. In a comparative analysis, comorbidities were the primary driver of postdischarge SSI, whereas in-hospital factors (operative time, emergency case status) and complications predicted in-hospital SSI. CONCLUSIONS The majority of SSIs after major vascular surgery develop following hospital discharge. We have created a scoring system that can select a cohort of patients at high risk for SSI after discharge. These patients can be targeted for transitional care efforts focused on early detection and treatment with the goal of reducing morbidity and preventing readmission secondary to SSI.

Trends in the presentation, treatment, and survival of patients with medullary thyroid cancer over the past 30 years.

Background. The impact of recent medical advances on disease presentation, extent of operation, and disease‐specific survival for patients with medullary thyroid cancer is unclear. Methods. We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry to compare trends over 3 time periods, 1983–1992, 1993–2002, and 2003–2012. Results. There were 2,940 patients diagnosed with medullary thyroid cancer between 1983 and 2012. The incidence of medullary thyroid cancer increased during this time period from 0.14 to 0.21 per 100,000 population, and mean age at diagnosis increased from 49.8 to 53.8 (P < .001). The proportion of tumors ≤1 cm also increased from 11.4% in 1983–1992, 19.6% in 1993–2002, to 25.1% in 2003–2012 (P < .001), but stage at diagnosis remained constant (P = .57). In addition, the proportion of patients undergoing a total thyroidectomy and lymph node dissection increased from 58.2% to 76.5% during the study period (P < .001). In the most recent time interval, 5‐year, disease‐specific survival improved from 86% to 89% in all patients (P < .001) but especially for patients with regional (82% to 91%, P = .003) and distant (40% to 51%, P = .02) disease. Conclusion. These data demonstrate that the extent of operation is increasing for patients with medullary thyroid cancer. Disease‐specific survival is also improving, primarily in patients with regional and distant disease.

Trajectories and Prognosis of Older Patients Who Have Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation After High-Risk Surgery.

Objectives:Surgical patients often receive routine postoperative mechanical ventilation with excellent outcomes. However, older patients who receive prolonged mechanical ventilation may have a significantly different long-term trajectory not fully captured in 30-day postoperative metrics. The objective of this study is to describe patterns of mortality and hospitalization for Medicare beneficiaries 66 years old and older who have major surgery with and without prolonged mechanical ventilation. Design:Retrospective cohort study. Setting:Hospitals throughout the United States. Patients:Five percent random national sample of elderly Medicare beneficiaries (age ≥ 66 yr) who underwent 1 of 227 operations previously defined as high risk during an inpatient stay at an acute care hospital between January 1, 2005, and November 30, 2009. Interventions:None. Measurements and Main Results:We identified 117,917 episodes for older patients who had high-risk surgery; 4% received prolonged mechanical ventilation during the hospitalization. Patients who received prolonged mechanical ventilation had higher 1-year mortality rate than patients who did not have prolonged ventilation (64% [95% CI, 62–65%] vs 17% [95% CI, 16.4–16.9%]). Thirty-day survivors who received prolonged mechanical ventilation had a 1-year mortality rate of 47% (95% CI, 45–48%). Thirty-day survivors who did not receive prolonged ventilation were more likely to be discharged home than patients who received prolonged ventilation 71% versus 10%. Patients who received prolonged ventilation and were not discharged by postoperative day 30 had a substantially increased 1-year mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 4.39 [95% CI, 3.29–5.85]) compared with patients discharged home by day 30. Hospitalized 30-day survivors who received prolonged mechanical ventilation and died within 6 months of their index procedure spent the majority of their remaining days hospitalized. Conclusions:Older patients who require prolonged mechanical ventilation after high-risk surgery and survive 30 days have a significant 1-year risk of mortality and high burdens of treatment. This difficult trajectory should be considered in surgical decision making and has important implications for surgeons, intensivists, and patients.

Quantile regression in environmental health: Early life lead exposure and end-of-grade exams.

Conditional means regression, including ordinary least squares (OLS), provides an incomplete picture of exposure-response relationships particularly if the primary interest resides in the tail ends of the distribution of the outcome. Quantile regression (QR) offers an alternative methodological approach in which the influence of independent covariates on the outcome can be specified at any location along the distribution of the outcome. We implemented QR to examine heterogeneity in the influence of early childhood lead exposure on reading and math standardized fourth grade tests. In children from two urban school districts (n=1,076), lead exposure was associated with an 18.00 point decrease (95% CI: -48.72, -3.32) at the 10th quantile of reading scores, and a 7.50 point decrease (95% CI: -15.58, 2.07) at the 90th quantile. Wald tests indicated significant heterogeneity of the coefficients across the distribution of quantiles. Math scores did not show heterogeneity of coefficients, but there was a significant difference in the lead effect at the 10th (β=-17.00, 95% CI: -32.13, -3.27) versus 90th (β=-4.50, 95% CI: -10.55, 4.50) quantiles. Our results indicate that lead exposure has a greater effect for children in the lower tail of exam scores, a result that is masked by conditional means approaches.

Early lead exposure (<3 years old) prospectively predicts fourth grade school suspension in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (USA).

School suspensions are associated with negative student outcomes. Environmental lead exposure increases hyperactivity and sensory defensiveness, two traits likely to increase classroom misbehavior and subsequent discipline. Childhood Blood Lead Level (BLL) test results categorized urban fourth graders as exposed (2687; lifetime max BLL 10-20 µg/dL) or unexposed (1076; no lifetime BLL ≥5 µg/dL). Exposed children were over twice as likely as unexposed children to be suspended (OR=2.66, 95% CI=[2.12, 3.32]), controlling for covariates. African American children were more likely to be suspended than white children, but lead exposure explained 23% of the racial discipline gap. These results suggest that different rates of environmental lead exposure may contribute to the racial discipline gap.

Moderate lead exposure and elementary school end-of-grade examination performance

PURPOSE This study investigated the association between moderate lead poisoning in early childhood with performance on a comprehensive set of end-of-grade examinations at the elementary school level in two urban school districts. METHODS Children born between 1996 and 2000 who resided in Milwaukee or Racine, WI, with a record of a blood lead test before the age of 3 years were considered for the analysis. Children were defined as exposed (blood lead level ≥10 and <20 μg/dL) or not exposed (BLL < 5 μg/dL). Parents of eligible children were mailed surveys to consent to participation and elicit information on potential confounders. On consent, children were matched to educational records for fourth grade Wisconsin Knowledge and Concepts Examinations. Seemingly unrelated regression was used to evaluate the relation between scaled scores on all sections of the examination (math, reading, language arts, science, and social studies) with exposure status, controlling for demographics, social status indicators, health indicators, and district-based poverty indicators. RESULTS A total of 1133 families responded to the survey and consented to have educational records released; 43% of children were considered exposed. After controlling for demographic and socioeconomic covariates, lead exposure was associated with significantly lower scores in all sections of the Wisconsin Knowledge and Concepts Examinations (range: science, β = -5.21, P = .01; reading, β = -8.91, P = .003). Children who were black, had a parent with less than a high-school education, and were classified by parents as having less than excellent health had significantly lower performance on all examination components. CONCLUSIONS Children with moderate lead poisoning in early childhood performed significantly lower on all components of elementary school end-of-grade examinations compared with unexposed children. Household level social status and childhood health indicators partially explain decreased examination scores.

Endovascular Versus Open Revascularization for Peripheral Arterial Disease.

Objective: The aim of this study was to determine whether endovascular or open revascularization provides an advantageous approach to symptomatic peripheral arterial disease (PAD) over the longer term. Summary of Background Data: The optimal revascularization strategy for symptomatic lower extremity PAD is not established. Methods: We evaluated amputation-free survival, overall survival, and relative rate of subsequent vascular intervention after endovascular or open lower extremity revascularization for propensity-score matched cohorts of Medicare beneficiaries with PAD from 2006 through 2009. Results: Among 14,685 eligible patients, 5928 endovascular and 5928 open revascularization patients were included in matched analysis. Patients undergoing endovascular repair had improved amputation-free survival compared with open repair at 30 days (7.4 vs 8.9%, P = 0.002). This benefit persisted over the long term: At 4 years, 49% of endovascular patients had died or received major amputation compared with 54% of open patients (P < 0.001). An endovascular procedure was associated with a risk-adjusted 16% decreased risk of amputation or death compared with open over the study period (hazard ratio: 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.79–0.89; P < 0.001). The amputation-free survival benefit associated with an endovascular revascularization was more pronounced in patients with congestive heart failure or ischemic heart disease than in those without (P = 0.021 for interaction term). The rate of subsequent intervention at 30 days was 7.4% greater for the endovascular vs the open revascularization cohort. At 4 years, this difference remained stable at 8.6%. Conclusions: Using population-based data, we demonstrate that an endovascular approach is associated with improved amputation-free survival over the long term with only a modest relative increased risk of subsequent intervention.OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to determine whether endovascular or open revascularization provides an advantageous approach to symptomatic peripheral arterial disease (PAD) over the longer term. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA The optimal revascularization strategy for symptomatic lower extremity PAD is not established. METHODS We evaluated amputation-free survival, overall survival, and relative rate of subsequent vascular intervention after endovascular or open lower extremity revascularization for propensity-score matched cohorts of Medicare beneficiaries with PAD from 2006 through 2009. RESULTS Among 14,685 eligible patients, 5928 endovascular and 5928 open revascularization patients were included in matched analysis. Patients undergoing endovascular repair had improved amputation-free survival compared with open repair at 30 days (7.4 vs 8.9%, P = 0.002). This benefit persisted over the long term: At 4 years, 49% of endovascular patients had died or received major amputation compared with 54% of open patients (P < 0.001). An endovascular procedure was associated with a risk-adjusted 16% decreased risk of amputation or death compared with open over the study period (hazard ratio: 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.89; P < 0.001). The amputation-free survival benefit associated with an endovascular revascularization was more pronounced in patients with congestive heart failure or ischemic heart disease than in those without (P = 0.021 for interaction term). The rate of subsequent intervention at 30 days was 7.4% greater for the endovascular vs the open revascularization cohort. At 4 years, this difference remained stable at 8.6%. CONCLUSIONS Using population-based data, we demonstrate that an endovascular approach is associated with improved amputation-free survival over the long term with only a modest relative increased risk of subsequent intervention.

Practice variations in voice treatment selection following vocal fold mucosal resection.

To characterize initial voice treatment selection following vocal fold mucosal resection in a Medicare population.

Analysis of 90-day cost for open versus minimally invasive distal pancreatectomy

BACKGROUND Minimally invasive distal pancreatectomy (MIDP) is associated with improved peri-operative outcomes compared to the open approach, though cost-effectiveness of MIDP remains unclear. METHODS Patients with pancreatic tumors undergoing open (ODP), robotic (RDP), or laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy (LDP) between 2012-2014 were identified through the Truven Health MarketScan® Database. Median costs (payments) for the index operation and 90-day readmissions were calculated. Multivariable regression was used to predict associations with log 90-day payments. RESULTS 693 patients underwent ODP, 146 underwent LDP, and 53 RDP. Compared to ODP, LDP and RDP resulted in shorter median length of stay (6 d. ODP vs. 5 d. RDP vs. 4 d. LDP, p<0.01) and lower median payments (