Jeffrey J. Reimer

Assessing Global Computable General Equilibrium Model Validity Using Agricultural Price Volatility

Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are commonly used for global agricultural market analysis. Concerns are sometimes raised, however, about the quality of their output since key parameters may not be econometrically estimated and little emphasis is generally given to model assessment. This article addresses the latter issue by developing an approach to validating CGE models based on the ability to reproduce observed price volatility in agricultural markets. We show how patterns in the deviations between model predictions and validation criteria can be used to identify the weak points of a model and guide development of improved specifications with firmer empirical foundations.

Vertical Integration in the Pork Industry

This article provides an economic explanation regarding why the share of U.S. pork raised on company-owned farms with hired management (integration) is increasing relative to production through independently owned-and-operated contract growers (contracting). The article develops a property rights model that shows how in certain circumstances production contracts do not transfer sufficient control over the use of production assets to intermediaries. On the other hand, integration removes certain grower incentives, with the result that production on company farms tends to be relatively costly. Practical examples of factors that influence the likelihood of full integration are emphasized.

Estimation of International Demand Behaviour for Use with Input-Output Based Data

The making of projections often requires an economy-wide perspective, and the estimation of consumer demands at the international level. In this paper, an implicit, directly additive demand system (AIDADS) is estimated using cross- country data on consumer expenditures from two different sources: the International Comparison Programme (ICP), and the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). The two data sets are found to produce results that are quite consistent despite their differing origins, and the fact that the former is based on consumer goods that embody wholesale/retail margins, while margin demands are treated separately in GTAP. Given the similarity of the results, the estimation based on GTAP data is favoured for economy-wide projection purposes because it can be readily matched to input-output based production and trade data. An additional benefit of the GTAP-based estimates is that they provide direct evidence concerning how aggregate margin expenditures vary with per capita income.

Imperfect Competition and Strategic Trade Theory: Evidence for International Food and Agricultural Markets

Strategic trade theory offers a way of conceptualizing and testing for strategic government interventions in imperfectly competitive international markets. This survey critically assesses recent empirical evidence, with a focus on food and agricultural markets. One finding is that while many international markets are characterized by oligopoly, price-cost markups tend to be small, and the potential gains from intervention are modest at best. In turn, empirical work has turned up few examples in which government intervention has been optimal in a strategic trade sense. Nonetheless, governments are found to frequently intervene on behalf of domestic firms and play a major role in shaping the nature of international competition. Suggestions for future research are made.

Nonhomothetic Preferences and International Trade

This study examines whether nonhomothetic preferences underlie the “missing trade” problem associated with factor content of trade models. We first find that per capita income goes a long way in explaining differences in goods consumption across countries. We then find a striking correlation between the factor content of consumption and per capita income, and show that accounting for this is a key part of resolving the case of the missing trade. However, nonhomothetic preferences over broad categories of expenditure play only a small role in this phenomenon. Rather, we find that as income grows, spending is directed towards the relatively capital-intensive version of a given good. Since recent research shows that capital intensity is correlated with quality (Schott, 2004), our results suggest that within-product quality differences are likely important for explaining the factor content of trade, whereas nonhomothetic preferences over broad categories of expenditure are much less so.

The Contribution of Productivity Linkages to the General Equilibrium Analysis of Free Trade Agreements

Applied general equilibrium (AGE) analysis is often found to under-predict the increases in trade and economic growth that result from trade liberalization. One potential reason is that conventional AGE models ignore the strong correlations that exist between firm productivity, on the one hand, and exporting, importing, and investment, on the other. To examine this possibility, this study incorporates econometric evidence of these linkages into the dynamic Global Trade Analysis Project AGE model, and then uses this model to analyze a recently proposed East Asian free trade agreement. While conventional AGE modeling effects are found to predominate and be reinforced by the productivity effects, in some cases the latter actually reverse the changes predicted by the conventional effects.

The water footprint of staple crop trade under climate and policy scenarios

Trade in staple crop commodities has become increasingly important in the global food system,with ramifications for both food security andwater resources sustainability. It is thus essential to understand how thewater footprint (WF)of staple crop trademay change in the future. To this end,weproject international staple crop trade and itsWFunder climate andpolicy scenarios for the year 2030.Weuse theH08 global hydrologicmodel to determine the impact of climatic changes to staple crop yields and evapotranspiration.Using the yield changes projectedwith theH08model, we estimate the bilateral trade of staple crops using theGlobalTradeAnalysis Projectmodel.We combine these projections to obtain the total and blueWFof agricultural trade and globalwater savings (GWS) across scenarios. This approach enables us to determine the direct impact of climate change and trade liberalization—together and in isolation—on theWFof staple crop trade. Importantly, we show that trade liberalization leads to greaterWF,making it a potentially important adaptationmeasure to a changing climate, although future work is needed to distinguish high resolution cropwater use,water stress, and commodity transfers.

Yield Variability and Agricultural Trade

We examine how changes in yield variability affect the welfare of cereal grain and oilseed buyers and producers around the world. We simulate trade patterns and welfare for 21 countries with a Ricardian trade model that incorporates bilateral trade costs and crop yield distributions. The model shows that world trade volumes would need to increase substantially if crop yield variability were to rise. Net welfare effects, however, are moderate so long as countries do not resort to policies that inhibit trade, such as export restrictions or measures to promote self-sufficiency in crops. Low-income countries suffer the most from increases in yield variability, due to higher bilateral trade costs and lower-than-average productivity.

Malaria and Economic Development

Malaria tends to have a negative correlation with national income per capita. Many existing studies emphasize how falling rates of malaria can enhance economic development due to the beneficial effect on human capital. This paper emphasizes that causality may also run in the opposite direction, in particular, that higher incomes—arising for reasons having nothing to do with human capital—may allow for increased prevention and treatment of malaria, and therefore contribute to the negative correlation. We analyze the malaria-income relationship for 100 endemic countries over a 17-year period using a simultaneous equations model that accounts for reverse causality and incidental associations. For most countries, income growth has been the most important driver of the negative correlation between malaria and income. Although reducing malaria may be its own reward, it takes much more than reductions in malaria to foster development.This holds widely for different samples of countries.

Export Demand Elasticity Estimation for Major U.S. Crops

Elevated prices for major U.S. commodities have renewed interest in the price sensitivity of foreign demand facing the United States. Although the elasticity of foreign demand plays an important role in discussions of U.S. farm policy, it is also a parameter that is much debated with the majority of studies in this area published over 20 years ago. We provide new estimates of the elasticity of export demand for U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat using updated data and empirical techniques. Our estimates are useful for practical policy analysis as well as for researchers seeking to parameterize large-scale simulation models.