Jeffrey M Casello

Effective Environmental Visualization for Urban Planning and Design: Interdisciplinary Reflections on a Rapidly Evolving Technology

Visioning exercises using computer-based environmental visualization hold significant promise for communicating information and engaging communities in the development and review of planning proposals. The field of visualization research and practice has achieved significant advances in computer technology to the point where it is now possible to represent alternative planning and engineering scenarios with a high degree of photographic realism, data-driven accuracy, and spatial and temporal interactivity. However, the gap in our understanding of what static, video, and agent-based visualization technologies can do and how they should be applied to facilitate rather than frustrate participatory planning has expanded considerably. In the following discussion, the authors discuss the meaning and significance of effective visualization use for urban planning and design. Drawing on developments and principles from related disciplines where visualization tools are developed and applied (e.g., architecture, landscape architecture, resource management, transportation engineering) we present a case for minimum standards in visualization preparation and presentation, the use of “null alternative” scenarios for plan development and review, research to address the “perceptual effectiveness” of video-based formats, and collaborative technology development.

Quantifying Impacts of Transit Reliability on User Costs

Transportation modeling frameworks assume that travelers are economically rational; that is, they choose the lowest-cost alternative to complete a desired trip. The reliability of travel time is of critical importance to travelers. The ability to quantify reliability allows planners to estimate more accurately how system performance influences local travel behavior and to evaluate more appropriately potential investments in the transportation system infrastructure. This paper presents a methodology that makes use of automatic vehicle location data from the regional municipality of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, to estimate the reliability of transit service. On the basis of these data, the impacts of unreliable service on generalized transit user costs are quantified by use of a simulation model of bus arrivals and passengers’ desired arrival times. It is shown that the increasing reliability of arrivals at a station can decrease transit users’ generalized costs significantly and by as much as 15% in a reasonably reliable network. It is further posited that the inclusion of uncertainty in the calculation of generalized costs may provide better estimates of mode splits in travel forecasting models. A description of future applications of the model concludes the paper.

Modeling Cyclists' Route Choice Based on GPS Data

With the increased emphasis on sustainable transportation, advancements are necessary in the technical methods used in the planning and engineering of investments for nonmotorized modes. This paper used GPS data on cyclists’ activities to estimate a utility or generalized-cost function that reflects cyclists’ evaluation of path alternatives. For 724 cycling trips, path attributes were compiled of the observed cycling path to four feasible but not-chosen alternatives. With two logit formulations, the relative importance of statistically significant path parameters—length, auto speed, grade, and the presence (or absence) of bike lanes—was estimated. Then the predictive powers of the models were tested on 181 trips that were observed in the same data set but were not used to calibrate the model. In the best case, this model correctly predicted the actual path for 65% of these trips; for an additional 13% of trips, the difference in probabilities of selecting the best alternative path and the actual path was less than 5%. These results were interpreted to mean that relatively robust path choice (and ultimately mode choice) models may be generated and included in enhanced multimodal travel forecasting models.

Impacts of Express Bus Service on Passenger Demand

The Region of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, is a rapidly-growing metropolitan area approximately 100 km west of Toronto. In 2005, the Region’s transit operator, Grand River Transit, introduced an express bus service, known as iXpress, along the central north-south corridor of the Region. This paper explores the impact of the iXpress service on transit user costs and passenger attraction. The authors employ a methodology to quantify the generalized cost (including waiting time, in-vehicle, and transfer times) of transit trips between key destinations in the Region before and after the implementation of iXpress. A methodology is also developed to identify those customers who benefit from the reduced cost of the iXpress. Lastly, the authors present the change in ridership (boardings) in the corridor pre- and post-implementation. From this demand and cost data, transit elasticity of demand with respect to generalized cost is computed.

Predicting the Mean and Variance of Transit Segment and Route Travel Times

Travel time characteristics of transit vehicles such as mean and standard deviation (SD) are of critical importance in both transit planning and operations. Predicting these measures not only helps transit agencies schedule and allocate resources more accurately but also facilitates the development of more robust mode choice and departure time models. Data from automatic vehicle locations and automatic passenger counting, as well as outputs from a travel forecasting model, were used in presenting a methodology to predict the mean and the SD of travel times for proposed transit routes. Models were generated in two ways. First, mean and SD of travel time were estimated by regressing observed values against roadway and operational characteristics. The SD was estimated between origins and destinations by considering the SDs of individual segments and the correlation between segments. Advantages and disadvantages of these two methods were evaluated. The models were calibrated and validated with automatic vehicle location data from the bus system serving the Regional Municipality of Waterloo in Ontario, Canada.

Anxiety-Based Formulation to Estimate Generalized Cost of Transit Travel Time

This paper examines the effect of unreliable transit service on transit user costs with the goal of increasing the accuracy of mode choice models. The concept advanced here is to include explicitly in the formulation of mode choice models the anxiety experienced by passengers when service is unreliable because of late departure or longer-than-expected in-vehicle travel time. This anxiety is modeled as a generalized cost penalty that is added to actual in-vehicle time. The magnitude of the penalty depends on travelers’ assessment of the likelihood of arriving on time at their destination. It is believed that this formulation of anxiety is behaviorally representative. To test the effects of the formulation, a simulation model is generated that quantifies the anxiety component of generalized cost for 10,000 travelers with various aversions to risk for travel between station pairs with different observed reliabilities. Results suggest that primarily for risk-averse travelers, but also for other classes, anxiety may constitute a high percentage of total generalized cost, which may explain many travelers’ unwillingness to choose transit in cases in which deterministic models suggest that they will. Calibrating a model of this type presents substantial challenges. An approach is introduced that is currently being pursued to gather actual anxiety levels as a function of transit travel reliability. The paper concludes with comments on future research directions.

Objectives of Private Bus Operators in Evaluating Transit Investments in Developing Countries: Conceptual Framework

This paper discusses appropriate evaluation techniques for assessing transit proposals in developing countries. With the shift of ownership models in past decades from fully public to fully private and eventually to consolidated franchising models, successful transit projects require the analysis of several indirect costs associated with changing ownership. These indirect costs include (a) the potential loss of personal income for local bus operators if the new investment precludes their continued operation, (b) negative personal impacts on self-worth and changing business dynamics, and (c) long-term impacts on the ability of the government to implement future projects as a result of obstacles that may result from the first two costs. In the proposed methodology these costs are explicitly considered in the evaluation process. The way that various ownership models in current use influence—either positively or negatively—such indirect costs is assessed. The paper concludes that full involvement of local bus operators typically minimizes these indirect costs but may be difficult to achieve, depending on the number and characteristics of the operators in the corridor for which the development is proposed. The paper presents a detailed assessment of the conditions under which full involvement is possible and suggests alternative techniques to advance the idea of local operator involvement.

Public Engagement in Public Transportation Projects: Challenges and Recommendations

Public participation for transit projects faces a number of unique challenges compared with many other similar public investments. For example, a smaller subset of the community uses transit on a daily basis as compared with highways; moreover, public transit is seen to be limited—both spatially and demographically—in its appeal. Combined, these factors can limit the widespread engagement of the public in the development and evaluation of transit projects. Further, given the lack of direct benefits from transit, it is often more difficult to garner public support for public transport projects. Specific considerations and techniques are demonstrated that can be undertaken by planners and policy makers to actively engage the community beyond those strongly in favor of or opposed to a transit project. Strategies employed in the Region of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, in the context of public engagement before the introduction of light-rail transit are explored. In light of these strategies and the experiences of planners in Waterloo and in conjunction with evidence from the literature, a number of conclusions are drawn regarding an effective framework for engaging a wide spectrum of community members in transit planning.

A Transit Technology Selection Model

This paper presents an easy-to-use model to assist in technology selection for transit planning. The model computes annual costs for two technologies—currently BRT and LRT—for a system with characteristics specified by the user and from “real-world” operating data. The model computes the annualized capital and operating costs over a wide range of demand; it also calculates location-specific, energy-related emissions for both technologies’ operations. Most importantly, the model allows the user to test the sensitivity of the technology selection result to nearly all inputs. The model is applied to a recent case in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, to verify its functionality. The results show that, economically, these two technologies result in very similar annual costs for “normal” demand levels. As a result, small changes in assumed input values for period of evaluation, interest rates, labor costs, and infrastructure costs can result in a change in recommended technology.

Evaluating Private Bus Operators' Willingness to Participate in Transit Improvements in Mexico

Inputs are provided for the decision-making process of transit improvements in developing countries. With an analysis of the willingness of private bus operators to participate in transit improvements, political feasibility can be assessed, and the likelihood of successful implementation can be increased. Data from 156 surveys conducted in cities in Mexico are used to develop probabilistic models that quantify the influence of private bus operators’ characteristics, perceptions about business and operating efficiencies, and their relationship with government on their willingness to participate. Evidence shows that several elements can increase the willingness of private operators to participate in government-led proposals. These elements include the level of trust and communication between private bus operators and government authorities, the economic power of private bus operators, and the attachment to the status quo. Several features are shown to limit operators’ willingness to participate, including the model of operation, likelihood of lost revenue through taxation, and concerns about the potential modifications of their legal rights to operate. An analysis of Mexico City, Mexico, and surrounding areas demonstrates the need to establish a well-defined strategy for engaging private bus operators in transit improvements; failure to do so has resulted in much less trust of government and led to more conflicts about future projects. The importance of analyzing private bus operators’ participative profiles in the assessment of transit improvements is revealed. Selected areas for improvements might present challenges for engaging private bus operators in proposed improvements.