Jen Mailley

The Crime Drop and the Security Hypothesis

Major crime drops were experienced in the United States and most other industrialized countries for a decade from the early to mid-1990s. Yet there is little agreement over explanation or lessons for policy. Here it is proposed that change in the quantity and quality of security was a key driver of the crime drop. From evidence relating to vehicle theft in two countries, it is concluded that electronic immobilizers and central locking were particularly effective. It is suggested that reduced car theft may have induced drops in other crime including violence. From this platform, a broader security hypothesis, linked to routine activity and opportunity theory, is outlined.

Exploring the international decline in crime rates

This paper examines aggregate crime trends and variation around them from 1988 to 2004 for 26 countries and five main crime types using data from the International Crime Victims Survey. Multilevel statistical analysis is used to identify the main trends. Major drops in crime were experienced in many countries from the early to mid-1990s onwards. The current analysis estimates that between 1995 and 2004, the mean international crime incidence reductions were: 77.1 percent in theft from cars, 60.3 percent in theft from person, 26.0 percent in burglary, 20.6 percent in assault and 16.8 percent in car theft. The study results suggest that, with the exception of burglary, all examined crime types fell by roughly the same rate across countries. The sample’s small number of countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia experienced even steeper reductions in burglary than occurred in Europe, North America and Australia.