Jenni Barclay

Experimental phase equilibria constraints on pre-eruptive storage conditions of the Soufriere Hills magma

New experimental results are used to constrain the P. T, X(H 2 O) conditions of the Soufriere Hills magma prior to ascent and eruption. The experiments were performed on a powdered andesite erupted in January, 1996, at an fO 2 corresponding to ∼NNO+1 with P H2 O and temperatures in the range 50 to 200 MPa and 800 to 940°C. Amphibole is stable at P H2 O >115 MPa and temperatures 72 wt% SiO 2 in residual melt) at P H2 O >115 MPa. Analyses of rhyolitic glass inclusions in quartz and plagioclase from recently erupted samples indicate melt water contents of 4.27±0.54 wt% H 2 O and CO 2 contents <60 ppm. The evolved Soufriere Hills magma would therefore be H 2 O-saturated at pressures <130 MPa. These results suggest that the Soufriere Hills magma containing the stable assemblage amphibole, quartz, plagioclase, orthopyroxene, magnetite and ilmenite was stored at P H2 O of 115-130 MPa, equivalent to a minimum depth for a water-saturated magma chamber of 5-6 km depth. Magma temperatures were initially low (820-840°C). Quartz is believed to have been destabilised by a heating event involving injection of new basaltic magma. The stability field of hornblende provides a useful upper limit (∼880°C) for the extent of this reheating.

Magma production and growth of the lava dome of the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies: November 1995 to December 1997

From November 1995 to December 1997 a total volume of 246 × 106 (DRE) m³ of andesite magma erupted, partitioned into 93 × 106 m³ of the dome, 125 × 106 m³ of pyroclastic flow deposits and 28 × 106 m³ of explosive ejecta. In the first 11 weeks magma discharge rate was low (0.5 m³/s). From February 1996 to May 1997 discharge rates have averaged 2.1 m³/s, but have fluctuated significantly and have increased with time. Three pulses lasting a few months can be recognised with discharge rates reaching 3 to 8 m³/s. Short term pulsations in growth lasting a few days reach discharge rates of over 10 m³/s and there are periods of days to a few weeks when dome growth is < 0.5 m³/s. Discharge rate increased from May 1997 with an average rate of 7.5 m³/s to December 1997. The observations indicate an open magmatic system.

The role of magma mixing in triggering the current eruption at the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies

The andesite lava currently erupting at the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, contains ubiquitous mafic inclusions which show evidence of having been molten when incorporated into the andesite. The andesite phenocrysts have a range of textures and zonation patterns which suggest that non-uniform reheating of the magma occurred shortly before the current eruption. Reheating resulted in remobilisation of the resident magma and may have induced eruption.

Generation of a debris avalanche and violent pyroclastic density current on 26 December (Boxing Day) 1997 at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Abstract Growth of an andesitic lava dome at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, beginning in November 1995, caused instability of a hydrothermally altered flank of the volcano. Catastrophic failure occurred on 26 December 1997, 14 months after the instability was first recognized. Two months before failure a dome lobe had extruded over the unstable area and by 25 December 1997 this had a volume of 113 x 106m3. At 03:01 (local time) the flank rocks and some dome talus failed and generated a debris avalanche (volume 46 x 106 m3). Between 35 and 45 x 106 m3 of the dome then collapsed, generating a violent pyroclastic density current that devastated 10 km2 of southern Montserrat. The failure of the flank and dome formed two adjacent bowl-shaped collapse depressions. The most intense activity lasted about 11.6 minutes. The hummocky debris avalanche deposit is composed of a mixture of domains of heterolithic breccia. The pyroclastic density current had an estimated peak velocity of 80-90 ms-1, and minimum flux of 108 kgs1. The current was largely erosional on land with most deposition out at sea. Destructive effects included removal of houses, trees and large vehicles, and formation of a scoured surface blackened by a thin (3-4 mm) layer of tar. Two discrete depositional units formed from the pyroclastic density current, each with a lower coarse-grained layer and an upper fine-grained stratified layer. These deposits are overlain by an ashfall layer related to buoyant lofting of the current. Flank failure is attributed to loading of hydrothermally weakened rocks by the dome. The generation of the pyroclastic density current is attributed to failure and explosive disintegration of the dome, involving release and violent expansion of gases initially at high pore pressures.

Pre-eruptive volatile content and degassing history of an evolving peralkaline volcano

Abstract The volatile contents of melt inclusions trapped within phenocrysts of quartz and feldspar in peralkaline rhyolites from Mayor Island, New Zealand, have been studied using Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and ion microprobe analyses. The glass inclusions analyzed span the ~ 130 ka subaerial eruptive history of the island and come from volcanic deposits representing a wide range of eruptive styles (explosive vs. effusive, magmatic vs. phreatomagmatic, low vs. high discharge rates). The water content of all inclusions analysed is uniformly high at ~ 4.4 wt.% H2O, whereas CO2 contents are below the limits of detection (~ 50 ppm). Chlorine in melt inclusions ranges from 2070 to 5200 ppm, while coexisting matrix glasses have generally lower Cl concentrations of 1700–4200 ppm; the apparent bulk distribution coefficient describing Cl partitioning between melt and vapor phase ([Cl]fluid/[Cl]melt) during degassing is 5–15. Fluorine appears to be less affected by eruptive degassing than is Cl, and melt inclusion and matrix glass F concentrations show significant overlap (1400–2520 ppm F in inclusions, 1550–2890 ppm F in matrix glass). The observed invariance of melt inclusion water content with sample age contrasts with ion microprobe data on incompatible trace elements (e.g., Zr, Nb), which suggest ~ 35% fractionation between the oldest and youngest samples. This, along with the Cl partitioning behaviour, suggests that at least the upper erupting portion of the Mayor Island magma chamber was water saturated throughout the volcanos 130 ka eruptive history. Furthermore, the large range of eruptive styles observed on Mayor Island are not due to differences in water concentration of the erupting magma but instead must reflect differences in rates of magma ascent and supply (which control the efficiency of non-explosive degassing).

Framing volcanic risk communication within disaster risk reduction: finding ways for the social and physical sciences to work together

Abstract Sixteen years have passed since the last global volcanic event and more than 25 since a volcanic catastrophe that killed tens of thousands. In this time, volcanology has seen major advances in understanding, modelling and predicting volcanic hazards and, recently, an interest in techniques for reducing and mitigating volcanic risk. This paper provides a synthesis of literature relating to this last aspect, specifically the communication of volcanic risk, with a view to highlighting areas of future research into encouraging risk-reducing behaviour. Evidence suggests that the current ‘multidisciplinary’ approach within physical science needs a broader scope to include sociological knowledge and techniques. Key areas where this approach might be applied are: (1) the understanding of the incentives that make governments and communities act to reduce volcanic risk; (2) improving the communication of volcanic uncertainties in volcanic emergency management and long-term planning and development. To be successful, volcanic risk reduction programmes will need to be placed within the context of other other risk-related phenomena (e.g. other natural hazards, climate change) and aim to develop an all-risks reduction culture. We suggest that the greatest potential for achieving these two aims comes from deliberative inclusive processes and geographic information systems.

Analytical models for bubble growth during decompression of high viscosity magmas

Analytical models for decompressional bubble growth in a viscous magma are developed to establish the influence of high magma viscosity on vesiculation and to assess the time-scales on which bubbles respond to decompression. Instantaneous decompression of individual bubbles, analogous to a sudden release of pressure (e.g. sector collapse), is considered for two end-member cases. The infinite melt model considers the growth of an isolated bubble before significant bubble interaction occurs. The shell model considers the growth of a bubble surrounded by a thin shell and is analogous to bubble growth in a highly vesicular magmatic foam. Results from the shell model show that magmas less viscous than ≈109 Pa s can freely expand without developing strong overpressures. The timescales for pressure re-equilibration are shortened by increased ratios of bubble radius to shell thickness and by larger decompression. Time-scales for isolated bubbles in rhyolitic melts (infinite melt model) are significantly longer, implying that such bubbles could experience internal pressures greater than the ambient pressure for at least a few hours following a sudden release of pressure. The shell model is developed to assess bubble growth during the linear decompression of a magma body of constant viscosity. For the range of decompression rates and viscosities associated with actual volcanic eruptions, bubble growth continues at approximately the equilibrium rate, with no attendant excess of internal pressure. The results imply that viscosity does not have any significant role in preventing the explosive expansion of high viscosity foams. However, for viscosities of >109 Pa s there is the potential for a ‘viscosity quench’ under the extreme decompression rates of an explosive eruption. It is proposed that the typical vesicularities of pumice of 0.7–0.8 are a consequence of the viscosity of the degassing magmas becoming sufficiently high to inhibit bubble expansion over the characteristic time-scale of eruption. For fully degassed silicic lavas with viscosities in the range 1010 to 1012 Pa s time-scales for decompression of isolated bubbles can be hours to many months.

Rainfall-induced lahars in the Belham Valley, Montserrat, West Indies

Rain falling on loose volcanic debris over the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat generates hazardous floods in the Belham Valley. These rainfall-induced lahars vary greatly in discharge and sediment concentration in space and time. They differ from examples documented on other volcanoes in that: (1) the eruption has been continuing since July 1995, generating repeated pulses of excess sediment; (2) rainfall is the only significant trigger; (3) the system is small, with short distance to the sea and relatively low altitude at the catchment top. Repeat mapping and comparison with pre-eruption data demonstrate significant geomorphological change, with c. 120 m shoreline progradation and c. 0.4 m a−1 mean aggradation rate in the middle to lower valley. The nature of the hazard and area of risk have changed as the valley has aggraded, the channel widened and the runoff efficiency increased (as a result of rilling and vegetation removal). Lahars in the Belham Valley correlate with days when >10 mm rain fell in 24 h, with more events triggered in the late rainy season. The flows are mainly Newtonian but one non-Newtonian flow event has been demonstrated and is described in detail (20 March 2000). This flow is explained by direct volcanic ash input to the runoff.

Chapter 16 Pre-eruptive vapour and its role in controlling eruption style and longevity at Soufrière Hills Volcano

Abstract We use volatiles in melt inclusions and nominally anhydrous phenocrysts, with volcanic gas flux and composition, and textural analysis of mafic inclusions to estimate the mass of exsolved vapour prior to eruption at Soufrière Hills Volcano (SHV). Pre-eruptive andesite coexists with exsolved vapour comprising 1.6–2.4 wt% of the bulk magma. The water content of orthopyroxenes indicates a zone of magma storage at pressures of approximately 200–300 MPa, whereas melt inclusions have equilibrated at shallower pressures. Inclusions containing >3 wt% H2O are enriched in CO2, suggesting flushing with CO2-rich gases. Intruding mafic magma contains >8 wt% H2O at 200–300 MPa. Rapid quenching is accompanied by crystallization and vesiculation. Upon entrainment into the andesite, mafic inclusions may undergo disaggregation, where expansion of volatiles in the interior overcomes the strength of the crystal frameworks, thereby recharging the vapour content of the andesite. Exsolved vapour may amount to 4.3–8.2 vol% at 300 MPa, with implications for eruption longevity and volume; we estimate the magma reservoir volume to be 60–200 km3. Exsolved vapour may account for the small volume change at depth during eruptions from geodetic models, and has implications for magma flow: exsolution is likely to be in equilibrium during rapid magma ascent, with little nucleation of new bubbles.

Global volcanic hazards and risk

1. An introduction to global volcanic hazard and risk S. C. Loughlin, C. Vye-Brown, R. S. J. Sparks, S. K. Brown, J. Barclay, E. Calder, E. Cottrell, G. Jolly, J.-C. Komorowski, C. Mandeville, C. Newhall, J. Palma, S. Potter, G. Valentine, B. Baptie, J. Biggs, H. S. Crosweller, E. Ilyinskaya, C. Kilburn, K. Mee and M. Pritchard 2. Global volcanic hazard and risk S. K. Brown, S. C. Loughlin, R. S. J. Sparks, C. Vye-Brown, J. Barclay, E. Calder, E. Cottrell, G. Jolly, J.-C. Komorowski, C. Mandeville, C. Newhall, J. Palma, S. Potter, G. Valentine, B. Baptie, J. Biggs, H. S. Crosweller, E. Ilyinskaya, C. Kilburn, K. Mee and M. Pritchard 3. Volcanic ash fall hazard and risk S. F. Jenkins, T. M. Wilson, C. Magill, V. Miller, C. Stewart, R. Blong, W. Marzocchi, M. Boulton, C. Bonadonna and A. Costa 4. Populations around Holocene volcanoes and development of a Population Exposure Index S. K. Brown, M. R. Auker and R. S. J. Sparks 5. An integrated approach to Determining Volcanic Risk in Auckland, New Zealand: the multidisciplinary DEVORA project N. I. Deligne, J. M. Lindsay and E. Smid 6. Tephra fall hazard for the Neapolitan area W. Marzocchi, J. Selva, A. Costa, L. Sandri, R. Tonini and G. Macedonio 7. Eruptions and lahars of Mount Pinatubo, 1991-2000 C. G. Newhall and R. Solidum 8. Improving crisis decision-making at times of uncertain volcanic unrest (Guadeloupe, 1976) J.-C. Komorowski, T. Hincks, R. S. J. Sparks, W. Aspinall and CASAVA ANR project consortium 9. Forecasting the November 2010 eruption of Merapi, Indonesia J. Pallister and Surono 10. The importance of communication in hazard zone areas: case study during and after 2010 Merapi eruption, Indonesia S. Andreastuti, J. Subandriyo, S. Sumarti and D. Sayudi 11. Nyiragongo (Democratic Republic of Congo), January 2002: a major eruption in the midst of a complex humanitarian emergency J.-C. Komorowski and K. Karume 12. Volcanic ash fall impacts T. M. Wilson, S. F. Jenkins and C. Stewart 13. Health impacts of volcanic eruptions C. Horwell, P. Baxter and R. Kamanyire 14. Volcanoes and the aviation industry P. W. Webley 15. The role of volcano observatories in risk reduction G. Jolly 16. Developing effective communication tools for volcanic hazards in New Zealand, using social science G. Leonard and S. Potter 17. Volcano monitoring from space M. Poland 18. Volcanic unrest and short-term forecasting capacity J. Gottsmann 19. Global monitoring capacity: development of the Global Volcano Research and Monitoring Institutions Database and analysis of monitoring in Latin America N. Ortiz Guerrero, S. K. Brown, H. Delgado Granados and C. Lombana Criollo 20. Volcanic hazard maps E. Calder, K. Wagner and S. E. Ogburn 21. Risk assessment case history: the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat W. Aspinall and G. Wadge 22. Development of a new global Volcanic Hazard Index (VHI) M. R. Auker, R. S. J. Sparks, S. F. Jenkins, S. K. Brown, W. Aspinall, N. I. Deligne, G. Jolly, S. C. Loughlin, W. Marzocchi, C. G. Newhall and J. L. Palma 23. Global distribution of volcanic threat S. K. Brown, R. S. J. Sparks and S. F. Jenkins 24. Scientific communication of uncertainty during volcanic emergencies J. Marti 25. Volcano Disaster Assistance Program: preventing volcanic crises from becoming disasters and advancing science diplomacy J. Pallister 26. Communities coping with uncertainty and reducing their risk: the collaborative monitoring and management of volcanic activity with the Vigias of Tungurahua J. Stone, J. Barclay, P. Ramon, P. Mothes and STREVA.