Jennie Barron

Dry spell analysis and maize yields for two semi-arid locations in East Africa

High variability in rainfall occurrence and amounts together with high evaporative demand create severe constraints for crop growth and yields in dry sub-humid and semi-arid farming areas in east Africa. Meteorological analyses on rainfall distribution are common, but generally focus on assessing drought occurrence on annual and seasonal basis. This paper presents two types of seasonal dry spell analysis, using easy accessible data on daily rainfall and evapotranspiration for two semi-arid locations in east Africa for 20-23 years. The meteorological dry spell analysis was obtained by Markov chain process, and the agricultural dry spell analysis used rainfall data in a simple water balance model also describing impact on maize (Zea mays L.) growth due to water availability on clay or sandy soil. The meteorological dry spell analysis showed a minimum probability of 20% of dry spells exceeding 10 days at both sites, increasing to 70% or more depending on onset of season, during approximate flowering and early grain filling stage. The agricultural dry spell analysis showed that maize was exposed to at least one dry spell of 10 days or longer in 74-80% of seasons at both sites. Maize on sandy soil experienced dry spells exceeding 10 days, three-four times more often than maize on clay soil during flowering and grain filling stages. In addition, the water balance analysis indicated substantial water losses by surface runoff and deep percolation as the crop utilised only 36-64% on average of seasonal rainfall. Such large proportion of non-productive water flow in the field water balance may provide scope for dry spell mitigation through improved water management strategies.

Rainwater management for increased productivity among small-holder farmers in drought prone environments

Abstract A critical analysis of conventional water resources assessments and re-visiting the on-farm water balance suggests large scopes for water productivity improvements in small-holder rainfed farming systems in drought prone environments of Eastern and Southern Africa. The paper addresses key management challenges in trying to upgrade rainfed agriculture, and presents a set of field experiences on system options for increased water productivity in small-holder farming. Implications for watershed management are discussed, and the links between water productivity for food and securing of water flow to sustain ecosystem services are briefly analysed. Focus is on sub-Saharan Africa hosting the largest food deficit and water scarcity challenges. The paper shows that there are no agro-hydrological limitations to doubling on-farm staple food yields even in drought prone environments, by producing more “crop per drop” of rain. Field evidence is presented suggesting that meteorological dry spells are an important cause for low yield levels and it is hypothesised that this may constitute a core driver behind farmers risk aversion strategies. The dry spell induced risk perceptions contribute amongst others to soil nutrient mining due to insignificant investments in fertilisation. For many small-holder farmers in the semi-arid tropics it is simply not worth investing in fertilisation (and other external inputs) as long as the risk for crop failure remains a reality every fifth year with risk of yield reductions every second year, due to periodic water scarcity during the growing season (i.e., not necessarily cumulative water scarcity). Results are presented from field research on small-holder system innovations in the field of water harvesting and conservation tillage. Upgrading rainfed production systems through supplemental irrigation during short dry-spells is shown to dramatically increase water productivity. Downstream implications of increased upstream withdrawals of water for upgrading of rainfed food production are discussed. Finally it is argued that some of the most exciting opportunities for water productivity enhancements in rainfed agriculture are found in the realm of integrating components of irrigation management within the context of rainfed farming, e.g., supplemental or micro irrigation for dry spell mitigation. Combining such practices with management strategies that enhance soil infiltration, improve water holding capacity and plant water uptake potential, can have strong impact on agricultural water productivity. This suggests that it is probably time to abandon the largely obsolete distinction between irrigated and rainfed agriculture, and instead focus on integrated rainwater management.

Seasonal rainfall partitioning under runon and runoff conditions on sandy soil in Niger. On-farm measurements and water balance modelling

In sparsely cropped farming systems in semi-arid tropics, rainfall partitioning can be complex due to various interactions between vertical and horizontal water flows, both in the atmosphere and in the soil. Despite this, quantifying the seasonal rainfall partitioning is essential, in order to identify options for increased yields. Results are presented on water flow components, based on field measurements and water balance modelling, for three years (1994–96) in a farmers field cultivated with pearl millet [Pennisetum glaucum (L.) Br.] in the Sahel (Niger). Water balance modelling was carried out for three common infiltration categories: runoff producing surfaces, surfaces receiving inflow of runon water from upstream zones, and a reference surface with zero runoff and runon. Runoff was calculated to 25%–30% of annual rainfall (which ranged from 488 to 596 mm), from crust observations, rainfall, soil wetness data, and infiltration estimates. Inflow of runon was estimated from field observations to 8%–18% of annual rainfall. The parameters in the functions for soil surface and canopy resistances were calibrated with field measurements of soil evaporation, stomatal conductance and leaf area. The model estimates of soil water contents, which were validated against neutron probe measurements, showed a reasonable agreement with observed data, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of approximately 0.02 m3 m−3 for 0–160 cmsoil depth. Estimated productive water flow as plant transpiration was low, amounting to 4%–9% of the available water for the non-fertilised crop and 7%–24% for the fertilised crop. Soil evaporation accounted for 31%–50% of the available water, and showed a low variation for the observed range of leaf area (LAI <1m2 m−2). Deep percolation was high, amounting to 200–330 mm for the non-crusted surfaces, which exceeded soil evaporation losses, for 1994–95 with relatively high annual rainfall (517–596 mm). Even a year with lower rainfall (488 mm) and a distinct dry spell during flowering (1996), resulted in an estimated deep percolation of 160 mm for the non-fertilised crop. The crop did not benefit from the additional inflow of runon water, which was partitioned between soil water storage and deep percolation. The only exception to this was the fertilised crop in 1996, where runon somewhat compensated for the limited rainfall and the higher water demand as a result of a larger leaf area than the non-fertilised crop.The effects of rainfall erraticness, resulting in episodic droughts, explain why a crop that uses such a small proportion of the available water, in an environment with substantial deep percolation, still suffers from water scarcity. Application of small levels of phosphorus and nitrogen roughly doubled yields, from 380 to 620 kg ha−1, and plant transpiration, from 33 to 78 mm. Evapotranspirational water use efficiency (WUEET) was low, 6500–8300 m3 ton-1 grain for non-fertilised crop,which is an effect of the lowon-farmyields and high non-productive water losses. The estimated seasonal rainfall partitioning indicates the possibility of quantifying vertical water flows in on-farm environments in the Sahel, despite the presence of surface overland flow.