Jennie E. Raymond

Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Markov State-Switching Approach

This paper analyzes the relationship between oil price shocks and postwar U.S. business cycle fluctuations. The authors develop a generalized Markov switching model of output that includes a measure of net real oil price increases and examine the capabilities of this variable to generate shifts in the mean of GDP growth and to predict transitions between dichotomous growth phases. The results indicate that, while the behavior of oil prices has been a contributing factor to the mean of low growth phases of output, movements in oil prices generally have not been a principal determinant in the historical evidence of these phases. Copyright 1997 by Ohio State University Press.

Agency problems and the simultaneity of financial decision making: The role of institutional ownership

Abstract This study investigated the simultaneity of four financial variables that are hypothesized to control agency costs. It builds a model showing that leverage, dividends, insider ownership, and institutional ownership are determined simultaneously as each of the variables is hypothesized to affect agency costs. We found that in 1987, institutional ownership was determined simultaneously with leverage, dividends, and insider ownership, but the coefficients do not support agency hypotheses. However, in 1993, we found a simultaneous system consistent with institutional ownership being a substitute for agency control variables.

Generalized instrumental variables estimation of autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic models

Abstract This paper considers an alternative to maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of the autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (ARCH) model introduced in Engle (1982). Specifically, the analysis demonstrates that Hansens (1982) generalized method of moments (GMM) procedure can be applied for estimation of ARCH models. As an illustration, we compare the results from ML estimation and GMM estimation of Engle and Krafts (1983) ARCH model of U.S. inflation.

Importance of Learning-Driven Constructs on Perceived Skill Development When Using Multimedia Instructional Materials

Researchers disagree on the impact of multimedia on perceived skill development. This research investigated whether intervening variables such as task-technology factors might explain the difference in the research findings. An experiment was conducted where thirty-nine students worked on a case study using both paper-based and multimedia-based technologies. An exploratory factor analysis design employing a structural equation model was utilized to analyze the data. The findings from this study suggest a strong indirect relationship between multimedia and perceived skill development with learning-driven constructs (challenging, learning interest, self-reported learning, and learned from others). The study concludes that it is critical to consider these factors in developing multimedia instructional materials.

Modelling the consumer's decision to replace durable goods: a hazard function approach

This article analysis the consumers durable good replacement decision using hazard models. In contrast to the typical limited dependent variable model often used in durable good demand studies, hazard models allow for much richer replacement. To illustrate the technique, a recursive system consisting of a regression equation and a hazard model is used to examine home heating system replacement decisions by residencial customers of a major southeasten US electric utility. The results indicate that overall system replacement rates decline over time, and that the probability of replacement for specific households depends negatively on the age of the head of household abd the availability of natural gas, and positively on system age and higher than expected household energy use.

Deregulation and productivity changes in banking: evidence from European unification

Over the 1990s European banking markets became increasingly deregulated as European unification progressed. National borders become less relevant, and product line restrictions diminished, increasing competitive pressures on institutions to operate more efficiently. A stochastic frontier cost function is estimated for commercial banks across 15 nations in the European Union (EU) to obtain a better understanding of how banks adapted in this period of rapid change in the competitive environment. It is found that the banking systems in all individual countries became more efficient. Country rankings according to productivity changed little over the sample period, and productivity differences between banking systems narrowed. These results suggest that the policy of reducing restrictions and harmonizing regulations was consistent with promoting banking efficiency across the EU.

Investments in telecommunications infrastructure are not the panacea for least developed countries leapfrogging growth of teledensity

One of the major prerequisites of economic integration in a modern, complex society is the development of sound infrastructure in the telecommunications sector. The establishment of a modern, reliable, and rapidly expanding telecommunications infrastructure contributes considerably to the promotion of a variety of activities of economic expansion (World Bank Telecommunications Sector Reports, 1991). Some researchers have associated the level of a countrys telecommunications infrastructure to teledensity. (Saunders et al, 1994; Gille, 1986).

Testing for measurement errors in expectations from survey data : An instrumental variables approach

Abstract This paper examines the issue of measurement errors in expectations from survey data in the testing of models of expectations formation. We demonstrate that tests for measurement errors can be conducted through a generalized method of moments specification test and apply our estimation strategy to the SRC expected inflation series.