Jennifer A. Gill

Why behavioural responses may not reflect the population consequences of human disturbance

The effect of human disturbance on animals is frequently measured in terms of changes in behaviour in response to human presence. The magnitude of these changes in behaviour is then often used as a measure of the relative susceptibility of species to disturbance; for example species which show strong avoidance of human presence are often considered to be in greater need of protection from disturbance than those which do not. In this paper we discuss whether such changes in behaviour are likely to be good measures of the relative susceptibility of species, and suggest that their use may result in confusion when determining conservation priorities.

Flattening of Caribbean coral reefs: region-wide declines in architectural complexity.

Coral reefs are rich in biodiversity, in large part because their highly complex architecture provides shelter and resources for a wide range of organisms. Recent rapid declines in hard coral cover have occurred across the Caribbean region, but the concomitant consequences for reef architecture have not been quantified on a large scale to date. We provide, to our knowledge, the first region-wide analysis of changes in reef architectural complexity, using nearly 500 surveys across 200 reefs, between 1969 and 2008. The architectural complexity of Caribbean reefs has declined nonlinearly with the near disappearance of the most complex reefs over the last 40 years. The flattening of Caribbean reefs was apparent by the early 1980s, followed by a period of stasis between 1985 and 1998 and then a resumption of the decline in complexity to the present. Rates of loss are similar on shallow (<6 m), mid-water (6–20 m) and deep (>20 m) reefs and are consistent across all five subregions. The temporal pattern of declining architecture coincides with key events in recent Caribbean ecological history: the loss of structurally complex Acropora corals, the mass mortality of the grazing urchin Diadema antillarum and the 1998 El Nino Southern Oscillation-induced worldwide coral bleaching event. The consistently low estimates of current architectural complexity suggest regional-scale degradation and homogenization of reef structure. The widespread loss of architectural complexity is likely to have serious consequences for reef biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and associated environmental services.

The buffer effect and large-scale population regulation in migratory birds.

Buffer effects occur when sites vary in quality and fluctuations in population size are mirrored by large changes in animal numbers in poor-quality sites but only small changes in good-quality sites. Hence, the poor sites ‘buffer’ the good sites, a mechanism that can potentially drive population regulation if there are demographic costs of inhabiting poor sites. Here we show that for a migratory bird this process can apply on a country-wide scale with consequences for both survival and timing of arrival on the breeding grounds (an indicator of reproductive success). The Icelandic population of the black-tailed godwit, Limosa limosa islandica, wintering in Britain has increased fourfold since the 1970s (ref. 5) but rates of change within individual estuaries have varied from zero to sixfold increases. In accordance with the buffer effect, rates of increase are greater on estuaries with low initial numbers, and godwits on these sites have lower prey-intake rates, lower survival rates and arrive later in Iceland than godwits on sites with stable populations. The buffer effect can therefore be a major process influencing large-scale population regulation of migratory species.

A Method to Quantify the Effects of Human Disturbance on Animal Populations

1. The extent and consequences of human disturbance on populations of vertebrates are contentious issues in conservation. As recreational and industrial uses of the countryside continue to expand, it is becoming increasingly important that the effects of such disturbance on wildlife are quantified. 2. This study describes a method of quantifying the effect of disturbance, based on measuring the trade-off between resource use and risk of disturbance. This approach is based on one used by ethologists to study the effects of predation risk on patch use. 3. Pink-footed geese, Anser brachyrhynchus, feeding on arable fields, are highly responsive to disturbance from surrounding roads. The extent to which these fields are exploited declines linearly with increasing risk of disturbance. The reduction in use of these feeding grounds caused by disturbance can be quantified by translating the biomass of food not exploited into the number of birds that this food could have supported. 4. This approach allows both quantification of the impact of disturbance on a population, and exploration of the potential consequences of changes in disturbance on the size of populations.

HURRICANES AND CARIBBEAN CORAL REEFS: IMPACTS, RECOVERY PATTERNS, AND ROLE IN LONG-TERM DECLINE

The decline of corals on tropical reefs is usually ascribed to a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors, but the relative importance of these causes remains unclear. In this paper, we attempt to quantify the contribution of hurricanes to Caribbean coral cover decline over the past two decades using meta-analyses. Our study included published and unpublished data from 286 coral reef sites monitored for variable lengths of time between 1980 and 2001. Of these, 177 sites had experienced hurricane impacts during their period of survey. Across the Caribbean, coral cover is reduced by ∼17%, on average, in the year following a hurricane impact. The magnitude of this immediate loss increases with hurricane intensity and with the time elapsed since the last impact. In the following year, no further loss is discernible, but the decline in cover then resumes on impacted sites at a rate similar to the regional background rate of decline for nonimpacted sites. There is no evidence of recovery to a pre-storm state for at least eight years after impact. Overall, coral cover at sites impacted by a hurricane has declined at a significantly faster rate (6% per annum) than nonimpacted sites (2% per annum), due almost exclusively to higher rates of loss in the year after impact in the 1980s. While hurricanes, through their immediate impacts, appear to have contributed to changing coral cover on many Caribbean reefs in the 1980s, the similar decline in coral cover at impacted and nonimpacted sites in the 1990s suggests that other stressors are now relatively more important in driving the overall pattern of change in coral cover in this region. The overall lack of post-hurricane recovery points to a general impairment of the regeneration potential of Caribbean coral reefs.

ACCELERATING IMPACTS OF TEMPERATURE-INDUCED CORAL BLEACHING IN THE CARIBBEAN

Coral bleaching is a stress-related response that can be triggered by elevated sea surface temperatures (SST). Recent increases in the frequency of coral bleaching have led to concerns that increases in marine temperatures may threaten entire coral reef regions. We report exponential increases in the geographical extent and intensity of coral bleaching in the Caribbean with increasing SST anomalies. A rise in regional SST of 0.1°C results in 35% and 42% increases in the geographic extent and intensity of coral bleaching, respectively. Maximum bleaching extent and intensity are predicted to occur at regional SST anomalies of less than +1°C, which coincides with the most conservative projections for warming in the Caribbean by the end of the 21st century. Coral bleaching is therefore likely to become a chronic source of stress for Caribbean reefs in the near future.

Island-specific preferences of tourists for environmental features: implications of climate change for tourism-dependent states

Climate change may affect important environmental components of holiday destinations, which might have repercussions for tourism-dependent economies. This study documents the importance of environmental attributes in determining the choice and holiday enjoyment of tourists visiting Bonaire and Barbados, two Caribbean islands with markedly different tourism markets and infrastructure. Three hundred and sixteen and 338 participants from Bonaire and Barbados, respectively, completed standardized questionnaires. Warm temperatures, clear waters and low health risks were the most important environmental features determining holiday destination choice. However, tourists in Bonaire thereafter prioritized marine wildlife attributes (i.e. coral and fish diversity and abundance) over other environmental features, whereas tourists in Barbados exhibited stronger preferences for terrestrial features, particularly beach characteristics. The willingness of tourists to revisit these islands was strongly linked to the state of the preferred environmental attributes. More than 80% of tourists in Bonaire and Barbados would be unwilling to return for the same holiday price in the event, respectively, of coral bleaching as a result of elevated sea surface temperatures and reduced beach area as a result of sea level rise. Climate change might have a significant impact on Caribbean tourism economy through alteration of environmental features important to destination selection. Island-specific management strategies, such as focusing resources on the protection of key marine or terrestrial features, may provide a means of reducing the environmental and economic impacts of climate change.

Seasonal matching of habitat quality and fitness in a migratory bird

When species occupy habitats that vary in quality, choice of habitat can be critical in determining individual fitness. In most migratory species, juveniles migrate independently of their parents and must therefore choose both breeding and winter habitats. Using a unique dataset of marked black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa islandica) tracked throughout their migratory range, combined with analyses of stable carbon isotope ratios, we show that those individuals that occupy higher quality breeding sites also use higher quality winter sites. This seasonal matching can severely inflate inequalities in individual fitness. This population has expanded over the last century into poorer quality breeding and winter habitats and, across the whole population; individual birds tend to occupy either novel or traditional sites in both seasons. Winter and breeding season habitat selection are thus strongly linked throughout this population; these links have profound implications for a wide range of population and evolutionary processes. As adult godwits are highly philopatric, the initial choice of winter habitat by juveniles will be critical in determining future survival, timing of migration and breeding success.

Measuring coral reef decline through meta-analyses

Coral reef ecosystems are in decline worldwide, owing to a variety of anthropogenic and natural causes. One of the most obvious signals of reef degradation is a reduction in live coral cover. Past and current rates of loss of coral are known for many individual reefs; however, until recently, no large-scale estimate was available. In this paper, we show how meta-analysis can be used to integrate existing small-scale estimates of change in coral and macroalgal cover, derived from in situ surveys of reefs, to generate a robust assessment of long-term patterns of large-scale ecological change. Using a large dataset from Caribbean reefs, we examine the possible biases inherent in meta-analytical studies and the sensitivity of the method to patchiness in data availability. Despite the fact that our meta-analysis included studies that used a variety of sampling methods, the regional estimate of change in coral cover we obtained is similar to that generated by a standardized survey programme that was implemented in 1991 in the Caribbean. We argue that for habitat types that are regularly and reasonably well surveyed in the course of ecological or conservation research, meta-analysis offers a cost-effective and rapid method for generating robust estimates of past and current states.

Intake rates and the functional response in shorebirds (Charadriiformes) eating macro-invertebrates

As field determinations take much effort, it would be useful to be able to predict easily the coefficients describing the functional response of free‐living predators, the function relating food intake rate to the abundance of food organisms in the environment. As a means easily to parameterise an individual‐based model of shorebird Charadriiformes populations, we attempted this for shorebirds eating macro‐invertebrates. Intake rate is measured as the ash‐free dry mass (AFDM) per second of active foraging; i.e. excluding time spent on digestive pauses and other activities, such as preening. The present and previous studies show that the general shape of the functional response in shorebirds eating approximately the same size of prey across the full range of prey density is a decelerating rise to a plateau, thus approximating the Holling type II (‘disc equation’) formulation. But field studies confirmed that the asymptote was not set by handling time, as assumed by the disc equation, because only about half the foraging time was spent in successfully or unsuccessfully attacking and handling prey, the rest being devoted to searching.