Jennifer E. Ho

Risk of incident diabetes with intensive-dose compared with moderate-dose statin therapy: a meta-analysis.

CONTEXT A recent meta-analysis demonstrated that statin therapy is associated with excess risk of developing diabetes mellitus. OBJECTIVE To investigate whether intensive-dose statin therapy is associated with increased risk of new-onset diabetes compared with moderate-dose statin therapy. DATA SOURCES We identified relevant trials in a literature search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (January 1, 1996, through March 31, 2011). Unpublished data were obtained from investigators. STUDY SELECTION We included randomized controlled end-point trials that compared intensive-dose statin therapy with moderate-dose statin therapy and included more than 1000 participants who were followed up for more than 1 year. DATA EXTRACTION Tabular data provided for each trial described baseline characteristics and numbers of participants developing diabetes and experiencing major cardiovascular events (cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction or stroke, coronary revascularization). We calculated trial-specific odds ratios (ORs) for new-onset diabetes and major cardiovascular events and combined these using random-effects model meta-analysis. Between-study heterogeneity was assessed using the I(2) statistic. RESULTS In 5 statin trials with 32,752 participants without diabetes at baseline, 2749 developed diabetes (1449 assigned intensive-dose therapy, 1300 assigned moderate-dose therapy, representing 2.0 additional cases in the intensive-dose group per 1000 patient-years) and 6684 experienced cardiovascular events (3134 and 3550, respectively, representing 6.5 fewer cases in the intensive-dose group per 1000 patient-years) over a weighted mean (SD) follow-up of 4.9 (1.9) years. Odds ratios were 1.12 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.22; I(2) = 0%) for new-onset diabetes and 0.84 (95% CI, 0.75-0.94; I(2) = 74%) for cardiovascular events for participants receiving intensive therapy compared with moderate-dose therapy. As compared with moderate-dose statin therapy, the number needed to harm per year for intensive-dose statin therapy was 498 for new-onset diabetes while the number needed to treat per year for intensive-dose statin therapy was 155 for cardiovascular events. CONCLUSION In a pooled analysis of data from 5 statin trials, intensive-dose statin therapy was associated with an increased risk of new-onset diabetes compared with moderate-dose statin therapy.

Galectin-3, a marker of cardiac fibrosis, predicts incident heart failure in the community.

OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to examine the relation of galectin-3 (Gal-3), a marker of cardiac fibrosis, with incident heart failure (HF) in the community. BACKGROUND Gal-3 is an emerging prognostic biomarker in HF, and experimental studies suggest that Gal-3 is an important mediator of cardiac fibrosis. Whether elevated Gal-3 concentrations precede the development of HF is unknown. METHODS Gal-3 concentrations were measured in 3,353 participants in the Framingham Offspring Cohort (mean age 59 years; 53% women). The relation of Gal-3 to incident HF was assessed using proportional hazards regression. RESULTS Gal-3 was associated with increased left ventricular mass in age-adjusted and sex-adjusted analyses (p = 0.001); this association was attenuated in multivariate analyses (p = 0.06). A total of 166 participants developed incident HF and 468 died during a mean follow-up period of 11.2 years. Gal-3 was associated with risk for incident HF (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.28 per 1 SD increase in log Gal-3; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.14 to 1.43; p < 0.0001) and remained significant after adjustment for clinical variables and B-type natriuretic peptide (HR: 1.23; 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.47; p = 0.02). Gal-3 was also associated with risk for all-cause mortality (multivariable-adjusted HR: 1.15; 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.28; p = 0.01). The addition of Gal-3 to clinical factors resulted in negligible changes to the C-statistic and minor improvements in net reclassification improvement. CONCLUSIONS Higher concentration of Gal-3, a marker of cardiac fibrosis, is associated with increased risk for incident HF and mortality. Future studies evaluating the role of Gal-3 in cardiac remodeling may provide further insights into the role of Gal-3 in the pathophysiology of HF.

Prognostic Utility of Novel Biomarkers of Cardiovascular Stress The Framingham Heart Study

Background— Biomarkers for predicting cardiovascular events in community-based populations have not consistently added information to standard risk factors. A limitation of many previously studied biomarkers is their lack of cardiovascular specificity. Methods and Results— To determine the prognostic value of 3 novel biomarkers induced by cardiovascular stress, we measured soluble ST2, growth differentiation factor-15, and high-sensitivity troponin I in 3428 participants (mean age, 59 years; 53% women) in the Framingham Heart Study. We performed multivariable-adjusted proportional hazards models to assess the individual and combined ability of the biomarkers to predict adverse outcomes. We also constructed a “multimarker” score composed of the 3 biomarkers in addition to B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. During a mean follow-up of 11.3 years, there were 488 deaths, 336 major cardiovascular events, 162 heart failure events, and 142 coronary events. In multivariable-adjusted models, the 3 new biomarkers were associated with each end point (P<0.001) except coronary events. Individuals with multimarker scores in the highest quartile had a 3-fold risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.2; 95% confidence interval, 2.2–4.7; P<0.001), 6-fold risk of heart failure (6.2; 95% confidence interval, 2.6–14.8; P<0.001), and 2-fold risk of cardiovascular events (1.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.3–2.7; P=0.001). Addition of the multimarker score to clinical variables led to significant increases in the c statistic (P=0.005 or lower) and net reclassification improvement (P=0.001 or lower). Conclusion— Multiple biomarkers of cardiovascular stress are detectable in ambulatory individuals and add prognostic value to standard risk factors for predicting death, overall cardiovascular events, and heart failure.

Predictors of New-Onset Diabetes in Patients Treated With Atorvastatin Results From 3 Large Randomized Clinical Trials

OBJECTIVES We sought to examine the incidence and clinical predictors of new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) within 3 large randomized trials with atorvastatin. BACKGROUND Statin therapy might modestly increase the risk of new-onset T2DM. METHODS We used a standard definition of diabetes and excluded patients with prevalent diabetes at baseline. We identified baseline predictors of new-onset T2DM and compared the event rates in patients with and without new-onset T2DM. RESULTS In the TNT (Treating to New Targets) trial, 351 of 3,798 patients randomized to 80 mg of atorvastatin and 308 of 3,797 randomized to 10 mg developed new-onset T2DM (9.24% vs. 8.11%, adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.94 to 1.29, p = 0.226). In the IDEAL (Incremental Decrease in End Points Through Aggressive Lipid Lowering) trial, 239 of 3,737 patients randomized to atorvastatin 80 mg/day and 208 of 3,724 patients randomized to simvastatin 20 mg/day developed new-onset T2DM (6.40% vs. 5.59%, adjusted HR: 1.19, 95% CI: 0.98 to 1.43, p = 0.072). In the SPARCL (Stroke Prevention by Aggressive Reduction in Cholesterol Levels) trial, new-onset T2DM developed in 166 of 1,905 patients randomized to atorvastatin 80 mg/day and in 115 of 1,898 patients in the placebo group (8.71% vs. 6.06%, adjusted HR: 1.37, 95% CI: 1.08 to 1.75, p = 0.011). In each of the 3 trials, baseline fasting blood glucose, body mass index, hypertension, and fasting triglycerides were independent predictors of new-onset T2DM. Across the 3 trials, major cardiovascular events occurred in 11.3% of patients with and 10.8% of patients without new-onset T2DM (adjusted HR: 1.02, 95% CI: 0.77 to 1.35, p = 0.69). CONCLUSIONS High-dose atorvastatin treatment compared with placebo in the SPARCL trial is associated with a slightly increased risk of new-onset T2DM. Baseline fasting glucose level and features of the metabolic syndrome are predictive of new-onset T2DM across the 3 trials.

Clinical ResearchLipid-Lowering and DiabetesPredictors of New-Onset Diabetes in Patients Treated With Atorvastatin: Results From 3 Large Randomized Clinical Trials

OBJECTIVES We sought to examine the incidence and clinical predictors of new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) within 3 large randomized trials with atorvastatin. BACKGROUND Statin therapy might modestly increase the risk of new-onset T2DM. METHODS We used a standard definition of diabetes and excluded patients with prevalent diabetes at baseline. We identified baseline predictors of new-onset T2DM and compared the event rates in patients with and without new-onset T2DM. RESULTS In the TNT (Treating to New Targets) trial, 351 of 3,798 patients randomized to 80 mg of atorvastatin and 308 of 3,797 randomized to 10 mg developed new-onset T2DM (9.24% vs. 8.11%, adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.94 to 1.29, p = 0.226). In the IDEAL (Incremental Decrease in End Points Through Aggressive Lipid Lowering) trial, 239 of 3,737 patients randomized to atorvastatin 80 mg/day and 208 of 3,724 patients randomized to simvastatin 20 mg/day developed new-onset T2DM (6.40% vs. 5.59%, adjusted HR: 1.19, 95% CI: 0.98 to 1.43, p = 0.072). In the SPARCL (Stroke Prevention by Aggressive Reduction in Cholesterol Levels) trial, new-onset T2DM developed in 166 of 1,905 patients randomized to atorvastatin 80 mg/day and in 115 of 1,898 patients in the placebo group (8.71% vs. 6.06%, adjusted HR: 1.37, 95% CI: 1.08 to 1.75, p = 0.011). In each of the 3 trials, baseline fasting blood glucose, body mass index, hypertension, and fasting triglycerides were independent predictors of new-onset T2DM. Across the 3 trials, major cardiovascular events occurred in 11.3% of patients with and 10.8% of patients without new-onset T2DM (adjusted HR: 1.02, 95% CI: 0.77 to 1.35, p = 0.69). CONCLUSIONS High-dose atorvastatin treatment compared with placebo in the SPARCL trial is associated with a slightly increased risk of new-onset T2DM. Baseline fasting glucose level and features of the metabolic syndrome are predictive of new-onset T2DM across the 3 trials.

Cardiac Dysfunction and Noncardiac Dysfunction as Precursors of Heart Failure With Reduced and Preserved Ejection Fraction in the Community

Background— Heart failure (HF) is a clinical syndrome characterized by signs and symptoms involving multiple organ systems. Longitudinal data demonstrating that asymptomatic cardiac dysfunction precedes overt HF are scarce, and the contribution of noncardiac dysfunction to HF progression is unclear. We hypothesized that subclinical cardiac and noncardiac organ dysfunction would accelerate the manifestation of HF. Methods and Results— We studied 1038 participants of the Framingham Heart Study original cohort (mean age, 76±5 years; 39% men) with routine assessment of left ventricular systolic and diastolic function. Major noncardiac organ systems were assessed with the use of serum creatinine (renal), serum albumin (hepatic), ratio of forced expiratory volume in 1 second to forced vital capacity (FEV1:FVC ratio; pulmonary), hemoglobin concentration (hematologic/oxygen-carrying capacity), and white blood cell count (systemic inflammation). On follow-up (mean, 11 years), there were 248 incident HF events (146 in women). After adjustment for established HF risk factors, antecedent left ventricular systolic dysfunction (hazard ratio, 2.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.43 to 3.78) and diastolic dysfunction (hazard ratio, 1.32; 95% confidence interval, 1.01 to 1.71) were associated with increased HF risk. After adjustment for cardiac dysfunction, higher serum creatinine, lower FEV1:FVC ratios, and lower hemoglobin concentrations were associated with increased HF risk (all P<0.05); serum albumin and white blood cell count were not. Subclinical dysfunction in each noncardiac organ system was associated with a 30% increased risk of HF (P=0.013). Conclusions— Antecedent cardiac dysfunction and noncardiac organ dysfunction are associated with increased incidence of HF, supporting the notion that HF is a progressive syndrome and underscoring the importance of noncardiac factors in its occurrence.

2-Aminoadipic acid is a biomarker for diabetes risk

Improvements in metabolite-profiling techniques are providing increased breadth of coverage of the human metabolome and may highlight biomarkers and pathways in common diseases such as diabetes. Using a metabolomics platform that analyzes intermediary organic acids, purines, pyrimidines, and other compounds, we performed a nested case-control study of 188 individuals who developed diabetes and 188 propensity-matched controls from 2,422 normoglycemic participants followed for 12 years in the Framingham Heart Study. The metabolite 2-aminoadipic acid (2-AAA) was most strongly associated with the risk of developing diabetes. Individuals with 2-AAA concentrations in the top quartile had greater than a 4-fold risk of developing diabetes. Levels of 2-AAA were not well correlated with other metabolite biomarkers of diabetes, such as branched chain amino acids and aromatic amino acids, suggesting they report on a distinct pathophysiological pathway. In experimental studies, administration of 2-AAA lowered fasting plasma glucose levels in mice fed both standard chow and high-fat diets. Further, 2-AAA treatment enhanced insulin secretion from a pancreatic β cell line as well as murine and human islets. These data highlight a metabolite not previously associated with diabetes risk that is increased up to 12 years before the onset of overt disease. Our findings suggest that 2-AAA is a marker of diabetes risk and a potential modulator of glucose homeostasis in humans.

Predictors of New-Onset Heart Failure: Differences in Preserved Versus Reduced Ejection Fraction

Background— About one half of patients with heart failure (HF) have preserved ejection fraction (HFPEF) rather than reduced ejection fraction (HFREF). The differences in risk factors predisposing to the 2 subtypes of HF are poorly understood. We sought to identify clinical predictors of new-onset HF and to explore differences in HFPEF versus HFREF. Methods and Results— We studied new-onset HF cases between 1981 and 2008 in Framingham Heart Study participants, classified into HFPEF and HFREF (ejection fraction >45% versus ≤45%). We used Cox multivariable regression to examine predictors of 8-year risk of incident HF and competing-risks analysis to identify predictors that differed between HFPEF and HFREF. Among 6340 participants (60±12 years) with 97 808 person-years of follow-up, 512 developed incident HF. Of 457 participants with left ventricular ejection fraction evaluation at the time of HF diagnosis, 196 (43%) were classified as HFPEF and 261 (56%) as HFREF. Fourteen predictors of overall HF were identified. Older age, diabetes mellitus, and a history of valvular disease predicted both types of HF ( P ≤0.0025 for all). Higher body mass index, smoking, and atrial fibrillation predicted HFPEF only, whereas male sex, higher total cholesterol, higher heart rate, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, left ventricular hypertrophy, and left bundle-branch block predicted risk of HFREF. Conclusions— Although multiple risk factors preceded overall HF, distinct clusters of risk factors determine risk for new-onset HFPEF versus HFREF. This knowledge may enable the design of clinical trials of targeted prevention and the introduction of therapeutic strategies for prevention of HF and its 2 major subtypes.Background—About one half of patients with heart failure (HF) have preserved ejection fraction (HFPEF) rather than reduced ejection fraction (HFREF). The differences in risk factors predisposing to the 2 subtypes of HF are poorly understood. We sought to identify clinical predictors of new-onset HF and to explore differences in HFPEF versus HFREF. Methods and Results—We studied new-onset HF cases between 1981 and 2008 in Framingham Heart Study participants, classified into HFPEF and HFREF (ejection fraction >45% versus ⩽45%). We used Cox multivariable regression to examine predictors of 8-year risk of incident HF and competing-risks analysis to identify predictors that differed between HFPEF and HFREF. Among 6340 participants (60±12 years) with 97 808 person-years of follow-up, 512 developed incident HF. Of 457 participants with left ventricular ejection fraction evaluation at the time of HF diagnosis, 196 (43%) were classified as HFPEF and 261 (56%) as HFREF. Fourteen predictors of overall HF were identified. Older age, diabetes mellitus, and a history of valvular disease predicted both types of HF (P⩽0.0025 for all). Higher body mass index, smoking, and atrial fibrillation predicted HFPEF only, whereas male sex, higher total cholesterol, higher heart rate, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, left ventricular hypertrophy, and left bundle-branch block predicted risk of HFREF. Conclusions—Although multiple risk factors preceded overall HF, distinct clusters of risk factors determine risk for new-onset HFPEF versus HFREF. This knowledge may enable the design of clinical trials of targeted prevention and the introduction of therapeutic strategies for prevention of HF and its 2 major subtypes.

Association of Abacavir and Impaired Endothelial Function in Treated and Suppressed HIV-Infected Patients

Background:HIV-infected patients have accelerated atherosclerosis. Abacavir has been associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events, for reasons that remain to be elucidated. As endothelial dysfunction is central to the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis, we tested the hypothesis that current treatment with abacavir is associated with impaired endothelial function. Methods:We studied a cohort of 61 antiretroviral-treated patients who had undetectable plasma HIV RNA levels. Endothelial function was assessed by measuring flow-mediated dilation (FMD) of the brachial artery. We compared FMD in patients treated with or without abacavir, while adjusting for traditional risk factors and HIV-specific characteristics. Results:The median age was 50 years (interquartile range 45–57). The median duration of HIV infection was 18 years, and the median CD4 cell count was 369 cells/μl. Thirty patients (49%) were receiving abacavir. Overall, the median FMD in the HIV-infected patients was low (3.5%; interquartile range 2.3–5.6%). The FMD was lower in the abacavir-treated patients than those not on abacavir (2.8 vs. 4.9%, P = 0.01). After adjustment for traditional risk factors, HIV-specific factors, and baseline brachial artery diameter, current abacavir use was independently associated with lower FMD (P = 0.017). Duration of therapy and CD4 cell count were not associated with reduced FMD. Conclusion:Endothelial function, a central mechanism in atherosclerosis and a marker of cardiovascular risk, is impaired among antiretroviral-treated patients with undetectable viral loads. Current use of abacavir was independently associated with impaired endothelial function. This finding suggests that abnormal endothelial function may underlie the clinically observed increased risk in myocardial infarction among abacavir-treated patients.

Cardiovascular Event Reduction Versus New-Onset Diabetes During Atorvastatin Therapy: Effect of Baseline Risk Factors for Diabetes

OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study was to compare the incidence of new-onset diabetes (NOD) with cardiovascular (CV) event reduction at different levels of NOD risk. BACKGROUND Statins reduce the number of CV events but increase the incidence of NOD. We previously reported that 4 factors independently predicted NOD: fasting blood glucose >100 mg/dl, fasting triglycerides >150 mg/dl, body mass index >30 kg/m(2), and history of hypertension. METHODS We compared NOD incidence with CV event reduction among 15,056 patients with coronary disease but without diabetes at baseline in the TNT (Treating to New Targets) (n = 7,595) and IDEAL (Incremental Decrease in Endpoints Through Aggressive Lipid Lowering) (n = 7,461) trials. CV events included coronary heart disease death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and resuscitated cardiac arrest. RESULTS Among 8,825 patients with 0 to 1 of the aforementioned NOD risk factors at baseline, NOD developed in 142 of 4,407 patients in the atorvastatin 80 mg group and in 148 of 4,418 in the atorvastatin 10 mg and simvastatin 20 to 40 mg groups (3.22% vs. 3.35%; hazard ratio [HR]: 0.97; 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.77 to 1.22). Among the remaining 6,231 patients with 2 to 4 NOD risk factors, NOD developed in 448 of 3,128 in the atorvastatin 80 mg group and in 368 of 3,103 in the lower-dose groups (14.3% vs. 11.9%; HR: 1.24; 95% CI: 1.08 to 1.42; p = 0.0027). The number of CV events was significantly reduced with atorvastatin 80 mg in both NOD risk groups. CONCLUSIONS Compared with lower-dose statin therapy, atorvastatin 80 mg/day did not increase the incidence of NOD in patients with 0 to 1 NOD risk factors but did, by 24%, among patients with 2 to 4 NOD risk factors. The number of CV events was significantly reduced with atorvastatin 80 mg in both NOD risk groups.