Jennifer G. Winter

PHOSPHORUS INPUTS TO LAKE SIMCOE FROM 1990 TO 2003: DECLINES IN TRIBUTARY LOADS AND OBSERVATIONS ON LAKE WATER QUALITY

ABSTRACT Total phosphorus (TP) inputs to Lake Simcoe have led to hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen (DO) depletion and loss of cold water fish habitat. Since 1990, efforts have been made to reduce the total TP input to the lake below a defined target of 75 t/year, which was predicted to lead to reductions in spring TP concentration and improvements in end-of-summer hypolimnetic DO concentrations. The total TP load to the lake during the most recent period of record (1998/99–2003/04) ranged from 53 to 76 t/yr and averaged 67 t/yr, compared to an average of 114 t/yr estimated between 1990/91 and 1997/98 (range 85–157 t/yr). Reductions in TP loads from the catchment via tributary discharge (~26 t) accounted for the majority of the decrease in total load between the two time periods. Total P concentrations decreased significantly in four out of six long-term monitored tributaries; however, concentrations in all six tributaries remain above the level recommended to avoid nuisance plant growth (30 μg/L). Although TP loads to the lake are currently below the target 75 t/yr, excessive growths of filamentous algae and macrophytes continue to be a problem in the nearshore zone. End-of-summer minimum hypolimnetic DO concentrations (average 4.3 mg/L, 1998/99–2003/04) remain substantially below the level (7 mg/L) that is considered protective of lake trout. Efforts to reduce TP loads to the lake therefore need to continue.

Algal blooms in Ontario, Canada: Increases in reports since 1994

Abstract The Ontario Ministry of the Environment provides an algal identification service as part of the Ministrys response to algal bloom events, and we have been tracking the reports since 1994. From 1994 through 2009, we noted a significant increase in the number of algal blooms reported each year (P < 0.001). There was also an increase in the number of blooms in which cyanobacteria were dominant (P < 0.001), with these samples making up >50% of the total during peak years. The most common taxa of cyanobacteria identified were Anabaena, Aphanizomenon, Microcystis, Gloeotrichia, and various Oscillatoriales. The remaining samples were dominated by filamentous green algae, or occasionally by chrysophytes. We also noted geographic and seasonal trends in the bloom reports. Most of the increase in the number of cyanobacterial bloom reports was accounted for from lakes on the Canadian Shield (located within the boundary of the Ministrys Northern Region). Algal blooms are now being reported later into the fall than they were during the 1990s; bloom reports have extended well into November in recent years. We attributed these trends to (1) increased nutrient inputs in some areas, which promote the growth of algae; (2) factors associated with climate warming, which may exacerbate bloom conditions; and (3) an increase in public awareness of algal issues. An increase in algal bloom reports is a management issue in Ontario, and blooms of potentially toxin-producing cyanobacteria prompted a formal response protocol to be followed.

Total Phosphorus Budgets and Nitrogen Loads: Lake Simcoe, Ontario (1990 to 1998)

Prompted by concerns over eutrophication, the total phosphorus (TP) budgets of Lake Simcoe were measured from 1990 to 1998. Total nitrogen (TN) loads from a portion of the catchment and from atmospheric deposition were also measured. Mean concentrations of TP and TN over the study period were highest in rivers draining subcatchments with the highest proportions of vegetable polders and urban development, and lowest in those draining a higher proportion of forest and scrubland. The mean annual exports of TP and TN measured were highest from vegetable polders (109 and 2,540 kg/km2/yr respectively). High TP export (65 kg/km2/yr) was also measured from the subcatchment with the highest proportion of urban land. Export from mixed agricultural subcatchments ranged from 11 to 27 kg/km2/yr for TP and 220 to 790 kg/km2/yr for TN, while export from catchments with a high proportion of forest and scrubland ranged from 6 to 7 kg/km2/yr for TP and 170 to 270 kg/km2/yr for TN. Mean (1995 to 1998) atmospheric deposition directly to the lake was 56 kg/km2/yr for TP and 920 kg/km2/yr for TN. The largest sources in annual TP budgets were atmospheric deposition (23 to 56%), the tributaries (17 to 49%) and urban non-point sources (9 to 22%). Overall the annual load of TP to the lake ranged from 85 to 157 t over the study period, remaining well above a 75 t/yr target, and concentrations of TN and TP in tributaries draining agricultural and urban areas were above recommended levels. Continued efforts are thus required to reduce nutrient inputs to Lake Simcoe from non-point sources.

Effects of thermocline deepening on lake plankton communities

Theory predicts, and some evidence demonstrates that in lakes, the depth of the thermocline can have a large structural influence on the spatial distribution, and strongly influences the composition of plankton communities. However, experimental assessments of responses of the planktonic food web to thermocline depth have not yet been done at the whole-basin scale. We conducted an experiment wherein we artificially lowered the thermocline in an isolated basin of a three-basin lake, maintaining another isolated basin as a control. The vertical distribution and taxonomic composition of both phytoplankton and zooplankton were monitored throughout the summer months. Greater phytoplankton production, especially in the epilimnion, attributable mainly to increases in the chlorophytes was observed with thermocline deepening, but at the deepest thermoclines, production was limited. Total zooplankton biomass was unaffected by thermocline depth, suggesting top-down control by predators. Zooplankton biomass peaks were less pronounced in the manipulated basin, but tended to follow the thermocline whether at its normal position or as it was deepened. Zooplankton composition was sig- nificantly altered by large increases in densities of predatory cyclopoid copepods and rotifers; taxa commonly found in tur- bulent environments. Overall, both phytoplankton and zooplankton communities demonstrated important shifts in structure and composition in response to thermocline deepening.

Phosphorus retention in a mesotrophic lake under transient loading conditions: insights from a sediment phosphorus binding form study.

Phosphorus retention in sediments has been estimated for three basins in Lake Simcoe, a mesotrophic lake in Ontario, Canada. Total phosphorous (TP) fractionation was used to examine the concentration of phosphorus (P) binding forms in the sediments of Cooks Bay, Kempenfelt Bay, and the Main Basin. The extended sequential extractions allowed us to differentiate between organic-, inorganic-, carbonate-bounded and redox-sensitive phosphorus. Our results showed different mechanisms of P release in each of the three investigated basins, which may be linked to their distinct loading histories, present land-uses and morphology of the sampling sites. In the deep Main Basin, where moderate changes in P loading have been induced by deforestation, sediments are not an important long-term source of diagenetically mobile P, as almost 75% of P is released within a short time scale. P release is predominantly generated by a continuous epilimnetic P flux, rather than a large inventory of temporary P stored in the sediments. Diagenesis in the upper sediment layers is fast enough to prevent a large accumulation of temporary P. In the much deeper glacially formed Kempenfelt Bay with a highly urbanized catchment, P release from the sediments is dominated by the redox-sensitive P fraction, representing up to 40% and 57% of long- and short-term sediment P release, respectively. In the shallow and agriculturally-impacted Cooks Bay, the main P binding form that can be mobilized through diagenesis is carbonate-bound P. This fraction contributes 40.1% and 37.6% to the long- and short-term P sediment release, respectively. Although different mechanisms of P release have been revealed for the three basins in Lake Simcoe, the vertical profiles indicate that the sediments throughout the system are still able to bind deposited P.

The state of Lake Simcoe (Ontario, Canada): the effects of multiple stressors on phosphorus and oxygen dynamics

Abstract Lake Simcoe, the largest lake in southern Ontario outside of the Laurentian Great Lakes, is affected by numerous stressors including eutrophication resulting from total phosphorus (TP) loading, climate change, and invasions of exotic species. We synthesized the long-term responses of Lake Simcoe to these stressors by assessing trends in water quality and biological composition over multiple trophic levels. Evidence for climate change included increasing thermal stability of the lake and changes in subfossil diatom communities over time. Although the deep water dissolved oxygen (O2) minimum has increased significantly since TP load reductions, it is still below estimated historical values and the Lake Simcoe Protection Plan end-of-summer target level of 7 mg O2 L-1. Low deep water O2 concentrations corresponded with a decline in coldwater fish abundance. Since 1980, some nutrient concentrations have decreased (spring TP) while others have increased (silica), but many show no obvious changes (ice-free TP, nitrate, ammonium). Increases in water clarity, combined with declines in chlorophyll a and phytoplankton biovolumes in Cook’s Bay, were temporally consistent with declines in TP loading and the lake-wide establishment of dreissenid mussels as a major component of the Lake Simcoe ecosystem. Using an investigative tool, we identified 2 periods when abrupt shifts potentially occurred in multiple parameters: 1986 and 1995-1997. Additional ecosystem level changes such as declines in zooplankton, declines in offshore benthic invertebrate abundance, and increased nearshore invertebrate abundance likely reflect the effects of invasive species. The interaction of these multiple stressors have significantly altered the Lake Simcoe ecosystem.

Using diatoms to monitor stream biological integrity in Eastern Canada: An overview of 10 years of index development and ongoing challenges.

An improved version of the Eastern Canadian Diatom Index (IDEC: Indice Diatomées de lEst du Canada) was developed, incorporating modifications to optimize diatom-based monitoring in Eastern Canada. The most significant improvement with this version of the IDEC is the extended coverage area including additional reference sites. This new version of the IDEC also incorporated a simplified list of diatom taxa to reduce the variability among analysts as it gains in popularity. Rare taxa (<2%) were excluded and various morphotypes were grouped. The index was created based on three sub-indices that were adapted to cover the range of natural pH and conductivity values allowing us to partial out the strong influence of natural pH and conductivity from the general pollution gradient. The index was created using 648 diatom assemblages including those from nearly 150 reference (or least-disturbed) sites. The reference sites covered a large range of natural characteristics. The diatom assemblages collected in these environments constitute biotype class A in each sub-index and represent a realistic goal for restoration. Associated total phosphorus and total nitrogen showed that class A generally reflects conditions that are considered oligotrophic (<0.025 mg L(-1)) or oligo-mesotrophic, while class D at the opposite end of the pollution gradient reflects eutrophic or hyper-eutrophic environments. There is a good correspondence between IDEC values and nutrient criteria, water quality indices based on physico-chemistry measurements, the presence of agricultural activities, and urban areas. The IDEC has a great potential to assist water quality monitoring, particularly when the objective is to assess the trophic status of a watercourse.

Continuous Bayesian network for studying the causal links between phosphorus loading and plankton patterns in Lake Simcoe, Ontario, Canada.

An ecosystem perspective to restoring beneficial uses in Areas of Concern can be interpreted as a shift from the traditional elucidation of simple cause-effect relationships to a multicausal way of thinking that more effectively accommodates ecosystem complexity. This holistic management paradigm has also pervaded the contemporary ecological modeling practice, making compelling the adoption of more sophisticated ecosystem modeling tools. In this study, our primary objective is to develop a Bayesian hierarchical network of simple ecological models for Lake Simcoe, Ontario, Canada, aiming to establish a realistic representation of the causal connections among exogenous nutrient loading, ambient nutrient conditions, and epilimnetic plankton dynamics. In particular, we used a spatially explicit simple mass-balance model forced with idealized sinusoidal loading to predict total phosphorus concentrations. A structural equation model was then used to delineate the interplay among nutrients, ambient light conditions, phytoplankton, and herbivorous biomass. Our analysis highlights the strength of the causal linkages between total phosphorus and water clarity with phytoplankton as well as the capacity of zooplankton grazing to modulate the algal standing crop. Our Bayesian network is also used to examine the exceedance frequency of threshold values for total phosphorus (15 μg/L) and chlorophyll a (4 μg/L) concentrations under scenarios of phosphorus loading reduction. Our study suggests that a 15% phosphorus loading decrease will still result in >25% violations of the 4 μg chla/L value in the two embayments of Lake Simcoe (Cooks Bay and Kempenfelt Bay). The TP levels will decrease in response to the exogenous loading reductions and this improvement will be primarily manifested in the northcentral segments of the system.

Forecasting cyanobacteria dominance in Canadian temperate lakes

Predictive models based on broad scale, spatial surveys typically identify nutrients and climate as the most important predictors of cyanobacteria abundance; however these models generally have low predictive power because at smaller geographic scales numerous other factors may be equally or more important. At the lake level, for example, the ability to forecast cyanobacteria dominance is of tremendous value to lake managers as they can use such models to communicate exposure risks associated with recreational and drinking water use, and possible exposure to algal toxins, in advance of bloom occurrence. We used detailed algal, limnological and meteorological data from two temperate lakes in south-central Ontario, Canada to determine the factors that are closely linked to cyanobacteria dominance, and to develop easy to use models to forecast cyanobacteria biovolume. For Brandy Lake (BL), the strongest and most parsimonious model for forecasting % cyanobacteria biovolume (% CB) included water column stability, hypolimnetic TP, and % cyanobacteria biovolume two weeks prior. For Three Mile Lake (TML), the best model for forecasting % CB included water column stability, hypolimnetic TP concentration, and 7-d mean wind speed. The models for forecasting % CB in BL and TML are fundamentally different in their lag periods (BL = lag 1 model and TML = lag 2 model) and in some predictor variables despite the close proximity of the study lakes. We speculate that three main factors (nutrient concentrations, water transparency and lake morphometry) may have contributed to differences in the models developed, and may account for variation observed in models derived from large spatial surveys. Our results illustrate that while forecast models can be developed to determine when cyanobacteria will dominate within two temperate lakes, the models require detailed, lake-specific calibration to be effective as risk-management tools.

Nutrient indicators of agricultural impacts in the tributaries of a large lake

Abstract Lake Simcoe in Ontario, Canada, is a large lake surrounded by a mix of urban, agricultural, and less developed areas and is showing adverse effects from excess nutrient inputs, including low hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations. Knowledge of both the quantity and quality of nutrients and seston entering the lake is important because large reductions in phosphorus (P) loads have been proposed to help restore the lake and its coldwater fishery. We examined land use effects on P quality (i.e., bioavailability) and its relationship to seston in the tributaries of Lake Simcoe. Indicators of agricultural impacts were examined in 13 tributaries of Lake Simcoe, which were selected to represent a range of land use types. Bioavailability of P was assessed through analysis of different forms of P and stoichiometric indicators of nutrient status in seston. Nutrient sources were examined using the δ15N of seston. The percentage of cropland in the subwatershed had a strong relationship with P as reflected in higher soluble reactive P concentrations and lower indicators of P deficiency. Cropland land use effects were complicated; they contributed highly bioavailable P to a P deficient lake, and at the same time, contributed high seston loads causing turbidity, resulting in light deficiency. In the Lake Simcoe watershed, animal manure application on cropland could be a source of nutrients related to the δ15N variability and, correspondingly, bioavailable P. Management efforts should therefore include best management practices to reduce manure application to croplands and to prevent runoff from areas where manure is stored.