Jennifer M. Fitchett

Plant phenology and climate change Progress in methodological approaches and application

Phenology, the timing of annually recurrent reproductive biological events, provides a critical signal of climate variability and change effects on plants. Considerable work over the past five decades has quantified the extent to which plant phenophases are responding to local changes in temperature and rainfall. Originally undertaken through the analysis of ground-based phenological observations, the discipline has more recently included phenophase indicators from satellite images and digital repeat photography. With research advances it has become evident that the responses of plant phenology to climate variability and change are both location- and species-specific. The extent to which plants are affected by changes in temperature and rainfall, their intrinsic adaptation capacity, will ultimately determine the potential for sustained ecological stability and food security. We review methodological approaches to plant phenological-climate change over time, analyse the regions and phenophases for which climate variability demonstrates a clear causal role, and finally reflect on the applications of phenological climate change investigations in broader biogeographical contexts.

Holocene climatic variability indicated by a multi-proxy record from southern Africa’s highest wetland

The eastern Lesotho Highlands experience climate patterns distinct from those of surrounding lower altitude regions, representing a niche environment with a unique biodiversity, leading to well-adapted but restricted vegetation. This study explores changes in the Holocene composition of diatoms and pollen at southern Africa’s highest altitude wetland (Mafadi: 3390 m a.s.l.). The palaeoenvironmental record for Mafadi Wetland indicates fluctuations between cold, wet conditions, prevalent between ~8140 and 7580 cal. yr BP and between ~5500 and 1100 cal. yr BP, and warmer, drier periods between ~7520 and 6680 cal. yr BP and between ~6160 and 5700 cal. yr BP. Marked climatic variability is noted from ~1100 cal. yr BP with colder conditions at ~150 kyr BP. Notably, the first of these cold periods occurs soon after the Northern Hemisphere 8.2 kyr event, while a second period of notably cold conditions occurs around 1100 cal. yr BP. Variability exists between the moisture reconstructions presented in this study and those from adjacent lower altitude sites, which is hypothesised to reflect variations in the strength and extent of the Westerlies throughout the Holocene.

Tourism and climate change: a review of threats and adaptation strategies for Africa

The intersection of tourism and climate change has seen significant research over the past two decades, focusing particularly on issues of mitigation and adaptation in the global North. Research output has predominantly been centred on the Mediterranean and Nordic countries and number of localities in North America. The global South has seen significantly less investigation, despite having significantly lower adaptive capacity to the impacts of climate change, and numerous countries with rapidly growing tourism sectors. The African continent specifically has seen appreciably less research than other countries in the global South, despite arguably having the lowest adaptive capacity and projections of severe impacts of climate change to the tourism sector from temperature increases, changes in precipitation volume and sea level rise. This paper therefore presents a review of the existing literature on adaptation strategies of tourism sectors and participants in African countries. The crucial argument of this paper is in highlighting the need for an increase in research into the threats of climate change to tourism in African countries, identifying future research trajectories. The development of such knowledge would assist in the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies for these most vulnerable tourism economies.

Disjunct perceptions? Climate change threats in two-low lying South African coastal towns.

Abstract Coastal towns rely heavily on the quality and expanse of their beaches to attract tourists. Climate is an important tourism determinant, controlling the length and timing of peak arrivals. South African tourism is particularly reliant on these factors. Perceptions of tourists and tourist accommodation establishment regarding climate change threats to tourism are explored for the towns of St Francis Bay and Cape St Francis. Tourism accommodation establishments were predominantly concerned with day-to-day changes in weather, investing in small-scale infrastructural changes to improve the comfort of their guests. By contrast, tourists demonstrated greater concern for the risk of flooding, sea-level rise and the degeneration of the beaches. This reflects concerning disjunctures between perceptions of tourists and accommodation establishments regarding climate change threats. This may portray to tourists insufficient investment in adaptation at accommodation establishments, resulting in decreased tourist visitations in the short-term in favour of destinations perceived as better prepared.

Economic costs of the 2012 floods on tourism in the Mopani District Municipality, South Africa

The landfall of Tropical Storm Dando resulted in a severe flood event in the Lowveld region of the Limpopo Province in South Africa from 17 to 19 January 2012, with over 500 mm of rainfall recorded over a 24-hour period. The Mopani District Municipality declared a local state of disaster following these floods. Interviews conducted with 24 lodges and conservation establishments indicate a total direct cost of R58.92 million, ‘costs’ of loss of business of R4.230 million, and an increase in long-term expenses, including insurance, adaptation and mitigation, of R458 600. Due to the low response rate, the economic damage to the tourism sector exceeds that of the 42 farms and 11 local businesses interviewed. Damage ranged from the loss of household contents to the complete destruction of all buildings on the property. The capacity for tourism establishments to recover from the floods depended primarily on the type and value of their insurance. Additional strain was placed on tourism establishments through the damage to roads, poor water supply during the floods, the removal of trees, and a loss of the aesthetic quality of the region. This case study provides a valuable insight into the nature and severity of the impacts of floods on the South African tourism sector, and contributes to projecting impacts of global climate change on tourism in developing countries.

Late Quaternary research in southern Africa: progress, challenges and future trajectories

Southern African late Quaternary research has developed rapidly during recent decades, with an increase in the range of proxies used, the inclusion of new field sites, and increased international collaboration and skills transfer. This has enabled recent meta-studies into the synoptic drivers of palaeoenvironmental shifts across the region, and of spatial variability in climatic and environmental changes. Expanded research has also highlighted uncertainties in the understanding of southern African palaeoenvironments, and the relationships with Northern Hemisphere analogues, encouraging on-going critical debate within the discipline. Given current concerns of climate change impacts on the natural environment, the spread of invasives, increased fire frequency, and anthropogenic influences on the natural environment, palaeoenvironmental data and inferences are increasingly being utilised outside of the palaeoenvironmental discipline, providing a valuable inter-disciplinary platform for global change science in the region. Relative to the size, landscape and climatic heterogeneity and resultant biome variability across southern Africa, the network of palaeoenvironmental study sites remains sparse, and arguably insufficient to resolve key debates. This paper critically reviews these spatial gaps in palaeoenvironmental knowledge, with a particular emphasis on the shortfalls of the current network of study sites and palaeoenvironmental records in resolving debates concerning latitudinal shifts of the Westerlies, conditions during the last glacial maximum and contemporaneous Northern and Southern Hemisphere climatic events. Southern African applications of palaeoenvironmental science in exploring ecological trait shifts, fire influences and anthropogenic impacts are briefly discussed, to facilitate the future identification of key sites, proxies, debates and applications in ongoing regional Quaternary work.

Climate suitability for tourism in South Africa

ABSTRACT Tourism Climate Indices (TCIs) have been used extensively in the global North to quantify the climatic suitability of tourist destinations. TCIs have very seldom been applied in the global South. This gap in the literature is significant, due to the considerable growth that tourism sectors in the global South have experienced over recent decades. Moreover, many of these countries seldom have the infrastructure to modify indoor climates and effectively mitigate against poor weather. We present TCI results for 18 tourist destinations across South Africa. With mean annual TCI scores for the period 1995–2015 spanning 76.5 for Port Nolloth to 93 for the Pilansberg, the comparatively favourable climatic conditions in South Africa relative to much of Europe and North America is confirmed. There is distinct seasonality in TCI scores for the majority of study locations, yet the dichotomy between the South African summer and rainfall zones ensure a net balance in climatic suitability countrywide year-round. Time trends in TCI scores over recent decades indicate non-significant change for the majority of locations, and all significant trends indicate slight improvements in the climatic suitability for tourism. These results present a promising outlook of sustained climatic suitability of the region for tourism.

Towards green guest houses in South Africa: the case of Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal

Tourists tend to have a large environmental impact, consuming substantial quantities of water, energy and other resources. As the primary supplier of these commodities, tourist accommodation establishments have the greatest potential to mitigate negative effects on the environment. Guest houses are becoming increasingly popular in South Africa, and due to their small scale and more contained capital costs, serve as the ideal starting point for greening initiatives. This study on the potential for greening guest houses within Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal demonstrates that the majority of interviewed guest house owners are aware of their impact on the environment, and are interested in mitigating these harms. The majority of them are not currently graded by any environmental certification programme. Attempts at greening guest houses are increasingly common, but progress in achieving the mitigation of environmental damage is slow. More academic attention is required to understand the initiatives to encourage greening in tourism accommodation generally in South Africa.

Increasing frost risk associated with advanced citrus flowering dates in Kerman and Shiraz, Iran: 1960–2010

Flowering dates and the timing of late season frost are both driven by local ambient temperatures. However, under climatic warming observed over the past century, it remains uncertain how such impacts affect frost risk associated with plant phenophase shifts. Any increase in frost frequency or severity has the potential to damage flowers and their resultant yields and, in more extreme cases, the survival of the plant. An accurate assessment of the relationship between the timing of last frost events and phenological shifts associated with warmer climate is thus imperative. We investigate spring advances in citrus flowering dates (orange, tangerine, sweet lemon, sour lemon and sour orange) for Kerman and Shiraz, Iran from 1960 to 2010. These cities have experienced increases in both Tmax and Tmin, advances in peak flowering dates and changes in last frost dates over the study period. Based on daily instrumental climate records, the last frost dates for each year are compared with the peak flowering dates. For both cities, the rate of last frost advance lags behind the phenological advance, thus increasing frost risk. Increased frost risk will likely have considerable direct impacts on crop yields and on the associated capacity to adapt, given future climatic uncertainty.

Insight into American tourists’ experiences with weather in South Africa

Abstract Weather and climate are often important factors determining the success of a tourism destination and resultant satisfaction among tourists. This is particularly true for South Africa due the predominance of outdoor tourist attractions. Increasing numbers of international tourists have visited South Africa since the fall of apartheid, particularly those from the United States (U.S.), which is an important market for South African tourism. Therefore, this paper seeks to examine a sample of American tourists’ experience with day-to-day weather and climatic conditions in South Africa. The results show that although respondents did not feel that climatic conditions were an important factor in motivations to visit the country, the day-to-day weather did often impact the enjoyment of their visit. Most notably, weather controlled their ability to participate in outdoor activities. In correlating accounts of unpleasant weather conditions with the meteorological records, a close association emerged, particularly for excessively high temperatures. This indicates that the experiences of American tourists are an accurate indication of climatic unsuitability for tourism, which poses threats to the South African outdoor tourism sector.