Jens-Peter B. Lillesø

An ecoregion-based approach to protecting half the terrestrial realm

Abstract We assess progress toward the protection of 50% of the terrestrial biosphere to address the species-extinction crisis and conserve a global ecological heritage for future generations. Using a map of Earths 846 terrestrial ecoregions, we show that 98 ecoregions (12%) exceed Half Protected; 313 ecoregions (37%) fall short of Half Protected but have sufficient unaltered habitat remaining to reach the target; and 207 ecoregions (24%) are in peril, where an average of only 4% of natural habitat remains. We propose a Global Deal for Nature—a companion to the Paris Climate Deal—to promote increased habitat protection and restoration, national- and ecoregion-scale conservation strategies, and the empowerment of indigenous peoples to protect their sovereign lands. The goal of such an accord would be to protect half the terrestrial realm by 2050 to halt the extinction crisis while sustaining human livelihoods.

Climate change and tree genetic resource management: maintaining and enhancing the productivity and value of smallholder tropical agroforestry landscapes. A review

Anthropogenic climate change has significant consequences for the sustainability and productivity of agroforestry ecosystems upon which millions of smallholders in the tropics depend and that provide valuable global services. We here consider the current state of knowledge of the impacts of climate change on tree genetic resources and implications for action in a smallholder setting. Required measures to respond to change include: (1) the facilitated translocation of environmentally-matched germplasm across appropriate geographic scales, (2) the elevation of effective population sizes of tree stands through the promotion of pollinators and other farm management interventions; and (3) the use of a wider range of ‘plastic’ species and populations for planting. Key bottlenecks to response that are discussed here include limitations in the international exchange of tree seed and seedlings, and the absence of well-functioning delivery systems to provide smallholders with better-adapted planting material. Greater research on population-level environmental responses in indigenous tree species is important, and more studies of animal pollinators in farm landscapes are required. The development of well-functioning markets for new products that farmers can grow in order to mitigate and adapt to anthropogenic climate change must also consider genetic resource issues, as we describe.

Tree Seed and Seedling Supply Systems: A Review of the Asia, Africa and Latin America Models

The paper reviews tree seed and seedling supply systems in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and Latin America. Across these regions, the review found that some of the germplasm supply systems do not efficiently meet farmers’ demands and environmental expectations in terms of productivity, species and genetic diversity. In some countries, germplasm used is mostly sourced from undocumented sources and often untested. Germplasm quality control systems are only found in a few countries. Appreciation of the value of tree germplasm of high genetic quality is low. Non-government organisations (NGOs) in many African countries play a prominent role in the supply of germplasm which is usually given to farmers without charge. The practice of giving farmers free germplasm by NGOs in many African countries and also government participation in germplasm supply in some Asian countries has been blamed for crowding out private entrepreneurs, although this is not substantiated by any evidence to suggest that the smallholder farmers are willing and able to pay for the germplasm. In some Latin American countries, private companies, government and NGOs provide farmers tree germplasm in a partnership in which farmers provide land and labour in return. Overall, tree germplasm markets are large in Asia, due in part to large afforestation programs, intermediate in Latin America and small in Africa where smallholder farmers constitute the market. In countries where germplasm quality control is practiced, it is either through a legal framework or voluntary. A few countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America have developed protocols for certification of tree seeds based on the OECD. Some germplasm suppliers use branding as a way of differentiating their germplasm as having superior quality. To enhance the use of high quality germplasm, there is a need to demonstrate the value of using such germplasm and raise awareness of germplasm quality among the farmers and policy-makers.

Current and Future Fire Regimes and Their Influence on Natural Vegetation in Ethiopia

Fire is a major factor shaping the distribution of vegetation types. In this study, we used a recent high resolution map of potential natural vegetation (PNV) types and MODIS fire products to model and investigate the importance of fire as driver of vegetation distribution patterns in Ethiopia. We employed statistical modeling techniques to estimate the distribution of fire and the PNVs under current climatic conditions, and used the calibrated models to project distributions for different climate change scenarios. Results show a clear congruence between distribution patterns of fire and major vegetation types. The effect of climate change varies considerably between climate change models and scenarios, but as general trend expansions of moist Afromontane forest and Combretum–Terminalia woodlands were predicted. Fire-prone areas were also predicted to increase, and including this factor in vegetation distribution models resulted in stronger expansion of Combretum–Terminalia woodlands and a more limited increase of moist Afromontane forests. These results underline the importance of fire as a regulating factor of vegetation distribution patterns, and how fire needs to be factored into predict the possible effects of climate change. For conservation strategies to effectively address conservation challenges caused by rapid climate shifts, it is imperative that they not only consider the direct influence of climate changes on the vegetation, species species, or biodiversity patterns, but also the influence of future fire regimes.

Environmental Gap Analysis to Prioritize Conservation Efforts in Eastern Africa

Countries in eastern Africa have set aside significant proportions of their land for protection. But are these areas representative of the diverse range of species and habitats found in the region? And do conservation efforts include areas where the state of biodiversity is likely to deteriorate without further interventions? Various studies have addressed these questions at global and continental scales. However, meaningful conservation decisions are required at finer geographical scales. To operate more effectively at the national level, finer scale baseline data on species and on higher levels of biological organization such as the eco-regions are required, among other factors. Here we adopted a recently developed high-resolution potential natural vegetation (PNV) map for eastern Africa as a baseline to more effectively identify conservation priorities. We examined how well different potential natural vegetations (PNVs) are represented in the protected area (PA) network of eastern Africa and used a multivariate environmental similarity index to evaluate biases in PA versus PNV coverage. We additionally overlaid data of anthropogenic factors that potentially influence the natural vegetation to assess the level of threat to different PNVs. Our results indicate substantial differences in the conservation status of PNVs. In addition, particular PNVs in which biodiversity protection and ecological functions are at risk due to human influences are revealed. The data and approach presented here provide a step forward in developing more transparent and better informed translation from global priorities to regional or national implementation in eastern Africa, and are valid for other geographic regions.

To what extent are genetic resources considered in environmental service provision? A case study based on trees and carbon sequestration

Planting trees to sequester carbon dioxide mitigates climate change, but it has been contended that insufficient attention is given to the quality of the germplasm established in afforestation/reforestation programmes, limiting sequestration opportunities. To understand current practices in the choice, sourcing and delivery of tree planting material, we undertook a desk review of 38 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) afforestation/reforestation project design documents (PDDs) from Africa, Asia and Latin America. Detailed examination indicated most PDDs identified for planting species that could be locally appropriate, with a large number of indigenous taxa as well as exotics chosen. The number of indigenous species in some designs appeared however to be unrealistic in terms of ensuring germplasm access. Reference to an online germplasm supplier database and comparison with the available literature supported the hypothesis that many PDDs pay insufficient attention to the choice, sourcing and delivery of planting material, which is likely to impact on the quality of the trees planted. Moving forward, it is clear that greater attention to available sources, more local testing of germplasm and working in closer relationship with local communities in nursery development are among the interventions required to support tree-based sequestration initiatives.

A meta-analysis of molecular marker genetic datasets for eastern Africa trees supports the utility of potential natural vegetation maps for planning climate-smart restoration initiatives

Forest and woodland landscape restoration is a key undertaking of renewed interest for forestry and conservation practitioners, but is hampered by the lack of information on the distributions of tree species and of patterns of intra-specific genetic variation. Through the first meta-analysis of its type, we here tested the utility of a high-resolution potential natural vegetation (PNV) map for eastern Africa (vegetationmap4africa) for supporting restoration activities by comparison with 20 molecular marker genetic datasets, identified through literature review and other sources, for ten indigenous tree species. Our analysis indicated that site suitability and stability values from PNV-based ecological niche modelling involving current and past climate scenarios were positively related to population genetic diversity values revealed by molecular markers, supporting the value of PNV maps for the practical planning of restoration activities accounting for anthropogenic climate change. Furthermore, population pairwise genetic divergence was strongly positively correlated with population pairwise geographic distances for most datasets, indicating generalizable sampling implications for tree genetic resource conservation in the region. Population pairwise genetic divergence was however not well explained by sampling across PNV and wider physiognomic types, possibly due to molecular markers’ adaptive neutrality and high rates of recombination in trees, among other factors. Patterns of neutral molecular marker variation are thus no substitute for trials of adaptive variation for confirming or refuting the utility of vegetation boundaries in defining tree planting zones. We discuss the importance of results for eastern Africa and more widely.