Jeremiah F. Creedon

Air Transportation Strategic Trade Space Modeling and Assessment Through Analysis of On-Demand Air Mobility with Electric Aircraft

1 Manager of Strategic Analysis, Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, NASA HQ, Washington DC 20546 2 Chief Executive Office, 205 Skimino Landing Dr., Williamsburg, VA 23188, AIAA Fellow 3 Chief Science Officer, 508 Olive St., Santa Cruz, CA 95076, AIAA Member 4 Chief Technology Officer, 784 Rosewood Dr., Palo Alto, CA 94303, AIAA Member 5 Senior Economist, GRA, Inc., 115 West Av, Suite 201, Jenkintown, PA 19046 6 Senior Consultant, LMI, 2000 Corporate Ridge, McLean, VA 22102, AIAA Senior Member 7 Senior Fellow, LMI, 2000 Corporate Ridge, McLean, VA 22102 8 Senior Fellow, LMI, 2000 Corporate Ridge, McLean, VA 22102 9 Director of Transportation Research, Old Dominion University, 5115 Hampton Blvd, Norfolk, VA 23529, AIAA Fellow 10 Metron Aviation, 45300 Catalina Court, Suite 101, Dulles, VA 20166 11 Metron Aviation, 45300 Catalina Court, Suite 101, Dulles, VA 20166 12 IAI, Inc., 15400 Calhoun Drive, Suite 400, Rockville MD 20855 13 NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA 23681 14 NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA 23681, AIAA Senior Member 15 Associate Technical Fellow, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, Seattle, WA 12th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Conference and 14th AIAA/ISSM 17 19 September 2012, Indianapolis, Indiana AIAA 2012-5594

Future National Airspace System Architecture Evaluation: Methods and Initial Results

The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) represents the transformation of the National Airspace System (NAS) using 21 century technologies to ensure future safety, capacity and environmental needs are met. NextGen will be realized through investments in research and development, technologies, operational changes, and the coordinated efforts of private industry and federal NextGen Partner Agencies. The National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA) Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate’s (ARMD) Strategic Architecture and Analysis (SAA) office uses NAS-wide modeling and simulations to evaluate these alternatives and estimate the corresponding stakeholder benefits under future scenarios that consider different objectives and operating environments. The analysis contained in this paper, which was started in FY2012, expands upon prior SAA work supporting the Joint Planning & Development Office (JPDO) Interagency Portfolio & Systems Analysis portfolio assessments to include a far-term, full vision of NextGen in 2040 as well as the incorporation of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). This paper describes the formulation and evaluation of the NextGen alternatives in 2025 and 2040, methods for evaluating their performance and provides an initial set of results.

Modal Preference Modeling of Transportation Demand and Supply for Strategy Portfolio Analyses - Results and Future Plans

Future demand for transportation is and will continue to be shaped by forces that have not been well accommodated in past strategic analyses; further, regression-based analytical methods are less well suited than generative methods for projecting demands for modal options that have little historical data on which to base regressions. New transportation modes, business models, consumer behaviors and vehicle capabilities are the primary factors not well managed in regressive demand projection methods. An example is the ability to study co-evolutionary effects such as a “virtual” mode or modes (i.e., interacting by telepresence as a modal option) on population dynamics or urbanization trends. The risk is that current national transportation strategies in air mobility tend to be constrained by “business as usual” considerations of a rear-view-facing nature. In addition, air transportation demand projections are frequently made in modal isolation; that is, projections for air travel demand have not typically accounted for the full context of all other existing and prospective new modal options and their improvements. Further, if the strategy development processes do not consider the prospect of vastly different characteristics of external context, including new consumer behaviors and modal options then the strategies carry inherent risks. The plausible ranges and combinations in trends or vectors in technologies, energy, environmental, and prosperity considerations comprise a wide range of future conditions s in which strategies must be evaluated. Because 1 Chief Executive Office, 205 Skimino Landing Dr., Williamsburg, VA 23188, AIAA Fellow 2 Chief Science Officer, 508 Olive St., Santa Cruz, CA 95076, AIAA Member 3 Chief Technology Officer, 784 Rosewood Dr., Palo Alto, CA 94303, AIAA Member 4 Director, Transportation Research, Old Dominion University, 5115 Hampton Blvd, Norfolk, VA 23529, AIAA 2 Chief Science Officer, 508 Olive St., Santa Cruz, CA 95076, AIAA Member 3 Chief Technology Officer, 784 Rosewood Dr., Palo Alto, CA 94303, AIAA Member 4 Director, Transportation Research, Old Dominion University, 5115 Hampton Blvd, Norfolk, VA 23529, AIAA Fellow 5 Senior Consultant, LMI, 2000 Corporate Ridge, McLean, VA 22102, AIAA Senior Member 6 Senior Fellow, LMI, 2000 Corporate Ridge, McLean, VA 22102 7 Senior Economist, GRA, Inc., 115 West Av, Suite 201, Jenkintown, PA 19046 8 Manager of Strategic Analysis, Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, NASA HQ, Washington DC 20546