Jeremy Horowitz

Ties that bind? The rise and decline of ethno-regional partisanship in Malawi, 1994–2009

In the first three elections following Malawis return to democracy in 1993, voting patterns displayed a clear ethno-regional pattern. Then in 2009 the regional pattern broke down in dramatic fashion, with the incumbent President, Bingu wa Mutharika, attracting majority support across all three regions. This article first examines whether ethnic identities were at the root of Malawis ethno-regional electoral pattern. Our tests show that while ethnic identities were associated with partisan attachments in some areas, regional patterns were more consistently related to other factors, particularly views of the governments performance and the inclusiveness of the ruling party. We then examine the breakdown of the regional pattern, drawing on trend analysis of public opinion data from 1999 to 2008. We show that by 2009 the majority of Malawians in all three regions had come to hold positive views of Mutharikas performance and had come to see his government as inclusive. We conclude, therefore, that shifts in patterns of partisanship had more to do with political factors – Mutharikas symbolic and substantive policies during this first term – than ethnic identities. Malawi reminds us that incumbents, when faced with incentives to construct multi-ethnic support bases, can use the power of the state to reach out across ethnic political boundaries and re-order supposedly entrenched patterns of partisanship.

Civic Education and Democratic Backsliding in the Wake of Kenya's Post-2007 Election Violence

This paper examines two previously unexplored questions related to the impact of civic education programs in emerging democracies: 1) whether such programs have longer-terms effects, and 2) whether civic education can be effective in the context of democratic “backsliding.” We investigate these questions in the context of a large-scale civic education program implemented in Kenya between 2006 and 2007. The program ended just before the disputed 2007 election that sparked a wave of ethnic clashes that killed more than 1,000 people, displaced at least 350,000 from their homes, and brought the country to the brink of civil war. Data come from a survey of 3,600 respondents conducted in late-2008, about nine months after the violence. We test for program effects across a range of dependent variables, and find that the program did have longer-term effects, particularly on variables related to civic competence and engagement. It had less consistent effects, however, on core democratic values and orientations. These findings are consistent with previous studies of the short-term effects of civic education. Intriguingly, we also find that the program had positive effects related to Kenya’s post-election violence. Participants in the program who subsequently were affected by the violence were less likely (relative to non-participants who were later affected by the violence) to adopt negative beliefs about Kenya’s political system, less likely to support the use of ethnic or political violence, and more likely to forgive those responsible for the post-election violence.

The Ethnic Logic of Campaign Strategy in Diverse Societies Theory and Evidence From Kenya

Much of the existing ethnic politics literature suggests that in settings where ethnicity is politically salient, electoral competition encourages rival parties to focus narrowly on mobilizing their respective core ethnic constituents, a strategy that exacerbates ethnic divisions and may heighten the risk of conflict. This article develops an alternative account of campaign strategy that proposes that in highly diverse societies, an exclusive focus on core mobilization is likely to be an unattractive strategy. It argues that campaigns will be animated principally by the pursuit of swing voters outside of core strongholds, while the mobilization of core ethnic supporters will be delegated to lower level actors. To support these propositions, the article draws on data collected during Kenya’s 2007 presidential election.

Ethnicity and the Swing Vote in Africa’s Emerging Democracies: Evidence from Kenya

Who are Africa’s swing voters? This article argues that in settings where ethnicity is politically salient, core and swing are defined by whether ethnic groups have a co-ethnic leader in the election. For members of ethnic groups with a co-ethnic in the race, there is typically less uncertainty about which party or candidate will best represent the group’s interests. For members of groups without a co-ethnic in the race, uncertainty is often greater, making these voters potentially more receptive to campaign persuasion and more likely to change voting intentions during the campaign. Consistent with these expectations, panel data from Kenya’s 2013 presidential election shows that voters from groups without a co-ethnic in the race were more than two and a half times more likely to change their voting intentions during the campaign period.