Jérôme Lopez Saez

Seven centuries of avalanche activity at Echalp (Queyras massif, southern French Alps) as inferred from tree rings

The purpose of this study was to reconstruct spatiotemporal patterns of avalanche events in a forested avalanche path of the Queyras massif (Echalp avalanche path, southeast French Alps). Analysis of past events was based on tree-ring series from 163 heavily affected multicentennial larch trees (Larix decidua Mill.) growing near or next to the avalanche path. A total of 514 growth disturbances, such as tangential rows of traumatic resin ducts, the onset of compression wood as well as abrupt growth suppression or release, were identified in the samples indicating 38 destructive snow avalanches between 1338 and 2010. The mean return period of snow avalanches was 22 years with a 4% probability that an avalanche occurs in a particular year. On a temporal plan, three maxima in snow avalanche frequency were reconstructed at the beginning of the 16th and 19th centuries and around 1850, correlating with below-average winter temperatures and glacier advances. Analysis of the spatial distribution of disturbed trees contributed to the determination of four preferential patterns of avalanche events. The comparison of dendrogeomorphic data with historical records demonstrate that at least 18 events – six of which were undocumented – reached the hamlet of Echalp during the last seven centuries, but no significant temporal trend was detected concerning the frequency of these extreme events.

Climate change increases frequency of shallow spring landslides in the French Alps

In this contribution, past process activity is reconstructed on seven landslide bodies of the Riou Bourdoux catchment (southeastern French Alps). Based on an unusually dense data set of 3036 tree-ring series extracted from 759 conifers, we provide evidence for 61 landslide reactivations since A.D. 1898. Based on logistic regressions and threshold analyses of monthly rainfall data and temperature anomalies, we determine that the combination of snow-rich winters and positive temperature anomalies in spring (enhanced snowmelt) seems to have driven landslide reactivations in the past. Since the early 1990s, however, landslide reactivations clearly have been on the rise and thereby exhibit excessive and unprecedented rates of activity (12.5 events per 10 yr) at the scale of the Riou Bourdoux catchment. From the data, evidence exists for a shift from snowmelt-induced landslides (controlled by winter precipitation) to reactivations controlled by spring temperatures. Therefore, this contribution also adds evidence to the hypothesis that climate change (and related warmer springs) could further enhance landslide activity in the course of the 21 st century.

Probability Maps of Landslide Reactivation Derived from Tree-Ring Records

Probability maps of landslide reactivation are presented for the Aiguettes landslide located in the southern French Alps based on results obtained with dendrogeomorphic analysis. Spatio-temporal activity was derived from tree-ring series of 223 disturbed trees. 355 growth disturbances were identified in the samples indicating 14 reactivation phases of the landslide body between 1898 and 2011. Probabilities of landslide reactivation were computed and illustrated using a Poisson distribution model. For example, in the toe, the probability increases from 0.28 for a 5-year period to 0.99 for a 100-year period. This method differs from conventional approaches, which have demonstrated to have limitations in the prediction of spatiotemporal reactivation of landslides. Based on extensive data and therefore allowing determination of quantitative probability maps of reactivation, this approach is considered a valuable tool for land managers in charge of protecting and forecasting people as well as for those responsible for land-use planning and management.