Jerzy Feliks

Application of fuzzy sets in evaluation of failure likelihood

Estimation of failure likelihood for technical objects is a very difficult process because the information about the process is often uncertain and imprecise. Assessment of risk related in catastrophic damages is very difficult, particularly in systems where damage causes threat of human life or serious economic losses. Methods like FMEA and FMECA applied to evaluation of risk of designed systems do not give the full information about meaning of results of possible failure. Therefore the risk evaluation method, when risk is a product of failure likelihood and degree of failure, was proposed.

Logistic Network Dependability Evaluation – Business Continuity Oriented Approach

The aim of this paper is to propose a concept of logistic networks dependability evaluation, based on the continuity oriented approach. Because the modern logistic networks are more and more reliable, the number of failures and disruptions is significantly decreased. Therefore the well known probabilistic methods are in this case not more acceptable. We propose an expert system, based on the fuzzy sets theory, to evaluate the level of dependability for different configurations of the logistic networks and to simulate different possible disruptions scenarios.