Jerzy Hołubiec

Forecasting voting behaviour using machine learning – Poland in transition

The aim of the paper is to apply some inductive learning method from examples (which gives explicit decision rules of “if-then” type) to forecast the voting behaviour of individual members of the Polish Parliament. Results obtained are both interesting and promising.

Identification of Ideological Dimensions under Fuzziness: The Case of Poland

Under the new political conditions (parliamentary democracy) the results of elections to the parliament have to be considered as an unprecise representation of the real political situation. Consensus reached under such conditions is not stable.

Coordinated development of countries as a way to improve international stability

Abstract An idea of a coordinated development of a group of countries with different economic development levels is proposed. It is shown how in such a case the international economic cooperation should be organized to ensure development for all the countries involved, both the poorer and the richer ones.

Compromise Solution of Multiperson Cooperative Game and its Application to International Energy Cooperation

Abstract The international energy cooperation is considered, regarded as a multiperson cooperative game. For solving the game a new method, consisting in finding of so called compromise solution with regard to the determining point is proposed. The compromise solution here introduced is a modification of the general compromise solution for polyoptimisation tasks, specificity cf Cooperation accounted for. A way of finding these solutions is presented, founded upon the orthogonal projection. The Solution introduced is characterised by a number of practically advantages features: it exists for every cooperative game, it is Unique Individually rational and coalitively rational-provided the C-core of game is not empty. An example is given for illustrating applicability of the method.

The Influence of Political Conditions on the International Economic Cooperation

Abstract On the basis of the multiperson cooperative games theory conditions for the optimal international exchange, given a stable and incomplete politico-economic situation are formulated. On the basis of comparative analysis of models considered the influence of principal factors on the level of life in the countries participating in cooperation is quantitatively assessed. The negative impact of the incomplete politico-economic stability on the international economic cooperation, felt intuitively, demonstrated. The mechanism of price changes corresponding to changes in the international politico-economic situation is shown. The analysis is illustrated with an example.

Chapter 49 – Models for Railway Traffic Management

Publisher Summary This chapter examines models for railway traffic management. Basic assumptions concerning traffic flow in a railway network are presented. It is assumed that the railway stations are basic point controlled elements of the network and the considered network can be assumed to be a system of stations interconnected by means of railway tracks. The traffic flow equation for a railway station is based on the assumption that trains can be accumulated in the station. Under these assumptions a model of a railway network has been formulated in which values of traffic concentration in particular stations are state variables, streams of trains entering the stations are inputs and trains exiting the stations are outputs. In the model, the boundaries on the capacity of a railway network and the traffic capacity of stations are taken into account. Associated with this model an optimization problem consists of determining such values of streams of trains leaving railway stations which assure maximal railway station efficiency and maximal flow capacity of railway tracks. Based on a discrete version of traffic flow equations it is possible to consider the congestion problem connected with queues of trains waiting at stations.

Chapter 51 – Regional Strategy and Sustainable Development

Publisher Summary This chapter discusses the methodology of regional profiles that enables the presentation of regional characteristics and comparison of different regions. This methodology is similar to that used in the European Union. Restructuring the regional labor market is proposed as a part of the global database knowledge system for the considered region. The paper shows a way of modeling regional development strategy according to the given regional development tendency for the future. Group decision making via fuzzy preference relations to determine the consumption levels of resources and energy is considered. In Poland, the principles of eco-development are accepted. The environment conditions are obliged to approach predetermined levels. The implementation of the principle of sustainable development will lead in the direction of global safety in three dimensions that include economic, social, and environmental. It is necessary that the global cost of the transformation is divided suitably among the three sectors.

Regional Strategy and Sustainable Development

Abstract The authors discuss the methodology of “regional profiles” which enables the presentation of regional characteristics and comparison of different regions. This methodology is similar to that used in the European Union. Restructuring the regional labour market is proposed as a part of the global data base “knowledge” system for the considered region. The paper shows a way of modelling regional development strategy according to the given regional development tendency for the future (the year 2010). Group decision making via fuzzy preference relations to determine the consumption levels of resources and energy is considered.

Models for Railway Traffic Management

Abstract In the paper basic assumptions concerning traffic flow in a railway network are presented and under these assumptions a model of a railway network has been formulated. It is assumed that the railway stations are basic point controlled elements of the network and the considered network can be assumed to be a system of stations interconnected by means of railway tracks. The traffic flow equation for a railway station is based on the assumption that trains can be accumulated in the station. Under these assumptions a model of a railway network has been formulated in which values of traffic concentration in particular stations are state variables, streams of trains entering the stations are inputs and trains exiting the stations are outputs. In the model the boundaries on the capacity of a railway network and the traffic capacity of stations are taken into account. Associated with this model an optimization problem consists of determining such values of streams of trains leaving railway stations which assure maximal railway station efficiency and maximal flow capacity of railway tracks.

Regional Development and Economic Policy

Abstract Some new, theoretical results in international economic co-operation are recalled. Applications of these results are used for analysing the integration of economic systems of the former socialist countries with EU. The NAFTA problems are discussed. Conclusions: in the regional development of the world one can observe economic policies which stimulate both increases and decreases of international stability.