Jesper Rydén

Evaluating height–length joint distributions for the crests of ocean waves

The wavelength is an important quantity in a number of ocean-engineering applications, e.g. for design of structures that have dimensions of the same order of magnitude as the wavelength. Most often however, the description of the wave climate is given by a spectrum. We present a methodology based on a representation of a sea state in the frequency domain which returns the joint distribution of crest amplitudes and wavelengths. The method is validated with experimental empirical data, obtained by application of a technique based on Fourier transformation combined with use of the dispersion relation. The algorithm allows for investigation of the influence of spectral shape and directionality on the joint distribution; examples are given in the paper.

A Bernoulli distribution model for plug-in electric vehicle charging based on time-use data for driving patterns

This paper presents a Bernoulli distribution model for plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) charging based on high resolution activity data for Swedish driving patterns. Based on the activity “driving vehicle” from a time diary study a Monte Carlo simulation is made of PEV state of charge which is then condensed down to Bernoulli distributions representing charging for each hour during weekday and weekend day. These distributions are then used as a basis for simulations of PEV charging patterns. Results regarding charging patterns for a number of different PEV parameters are shown along with a comparison with results from a different stochastic model for PEV charging. A convergence test for Monte Carlo simulations of the distributions is also provided. In addition to this we show that multiple PEV charging patterns are represented by Binomial distributions via convolution of Bernoulli distributions. Also the distribution for aggregate charging of many PEVs is shown to be normally distributed. Finally a few remarks regarding the applicability of the model are given along with a discussion on potential extensions.

Polynomial probability distribution estimation using the method of moments

We suggest a procedure for estimating Nth degree polynomial approximations to unknown (or known) probability density functions (PDFs) based on N statistical moments from each distribution. The procedure is based on the method of moments and is setup algorithmically to aid applicability and to ensure rigor in use. In order to show applicability, polynomial PDF approximations are obtained for the distribution families Normal, Log-Normal, Weibull as well as for a bimodal Weibull distribution and a data set of anonymized household electricity use. The results are compared with results for traditional PDF series expansion methods of Gram–Charlier type. It is concluded that this procedure is a comparatively simple procedure that could be used when traditional distribution families are not applicable or when polynomial expansions of probability distributions might be considered useful approximations. In particular this approach is practical for calculating convolutions of distributions, since such operations become integrals of polynomial expressions. Finally, in order to show an advanced applicability of the method, it is shown to be useful for approximating solutions to the Smoluchowski equation.

A Statistical Analysis of Trends for Warm and Cold Spells in Uppsala by Means of Counts

Abstract Statistical studies of extremes are of interest in the climatic sciences, in particular trends of periods of unusually warm or cold weather, which could be labelled warm and cold spells, respectively. We study the yearly number of spells in Uppsala, Sweden which from a data‐analytic point of view truly are counts, and employ theory and methods from the field of regression models for counts. A possible trend for the period 1840–2012 was investigated. The trend for warm spells is positive and demonstrated to be larger in magnitude compared with the one for cold spells, and is found to be statistically significant. The methodology could be extended to analyse other climate indicators.

Exploring possibly increasing trend of hurricane activity by a SiZer approach

Statistical studies of hurricane activity in the North Atlantic basin are of current interest, not the least after the year of 2005 when many records were broken. An exploratory analysis of possibly increasing trend of the yearly number of hurricanes can be carried out by employing a graphic device, the SiZer map. Use of this method provides a useful complement to other statistical techniques for detection of trends or shifts in time series.

Accuracy and precision of 3 intraoral scanners and accuracy of conventional impressions : A novel in vivo analysis method

OBJECTIVE To evaluate a novel methodology using industrial scanners as a reference, and assess in vivo accuracy of 3 intraoral scanners (IOS) and conventional impressions. Further, to evaluate IOS precision in vivo. METHODS Four reference-bodies were bonded to the buccal surfaces of upper premolars and incisors in five subjects. After three reference-scans, ATOS Core 80 (ATOS), subjects were scanned three times with three IOS systems: 3M True Definition (3M), CEREC Omnicam (OMNI) and Trios 3 (TRIOS). One conventional impression (IMPR) was taken, 3M Impregum Penta Soft, and poured models were digitized with laboratory scanner 3shape D1000 (D1000). Best-fit alignment of reference-bodies and 3D Compare Analysis was performed. Precision of ATOS and D1000 was assessed for quantitative evaluation and comparison. Accuracy of IOS and IMPR were analyzed using ATOS as reference. Precision of IOS was evaluated through intra-system comparison. RESULTS Precision of ATOS reference scanner (mean 0.6 μm) and D1000 (mean 0.5 μm) was high. Pairwise multiple comparisons of reference-bodies located in different tooth positions displayed a statistically significant difference of accuracy between two scanner-groups: 3M and TRIOS, over OMNI (p value range 0.0001 to 0.0006). IMPR did not show any statistically significant difference to IOS. However, deviations of IOS and IMPR were within a similar magnitude. No statistical difference was found for IOS precision. CONCLUSION The methodology can be used for assessing accuracy of IOS and IMPR in vivo in up to five units bilaterally from midline. 3M and TRIOS had a higher accuracy than OMNI. IMPR overlapped both groups. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE Intraoral scanners can be used as a replacement for conventional impressions when restoring up to ten units without extended edentulous spans.

Is a White Christmas becoming rarer in southern parts of Sweden

The notion of White Christmas, for instance snow conditions at Christmas Day, is occasionally discussed among people in certain countries in the northern hemisphere. In this paper, the state of snow occurrence at Christmas Day at locations in Sweden are primarily considered binary events and methodology for statistical analysis of time series with binary responses is employed to investigate trend over time. None of the six locations studied showed a significant change over time.

The effect of interaction and rounding error in two-way ANOVA: example of impact on testing for normality

A key issue in various applications of analysis of variance (ANOVA) is testing for the interaction and the interpretation of resulting ANOVA tables. In this note it is demonstrated that for a two-way ANOVA, whether interactions are incorporated or not may have a dramatic influence when considering the usual statistical tests for normality of residuals. The effect of numerical rounding is also discussed.

Estimation of return values of wave height: consequences of missing observations

Extreme-value statistics is often used to estimate so-called return values (actually related to quantiles) for environmental quantities like wind speed or wave height. A basic method for estimation is the method of block maxima which consists in partitioning observations in blocks, where maxima from each block could be considered independent. Typically a block could be chosen as one year. Large portions of missing data could result in problems for estimation and seems to be an issue not highlighted in detail in the literature. The method of block maxima is here applied to real data and a related simulation study was performed, pointing out that substantially low values tend to increase the estimated return values. A plausible explanation is given by studying the redistribution of probability mass and the implications of this for the behaviours of the tails of distributions.

The Influence of Rainflow Filtering on the Distributions of Characteristic Wave Parameters

A problem when filtering measurements of the sea-surface level is that the highest values, which are also the most interesting, might get lost. The rainflow filter is an alternative to the band-pass filters traditionally used. In this paper we investigate the properties of rainflow filtering by examining the distributions of some characteristic wave parameters. These distributions are calculated by means of the regression-approximation method which requires as input a spectral density. An approximation of the rainflow filter in the frequency domain, obtained by spectral simulation, is therefore used. The rainflow filter yields results which are closer to the distributions obtained from the original spectrum with high-frequency contents.