Jesse M. Cunha

The Price Effects of Cash versus In-Kind Transfers

This paper compares how cash and in-kind transfers affect local prices. Both types of transfers increase the demand for normal goods, but only in-kind transfers also increase supply. Hence, in-kind transfers should lead to lower prices than cash transfers, which helps consumers at the expense of local producers. We test and confirm this prediction using a program in Mexico that randomly assigned villages to receive boxes of food (trucked into the village), equivalently-valued cash transfers, or no transfers. The pecuniary benefit to consumers of in-kind transfers, relative to cash transfers, equals 11% of the direct transfer.

Business Literacy and Development: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial in Rural Mexico

The poor in developing countries often run small enterprises, typically with low earnings, although lacking basic business skills. We offer a business skills course to female entrepreneurs in rural Mexico. We find that those randomly assigned to treatment have larger profits and revenues, serve a greater number of clients, and are more likely to use formal accounting techniques. These effects persist in the medium run. We present a simple model to interpret our results: we find that low-quality entrepreneurs appear slightly more likely to quit their business posttreatment and that the positive impacts of the treatment are increasing entrepreneurial quality.

Time-varying associations of suicide with deployments, mental health conditions, and stressful life events among current and former US military personnel: a retrospective multivariate analysis

BACKGROUND US military suicides have increased substantially over the past decade and currently account for almost 20% of all military deaths. We investigated the associations of a comprehensive set of time-varying risk factors with suicides among current and former military service members. METHODS We did a retrospective multivariate analysis of all US military personnel between 2001 and 2011 (n=110 035 573 person-quarter-years, representing 3 795 823 service members). Outcome was death by suicide, either during service or post-separation. We used Cox proportional hazard models at the person-quarter level to examine associations of deployment, mental disorders, history of unlawful activity, stressful life events, and other demographic and service factors with death by suicide. FINDINGS The strongest predictors of death by suicide were current and past diagnoses of self-inflicted injuries, major depression, bipolar disorder, substance use disorder, and other mental health conditions (compared with service members with no history of diagnoses, the hazard ratio [HR] ranged from 1·4 [95% CI 1·14-1·72] to 8·34 [6·71-10·37]). Compared with service members who were never deployed, hazard rates of suicide (which represent the probability of death by suicide in a specific quarter given that the individual was alive in the previous quarter) were lower among the currently deployed (HR 0·50, 95% CI 0·40-0·61) but significantly higher in the quarters following first deployment (HR 1·51 [1·17-1·96] if deployed in the previous three quarters; 1·14 [1·06-1·23] if deployed four or more quarters ago). The hazard rate of suicide increased within the first year of separation from the military (HR 2·49, 95% CI 2·12-2·91), and remained high for those who had separated from the military 6 or more years ago (HR 1·63, 1·45-1·82). INTERPRETATION The increased hazard rate of death by suicide for military personnel varies by time since exposure to deployment, mental health diagnoses, and other stressful life events. Continued monitoring is especially needed for these high-risk individuals. Additional information should be gathered to address the persistently raised risk of suicide among service members after separation. FUNDING Partly funded by the Naval Research Program.

Competition and Cooperation in a Public Goods Game: A Field Experiment

We explore the effects of competitive and cooperative motivations on contributions in a field experiment. A total of 10,000 potential political donors received solicitations referencing past contribution behavior of members of the competing party (competition treatment), the same party (cooperative treatment), or no past contribution information (control). We first theoretically analyze the effect of these treatments on the contribution behavior of agents with different social preferences in a modified intergroup public good (IPG) game. Then, we report the empirical results: Contribution rates in the competitive, cooperative, and control treatments were 1.45%, 1.08%, and 0.78%, respectively. With the exception of one large contribution, the distribution of contributions in the competitive treatment first order stochastically dominates that of the cooperative treatment. Qualitatively, it appears that the cooperative treatment induced more contributions around the common monetary reference point, while the competitive treatment led to more contributions at twice this amount. These results suggest that eliciting competitive rather than cooperative motivations can lead to higher contributions in IPG settings. (JEL D72, H41, C93)

Contrasting the Impacts of Combat and Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief Missions on the Mental Health of Military Service Members

Abstract We study the differential impacts of combat and humanitarian assistance/disaster relief (HA/DR) missions on the mental health of U.S. Marine Corps members. The deployment experiences of any individual Marine are plausibly random conditional on the observable characteristics which are used to assign Marines into units. Leveraging this exogenous variation, we compare the incidence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and suicide deaths among Marines who deployed to either Operation Enduring Freedom/Operation Iraqi Freedom (OEF/OIF) or HA/DR missions between 2001 and 2011. We find that the hazard of PTSD is close to eight times higher among Marines returning from OEF/OIF compared to those never deployed, and just 1.33 times higher among those returning from HA/DR (and never participated in OEF/OIF). Those returning from OEF/OIF missions are 1.81 times more likely than those never deployed to die by suicide when they were still active duty, and the hazard increases to almost 3 after they have left the military. In contrast, we find no difference in the hazards of suicide death between those that deployed to only HA/DR missions and non-deployed Marines.

Workplace goals and output quality: evidence from time-constrained recruiting goals in the US navy

This paper examines how workplace goals affect the quality of worker output, using data from the recruiting command of the US Navy. Recruiting stations and recruiters are assigned monthly goals for the quantity of new recruits that may create an unintended incentive to sacrifice quality, especially towards the end of the month. Using data on the universe of Navy recruits from FY1998 to 2010, we find significant reductions in the quality of recruits towards the end of the contracting month, both in terms of pre-existing quality of recruits and in medium-term outcomes that reflect the quality of the job match.

Pensions and Intertemporal Choice: Evidence from the U.S. Military

We study a choice made by over 20,000 U.S. military personnel annually between the High-3 and Redux retirement plans. Compared to High-3, Redux offers a

Expedited citizenship for sale: estimating the effect of Executive Order 13269 on noncitizen military enlistments

30,000 current lump sum payment in exchange for lower future annuity payments. Despite break-even discount rates between 10% and 25%, about 40% of individuals chose Redux. The likelihood of choosing Redux is decreasing with the break-even discount rate and is related to individual demographics. The implied personal discount rates from this choice are around 9.2%, much lower than found previously. Offering this choice has already saved the government over

The Price Effects of Cash Versus In-Kind Transfers

2 billion in future retirement payments.

The Retention Impacts of the Forthcoming U.S. Military Retirement Reform

This article estimates the effect of offering an expedited citizenship application process to noncitizens for joining the US military. Executive Order (EO) 13269, enacted in July of 2002, allowed noncitizens to apply for US citizenship immediately upon joining the military, effectively reducing the waiting time that is required to apply for citizenship from 3 years to 1 day. We identify the effect of the policy by using administrative personnel data on the universe of military enlistees between 1999 and 2010 along with a difference-in-differences (DD) strategy that uses accessions amongst citizens as the control group. Overall, we find no effect of the offer of expedited citizenship on total accessions amongst noncitizens. However, this overall null effect masks significant shifts of noncitizen enlistments out of combat intensive services and into ‘safer’ services. These results provide the first empirical evidence about this important, and relatively costless, recruiting policy.