Jessica Bellarby

Competition for land.

A key challenge for humanity is how a future global population of 9 billion can all be fed healthily and sustainably. Here, we review how competition for land is influenced by other drivers and pressures, examine land-use change over the past 20 years and consider future changes over the next 40 years. Competition for land, in itself, is not a driver affecting food and farming in the future, but is an emergent property of other drivers and pressures. Modelling studies suggest that future policy decisions in the agriculture, forestry, energy and conservation sectors could have profound effects, with different demands for land to supply multiple ecosystem services usually intensifying competition for land in the future. In addition to policies addressing agriculture and food production, further policies addressing the primary drivers of competition for land (population growth, dietary preference, protected areas, forest policy) could have significant impacts in reducing competition for land. Technologies for increasing per-area productivity of agricultural land will also be necessary. Key uncertainties in our projections of competition for land in the future relate predominantly to uncertainties in the drivers and pressures within the scenarios, in the models and data used in the projections and in the policy interventions assumed to affect the drivers and pressures in the future.

Fugacity modelling to predict the distribution of organic contaminants in the soil: oil matrix of constructed biopiles.

Level I and II fugacity approaches were used to model the environmental distribution of benzene, anthracene, phenanthrene, 1-methylphenanthrene and benzo[a]pyrene in a four phase biopile system, accounting for air, water, mineral soil and non-aqueous phase liquid (oil) phase. The non-aqueous phase liquid (NAPL) and soil phases were the dominant partition media for the contaminants in each biopile and the contaminants differed markedly in their individual fugacities. Comparison of three soils with different percentage of organic carbon (% org C) showed that the % org C influenced contaminant partitioning behaviour. While benzene showed an aqueous concentration worthy of note for leachate control during biopiling, other organic chemicals showed that insignificant amount of chemicals leached into the water, greatly reducing the potential extent of groundwater contamination. Level II fugacity model showed that degradation was the dominant removal process except for benzene. In all three biopile systems, the rate of degradation of benzo(a)pyrene was low, requiring more than 12 years for soil concentrations from a spill of about 25 kg (100 mol) to be reduced to a concentration of 0.001 microgg(-1). The removal time of 1-methylphenanthrene and either anthracene or phenanthrene was about 1 and 3 years, respectively. In contrast, benzene showed the highest degradation rate and was removed after 136 days in all biopile systems. Overall, this study confirms the association of risk critical contaminants with the residual saturation in treated soils and reinforces the importance of accounting for the partitioning behaviour of both NAPL and soil phases during the risk assessment of oil-contaminated sites.

Mineralisation of target hydrocarbons in three contaminated soils from former refinery facilities.

This study investigated the microbial degradation of (14)C-labelled hexadecane, octacosane, phenanthrene and pyrene and considered how degradation might be optimised in three genuinely hydrocarbon-contaminated soils from former petroleum refinery sites. Hydrocarbon mineralisation by the indigenous microbial community was monitored over 23 d. Hydrocarbon mineralisation enhancement by nutrient amendment (biostimulation), hydrocarbon degrader addition (bioaugmentation) and combined nutrient and degrader amendment, was also explored. The ability of indigenous soil microflora to mineralise (14)C-target hydrocarbons was appreciable; ≥ 16% mineralised in all soils. Generally, addition of nutrients or degraders increased the rates and extents of mineralisation of (14)C-hydrocarbons. However, the addition of nutrients and degraders in combination had a negative effect upon (14)C-octacosane mineralisation and resulted in lower extents of mineralisation in the three soils. In general, the rates and extents of mineralisation will be dependent upon treatment type, nature of the contamination and adaptation of the ingenious microbial community.

Systems approaches in global change and biogeochemistry research.

Systems approaches have great potential for application in predictive ecology. In this paper, we present a range of examples, where systems approaches are being developed and applied at a range of scales in the field of global change and biogeochemical cycling. Systems approaches range from Bayesian calibration techniques at plot scale, through data assimilation methods at regional to continental scales, to multi-disciplinary numerical model applications at country to global scales. We provide examples from a range of studies and show how these approaches are being used to address current topics in global change and biogeochemical research, such as the interaction between carbon and nitrogen cycles, terrestrial carbon feedbacks to climate change and the attribution of observed global changes to various drivers of change. We examine how transferable the methods and techniques might be to other areas of ecosystem science and ecology.

The stocks and flows of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium across a 30-year time series for agriculture in Huantai county, China

In order to improve the efficiency of nutrient use whilst also meeting projected changes in the demand for food within China, new nutrient management frameworks comprised of policy, practice and the means of delivering change are required. These frameworks should be underpinned by systemic analyses of the stocks and flows of nutrients within agricultural production. In this paper, a 30-year time series of the stocks and flows of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) are reported for Huantai county, an exemplar area of intensive agricultural production in the North China Plain. Substance flow analyses were constructed for the major crop systems in the county across the period 1983-2014. On average across all production systems between 2010 and 2014, total annual nutrient inputs to agricultural land in Huantai county remained high at 18.1kt N, 2.7kt P and 7.8kt K (696kg N ha-1; 104kgP ha-1; 300kgK ha-1). Whilst the application of inorganic fertiliser dominated these inputs, crop residues, atmospheric deposition and livestock manure represented significant, yet largely unrecognised, sources of nutrients, depending on the individual production system and the period of time. Whilst nutrient use efficiency (NUE) increased for N and P between 1983 and 2014, future improvements in NUE will require better alignment of nutrient inputs and crop demand. This is particularly true for high-value fruit and vegetable production, in which appropriate recognition of nutrient supply from sources such as manure and from soil reserves will be required to enhance NUE. Aligned with the structural organisation of the public agricultural extension service at county-scale in China, our analyses highlight key areas for the development of future agricultural policy and farm advice in order to rebalance the management of natural resources from a focus on production and growth towards the aims of efficiency and sustainability.

The role of the land biosphere in climate change mitigation

Human interaction with the land biosphere has contributed to climate change. The land biosphere can play an important role in climate mitigation, through measures such as the management of forests and other carbon sinks, management of agricultural practices, and shifts from fossil-fuel energy to renewable forms of bioenergy. The potential for mitigation must be assessed with regard to the multiple demands for land and the services that ecosystems provide to human society. Introduction: from human perturbation to biosphere management Living organisms have co-evolved with the atmosphere, oceans and land surface, contributing to the climate that supports life on Earth today. The increasing human appropriation of the biosphere for food, energy and construction materials, which has brought enormous benefits, has also inadvertently contributed to a loss of biodiversity, widespread pollution, environmental degradation, and climate change. Human activities have altered the balance of terrestrial greenhouse-gas sources and sinks. The replacement of forests and other natural ecosystems with crops, pastures and urban settlements has caused emissions of CO 2 due to losses from the carbon stock in vegetation and soils, and increased emissions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O ) and methane (CH 4 ) due to diverse agricultural practices.