Jessica Nakiyingi-Miiro

HIV prevalence and incidence are no longer falling in southwest Uganda: evidence from a rural population cohort 1989-2005.

Background:Throughout the 1990s, HIV-1 prevalence and incidence were falling in Uganda. Recently, some researchers have noticed that HIV-1 prevalence is levelling off. We examine prevalence, incidence, and sexual behaviour trends in a rural population cohort in Uganda over 16 years. Methods:We report prevalence by survey round and incidence by calendar year from a prospective general population cohort study. Using logistic regression Wald tests, we examined casual partners, condom use, and pregnancies. We examined age at sexual debut by means of life tables. Results:HIV-1 prevalence declined from 8.5% in 1990/1991 to 6.2% in 1999/2000, and thereafter rose to 7.7% in 2004/2005. Incidence (per 1000 person-years at risk) fell from 7.5 in 1990 to 4.1 in 1998, and thereafter increased to 5.0 by 2004. The 2005 incidence estimate reached an all-time low of 2.5, but the preliminary 2006 estimate shows a rise again. Incidence trends varied by age and sex. Some sexual behaviour indicators showed more risky behaviour in recent years compared with the 1990s, whereas others indicated that the reduction in risky behaviour that began in the 1990s continues. Conclusion:HIV-1 prevalence is rising in this cohort. Incidence is stabilizing, and shows signs of increasing among some subgroups. The extent to which changing sexual behaviour has played a role in these epidemiological trends is unclear, but it is likely to have contributed. To solidify the success that Uganda had throughout the 1990s in controlling the HIV epidemic, the efforts in HIV prevention need to be re-strengthened, using all strategies known.

Changing association between schooling levels and HIV-1 infection over 11 years in a rural population cohort in south-west Uganda

Background  Previous studies have found that in Africa, a greater risk of HIV infection is often found in groups with higher educational attainment. However, some serial cross‐sectional studies have found greater reductions in HIV prevalence among more educated groups, especially in cohorts of young adults. More recent studies have found some instances where higher schooling levels are associated with lower HIV prevalence.

Effect of HIV infection on pregnancy-related mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: secondary analyses of pooled community-based data from the network for Analysing Longitudinal Population-based HIV/AIDS data on Africa (ALPHA)

Summary Background Model-based estimates of the global proportions of maternal deaths that are in HIV-infected women range from 7% to 21%, and the effects of HIV on the risk of maternal death is highly uncertain. We used longitudinal data from the Analysing Longitudinal Population-based HIV/AIDS data on Africa (ALPHA) network to estimate the excess mortality associated with HIV during pregnancy and the post-partum period in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods The ALPHA network pooled data gathered between June, 1989 and April, 2012 in six community-based studies in eastern and southern Africa with HIV serological surveillance and verbal-autopsy reporting. Deaths occurring during pregnancy and up to 42 days post partum were defined as pregnancy related. Pregnant or post-partum person-years were calculated for HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected women, and HIV-infected to HIV-uninfected mortality rate ratios and HIV-attributable rates were compared between pregnant or post-partum women and women who were not pregnant or post partum. Findings 138 074 women aged 15–49 years contributed 636 213 person-years of observation. 49 568 women had 86 963 pregnancies. 6760 of these women died, 235 of them during pregnancy or the post-partum period. Mean prevalence of HIV infection across all person-years in the pooled data was 17·2% (95% CI 17·0–17·3), but 60 of 118 (50·8%) of the women of known HIV status who died during pregnancy or post partum were HIV infected. The mortality rate ratio of HIV-infected to HIV-uninfected women was 20·5 (18·9–22·4) in women who were not pregnant or post partum and 8·2 (5·7–11·8) in pregnant or post-partum women. Excess mortality attributable to HIV was 51·8 (47·8–53·8) per 1000 person-years in women who were not pregnant or post partum and 11·8 (8·4–15·3) per 1000 person-years in pregnant or post-partum women. Interpretation HIV-infected pregnant or post-partum women had around eight times higher mortality than did their HIV-uninfected counterparts. On the basis of this estimate, we predict that roughly 24% of deaths in pregnant or post-partum women are attributable to HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, suggesting that safe motherhood programmes should pay special attention to the needs of HIV-infected pregnant or post-partum women. Funding Wellcome Trust, Health Metrics Network (WHO).

High HIV incidence and socio-behavioral risk patterns in fishing communities on the shores of Lake Victoria, Uganda.

Background: We report on HIV acquisition and its associated risk factors in 5 fishing communities on the shores of Lake Victoria in Uganda. A cohort of 1000 HIV-uninfected at-risk volunteers aged 13 to 49 years were recruited in 2009 and followed up for 18 months. Methods: At enrollment and semiannual visits, socio-demographic and risk behavior data were collected through a structured questionnaire and blood samples tested for HIV and syphilis. Detailed life histories were collected from 78 volunteers using in-depth interviews. Results: Of the 1000 volunteers enrolled, 919 (91.9%) were followed up, with 762 (76.2%) reaching the study end points (either seroconverted or completed 4 visits). There were 59 incident cases in 1205.6 person-years at risk (PYAR), resulting in an incidence rate of 4.9 (95% CI = 3.8 to 6.3) per 100 PYAR. The highest HIV incidence rates were among those working in bars (9.8/100 PYAR [4.7–20.6]), protestants (8.6/100 PYAR [5.8–12.7]), those aged 13 to 24 years (7.5/100 PYAR [5.2–11.0]), and new immigrants (6.6/100 PYAR [4.9–8.9]). HIV infection was independently associated with being young (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 2.5 [95% CI = 1.3–4.9]), reporting genital sores/discharge recently (aHR = 2.8 [1.6–5.0]), regular alcohol consumption (aHR = 3.3 [1.6–6.1]), use of marijuana (aHR = 2.9 [1.0–8.0]), cigarette smoking (aHR = 3.6 [1.4–9.3]), and religion (compared with Catholics, Protestants had aHR = 2.7 [1.4–5.3] and Muslims had aHR = 2.3 [1.1–4.8]). Conclusions: These fishing communities experienced high HIV infection, which was mainly explained by high-risk behavior. There is an urgent need to target HIV prevention and research efforts to this vulnerable and neglected group.

The general population cohort in rural south-western Uganda: a platform for communicable and non-communicable disease studies

The General Population Cohort (GPC) was set up in 1989 to examine trends in HIV prevalence and incidence, and their determinants in rural south-western Uganda. Recently, the research questions have included the epidemiology and genetics of communicable and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) to address the limited data on the burden and risk factors for NCDs in sub-Saharan Africa. The cohort comprises all residents (52% aged ≥13years, men and women in equal proportions) within one-half of a rural sub-county, residing in scattered houses, and largely farmers of three major ethnic groups. Data collected through annual surveys include; mapping for spatial analysis and participant location; census for individual socio-demographic and household socioeconomic status assessment; and a medical survey for health, lifestyle and biophysical and blood measurements to ascertain disease outcomes and risk factors for selected participants. This cohort offers a rich platform to investigate the interplay between communicable diseases and NCDs. There is robust infrastructure for data management, sample processing and storage, and diverse expertise in epidemiology, social and basic sciences. For any data access enquiries you may contact the director, MRC/UVRI, Uganda Research Unit on AIDS by email to mrc@mrcuganda.org or the corresponding author.

Feasibility and Effectiveness of Cotrimoxazole Prophylaxis for HIV-1-Infected Adults Attending an HIV/AIDS Clinic in Uganda.

Background: Cotrimoxazole is recommended for prevention of opportunistic infections in symptomatic HIV patients in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: We examined the feasibility and effectiveness of daily cotrimoxazole prophylaxis in a well-established cohort of HIV-infected adults attending clinics in Entebbe, Uganda. We compared mortality and morbidity rates for 12 months before and after the introduction of cotrimoxazole. Results: Between August 2000 and February 2002, 94% of cohort members were enrolled onto cotrimoxazole prophylaxis. Revisits were scheduled every 4 weeks to replenish pills; patients attended 61% of revisits. The main reasons for nonenrollment and defaulting were lack of transport, being away from home, and sickness. Drug-related adverse events, mainly itching and rash, were seen in 4% of participants. Although bacterial resistance rate to cotrimoxazole was high, the adjusted mortality incidence rate ratio was significantly reduced after the introduction of cotrimoxazole (0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.96; P = 0.020). Overall febrile events and morbidity rates were unchanged after the introduction of cotrimoxazole, but the incidence of malaria was reduced (incidence rate ratio, 0.31; 95% confidence interval, 0.13-0.72). Conclusions: Cotrimoxazole prophylaxis can be introduced into routine HIV clinic activities and is associated with a reduction in overall mortality and malaria morbidity, even in an area with high bacterial resistance. These results reinforce the need for large-scale provision of cotrimoxazole prophylaxis for all HIV-positive patients in developing countries.

Mortality trends in the era of antiretroviral therapy: evidence from the Network for Analysing Longitudinal Population based HIV/AIDS data on Africa (ALPHA)

Background:The rollout of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is one of the largest public health interventions in Eastern and Southern Africa of recent years. Its impact is well described in clinical cohort studies, but population-based evidence is rare. Methods:We use data from seven demographic surveillance sites that also conduct community-based HIV testing and collect information on the uptake of HIV services. We present crude death rates of adults (aged 15–64) for the period 2000–2011 by sex, HIV status, and treatment status. Parametric survival models are used to estimate age-adjusted trends in the mortality rates of people living with HIV (PLHIV) before and after the introduction of ART. Results:The pooled ALPHA Network dataset contains 2.4 million person-years of follow-up time, and 39114 deaths (6893 to PLHIV). The mortality rates of PLHIV have been relatively static before the availability of ART. Mortality declined rapidly thereafter, with typical declines between 10 and 20% per annum. Compared with the pre-ART era, the total decline in mortality rates of PLHIV exceeds 58% in all study sites with available data, and amounts to 84% for women in Masaka (Uganda). Mortality declines have been larger for women than for men; a result that is statistically significant in five sites. Apart from the early phase of treatment scale up, when the mortality of PLHIV on ART was often very high, mortality declines have been observed in PLHIV both on and off ART. Conclusion:The expansion of treatment has had a large and pervasive effect on adult mortality. Mortality declines have been more pronounced for women, a factor that is often attributed to womens greater engagement with HIV services. Improvements in the timing of ART initiation have contributed to mortality reductions in PLHIV on ART, but also among those who have not (yet) started treatment because they are increasingly selected for early stage disease.

Updates to the Spectrum model to estimate key HIV indicators for adults and children

Background:The Spectrum program is used to estimate key HIV indicators for national programmes. The purpose of the study is to describe the key updates made to Spectrum in the last 2 years to produce the version used in the 2013 global estimates of HIV/AIDS. Methods:The United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) Reference Group on Estimates, Models and Projections regularly reviews new data and information needs and recommends updates to the methodology and assumptions used in Spectrum. The latest data from surveys, census and special studies are used to estimate key parameter values for countries and regions. Results:Country-specific life tables prepared by the United National Population Division (UNPD) have been incorporated into Spectrums demographic projections replacing the model life tables used previously. This update includes revised estimates of non-AIDS life expectancy. Incidence among all adults 15–49 years generated from curve fitting to surveillance and survey data is now split by age using incidence rate ratios derived from Analysing Longitudinal Population-based HIV/AIDS data on Africa Network data for generalized epidemics. Methods for estimating the number of AIDS orphans have been updated to include the changing effects of PMTCT and antiretroviral therapy programmes. Procedures for estimating the number of adults eligible for treatment have been updated to reflect the 2013 WHO guidelines. Program data on AIDS mortality has been used to estimate prevalence trends in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico for the 2013 estimates. Conclusion:Spectrum was updated for the 2013 round of HIV estimates in order to support national programmes with improved methods and data to estimating national indicators.

The impact of attending a behavioural intervention on HIV incidence in Masaka Uganda.

Objective: Changing behaviour is an important method for preventing HIV infection. We examined why a community randomized trial of a behavioural intervention found no significant effect of this on HIV incidence in rural Uganda. Design: An individual-level analysis of a community randomized trial. Methods: All sexually active, initially HIV-seronegative individuals with data on sexual behaviour were included (1558 men and 1836 women). Uptake of the intervention was measured using self-reported attendance at meetings, videos, dramas, and interactions with community educators in the past year. Sexual behaviour was assessed using self-reported condom use and the number of sexual partners in the past year. Results: Overall, 81% of individuals in the intervention communities and 9% in the comparison communities reported attending at least one of the intervention activities in the past year. Attendance was lower in women, in those aged 55 years or older, and in the widowed. There was a lower HIV incidence in those who reported attending at least one intervention activity compared with those who attended none, and in women this effect was statistically significant (in women, adjusted rate ratio 0.41, 95% CI 0.19–0.89, P = 0.024; in men, adjusted rate ratio 0.66, 95% CI 0.25–1.79, P = 0.42). Reported behaviour change did not differ markedly between those who did and did not report attending any intervention activities. Conclusion: Although the intervention had no significant benefit in the communities as a whole, it resulted in a reduced risk of HIV acquisition in women who attended it. The methodological implications for future trials are discussed.

Sociodemographic distribution of non-communicable disease risk factors in rural Uganda: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are rapidly becoming leading causes of morbidity and mortality in low- and middle-income countries, including those in sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast to high-income countries, the sociodemographic distribution, including socioeconomic inequalities, of NCDs and their risk factors is unclear in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly among rural populations. METHODS We undertook a cross-sectional population-based survey of 7809 residents aged 13 years or older in the General Population Cohort in south-western rural Uganda. Information on behavioural, physiological and biochemical risk factors was obtained using standardized methods as recommended by the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Socioeconomic status (SES) was determined by principal component analysis including household features, ownership, and occupation and education of the head of household. RESULTS SES was found to be associated with NCD risk factors in this rural population. Smoking, alcohol consumption (men only) and low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol were more common among those of lower SES. For example, the prevalence of smoking decreased 4-fold from the lowest to the highest SES groups, from 22.0% to 5.7% for men and 2.2% to 0.4% for women, respectively. In contrast, overweight, raised blood pressure, raised HbA1c (women only) and raised cholesterol were more common among those of higher SES. For example, the prevalence of overweight increased 5-fold from 2.1% to 10.1% for men, and 2-fold from 12.0% to 23.4% for women, from the lowest to highest SES groups respectively. However, neither low physical activity nor fruit, vegetable or staples consumption was associated with SES. Furthermore, associations between NCD risk factors and SES were modified by age and sex. CONCLUSIONS Within this rural population, NCD risk factors are common and vary both inversely and positively across the SES gradient. A better understanding of the determinants of the sociodemographic distribution of NCDs and their risk factors in rural sub-Saharan African populations will help identify populations at most risk of developing NCDs and help plan interventions to reduce their burden.