Jesús Aguirre-Gutiérrez

Species richness declines and biotic homogenisation have slowed down for NW-European pollinators and plants

Concern about biodiversity loss has led to increased public investment in conservation. Whereas there is a widespread perception that such initiatives have been unsuccessful, there are few quantitative tests of this perception. Here, we evaluate whether rates of biodiversity change have altered in recent decades in three European countries (Great Britain, Netherlands and Belgium) for plants and flower visiting insects. We compared four 20-year periods, comparing periods of rapid land-use intensification and natural habitat loss (1930–1990) with a period of increased conservation investment (post-1990). We found that extensive species richness loss and biotic homogenisation occurred before 1990, whereas these negative trends became substantially less accentuated during recent decades, being partially reversed for certain taxa (e.g. bees in Great Britain and Netherlands). These results highlight the potential to maintain or even restore current species assemblages (which despite past extinctions are still of great conservation value), at least in regions where large-scale land-use intensification and natural habitat loss has ceased.

Fit-for-Purpose: Species Distribution Model Performance Depends on Evaluation Criteria – Dutch Hoverflies as a Case Study

Understanding species distributions and the factors limiting them is an important topic in ecology and conservation, including in nature reserve selection and predicting climate change impacts. While Species Distribution Models (SDM) are the main tool used for these purposes, choosing the best SDM algorithm is not straightforward as these are plentiful and can be applied in many different ways. SDM are used mainly to gain insight in 1) overall species distributions, 2) their past-present-future probability of occurrence and/or 3) to understand their ecological niche limits (also referred to as ecological niche modelling). The fact that these three aims may require different models and outputs is, however, rarely considered and has not been evaluated consistently. Here we use data from a systematically sampled set of species occurrences to specifically test the performance of Species Distribution Models across several commonly used algorithms. Species range in distribution patterns from rare to common and from local to widespread. We compare overall model fit (representing species distribution), the accuracy of the predictions at multiple spatial scales, and the consistency in selection of environmental correlations all across multiple modelling runs. As expected, the choice of modelling algorithm determines model outcome. However, model quality depends not only on the algorithm, but also on the measure of model fit used and the scale at which it is used. Although model fit was higher for the consensus approach and Maxent, Maxent and GAM models were more consistent in estimating local occurrence, while RF and GBM showed higher consistency in environmental variables selection. Model outcomes diverged more for narrowly distributed species than for widespread species. We suggest that matching study aims with modelling approach is essential in Species Distribution Models, and provide suggestions how to do this for different modelling aims and species’ data characteristics (i.e. sample size, spatial distribution).

Species Distribution Models for Crop Pollination: A Modelling Framework Applied to Great Britain

Insect pollination benefits over three quarters of the worlds major crops. There is growing concern that observed declines in pollinators may impact on production and revenues from animal pollinated crops. Knowing the distribution of pollinators is therefore crucial for estimating their availability to pollinate crops; however, in general, we have an incomplete knowledge of where these pollinators occur. We propose a method to predict geographical patterns of pollination service to crops, novel in two elements: the use of pollinator records rather than expert knowledge to predict pollinator occurrence, and the inclusion of the managed pollinator supply. We integrated a maximum entropy species distribution model (SDM) with an existing pollination service model (PSM) to derive the availability of pollinators for crop pollination. We used nation-wide records of wild and managed pollinators (honey bees) as well as agricultural data from Great Britain. We first calibrated the SDM on a representative sample of bee and hoverfly crop pollinator species, evaluating the effects of different settings on model performance and on its capacity to identify the most important predictors. The importance of the different predictors was better resolved by SDM derived from simpler functions, with consistent results for bees and hoverflies. We then used the species distributions from the calibrated model to predict pollination service of wild and managed pollinators, using field beans as a test case. The PSM allowed us to spatially characterize the contribution of wild and managed pollinators and also identify areas potentially vulnerable to low pollination service provision, which can help direct local scale interventions. This approach can be extended to investigate geographical mismatches between crop pollination demand and the availability of pollinators, resulting from environmental change or policy scenarios.

Functional traits help to explain half-century long shifts in pollinator distributions

Changes in climate and land use can have important impacts on biodiversity. Species respond to such environmental modifications by adapting to new conditions or by shifting their geographic distributions towards more suitable areas. The latter might be constrained by species’ functional traits that influence their ability to move, reproduce or establish. Here, we show that functional traits related to dispersal, reproduction, habitat use and diet have influenced how three pollinator groups (bees, butterflies and hoverflies) responded to changes in climate and land-use in the Netherlands since 1950. Across the three pollinator groups, we found pronounced areal range expansions (>53%) and modelled range shifts towards the north (all taxa: 17–22 km), west (bees: 14 km) and east (butterflies: 11 km). The importance of specific functional traits for explaining distributional changes varied among pollinator groups. Larval diet preferences (i.e. carnivorous vs. herbivorous/detritivorous and nitrogen values of host plants, respectively) were important for hoverflies and butterflies, adult body size for hoverflies, and flight period length for all groups. Moreover, interactions among multiple traits were important to explain species’ geographic range shifts, suggesting that taxon-specific multi-trait analyses are needed to predict how global change will affect biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Ecological effects of the invasive giant madagascar day gecko on endemic mauritian geckos: applications of binomial-mixture and species distribution models.

The invasion of the giant Madagascar day gecko Phelsuma grandis has increased the threats to the four endemic Mauritian day geckos (Phelsuma spp.) that have survived on mainland Mauritius. We had two main aims: (i) to predict the spatial distribution and overlap of P. grandis and the endemic geckos at a landscape level; and (ii) to investigate the effects of P. grandis on the abundance and risks of extinction of the endemic geckos at a local scale. An ensemble forecasting approach was used to predict the spatial distribution and overlap of P. grandis and the endemic geckos. We used hierarchical binomial mixture models and repeated visual estimate surveys to calculate the abundance of the endemic geckos in sites with and without P. grandis. The predicted range of each species varied from 85 km2 to 376 km2. Sixty percent of the predicted range of P. grandis overlapped with the combined predicted ranges of the four endemic geckos; 15% of the combined predicted ranges of the four endemic geckos overlapped with P. grandis. Levins niche breadth varied from 0.140 to 0.652 between P. grandis and the four endemic geckos. The abundance of endemic geckos was 89% lower in sites with P. grandis compared to sites without P. grandis, and the endemic geckos had been extirpated at four of ten sites we surveyed with P. grandis. Species Distribution Modelling, together with the breadth metrics, predicted that P. grandis can partly share the equivalent niche with endemic species and survive in a range of environmental conditions. We provide strong evidence that smaller endemic geckos are unlikely to survive in sympatry with P. grandis. This is a cause of concern in both Mauritius and other countries with endemic species of Phelsuma.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal interactions of mycoheterotrophic Thismia are more specialized than in autotrophic plants

Summary In general, plants and arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi exchange photosynthetically fixed carbon for soil nutrients, but occasionally nonphotosynthetic plants obtain carbon from AM fungi. The interactions of these mycoheterotrophic plants with AM fungi are suggested to be more specialized than those of green plants, although direct comparisons are lacking. We investigated the mycorrhizal interactions of both green and mycoheterotrophic plants. We used next‐generation DNA sequencing to compare the AM communities from roots of five closely related mycoheterotrophic species of Thismia (Thismiaceae), roots of surrounding green plants, and soil, sampled over the entire temperate distribution of Thismia in Australia and New Zealand. We observed that the fungal communities of mycoheterotrophic and green plants are phylogenetically more similar within than between these groups of plants, suggesting a specific association pattern according to plant trophic mode. Moreover, mycoheterotrophic plants follow a more restricted association with their fungal partners in terms of phylogenetic diversity when compared with green plants, targeting more clustered lineages of fungi, independent of geographic origin. Our findings demonstrate that these mycoheterotrophic plants target more narrow lineages of fungi than green plants, despite the larger fungal pool available in the soil, and thus they are more specialized towards mycorrhizal fungi than autotrophic plants.

Richness pattern and phytogeography of the Cerrado herb–shrub flora and implications for conservation

Aims The herb–shrub flora has been widely neglected in science and conservation policy throughout the world, so that this biodiversity component remains largely unknown. The objective of this study was to elucidate the spatial patterns of species richness and phytogeographic regions of the Cerrado herb–shrub flora, and to estimate the percentage of areas with high species richness that is still covered by natural vegetation and is located in protected areas or priority areas for conservation. Location Central Brazil and surrounding territories. Methods To estimate the pattern of species richness we produced species distribution models (SDMs) for 5362 species using botanical records combined with 17 least correlated environmental variables. All SDMs were tested against a bias-corrected null model and the 5039 significant SDMs were stacked to generate the pattern of botanical richness. The resulting presence–absence matrix was subjected to a partitioning around medoids (PAM) cluster analysis to delineate phytogeographic regions. Results The pattern of species richness indicated that highest levels of richness are in the central–south and west parts of the Cerrado. The study recognized two floristically distinct clusters at the core of the Cerrado region, and seven additional regions that share floristic elements with the two core clusters. Many areas with high levels of modelled species richness are located outside protected and priority areas for conservation. Conclusions We recognized patterns of regional variation, reflected in the phytogeographic division. Furthermore, we show that the current protected areas in Brazil do not effectively protect high richness areas of the herb–shrub flora.

Testing projected wild bee distributions in agricultural habitats: predictive power depends on species traits and habitat type.

Abstract Species distribution models (SDM) are increasingly used to understand the factors that regulate variation in biodiversity patterns and to help plan conservation strategies. However, these models are rarely validated with independently collected data and it is unclear whether SDM performance is maintained across distinct habitats and for species with different functional traits. Highly mobile species, such as bees, can be particularly challenging to model. Here, we use independent sets of occurrence data collected systematically in several agricultural habitats to test how the predictive performance of SDMs for wild bee species depends on species traits, habitat type, and sampling technique. We used a species distribution modeling approach parametrized for the Netherlands, with presence records from 1990 to 2010 for 193 Dutch wild bees. For each species, we built a Maxent model based on 13 climate and landscape variables. We tested the predictive performance of the SDMs with independent datasets collected from orchards and arable fields across the Netherlands from 2010 to 2013, using transect surveys or pan traps. Model predictive performance depended on species traits and habitat type. Occurrence of bee species specialized in habitat and diet was better predicted than generalist bees. Predictions of habitat suitability were also more precise for habitats that are temporally more stable (orchards) than for habitats that suffer regular alterations (arable), particularly for small, solitary bees. As a conservation tool, SDMs are best suited to modeling rarer, specialist species than more generalist and will work best in long‐term stable habitats. The variability of complex, short‐term habitats is difficult to capture in such models and historical land use generally has low thematic resolution. To improve SDMs’ usefulness, models require explanatory variables and collection data that include detailed landscape characteristics, for example, variability of crops and flower availability. Additionally, testing SDMs with field surveys should involve multiple collection techniques.

Ecological niche comparison and molecular phylogeny segregate the invasive moss species Campylopus introflexus (Leucobryaceae, Bryophyta) from its closest relatives

Abstract The delimitation of the invasive moss species Campylopus introflexus from its closest relative, Campylopus pilifer, has been long debated based on morphology. Previous molecular phylogenetic reconstructions based on the nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacers (ITS) 1 and 2 showed that C. pilifer is split into an Old World and a New World lineage, but remained partly inconclusive concerning the relationships between these two clades and C. introflexus. Analyses of an extended ITS dataset displayed statistically supported incongruence between ITS1 and ITS2. ITS1 separates the New World clade of C. pilifer from a clade comprising C. introflexus and the Old World C. pilifer. Ancestral state reconstruction showed that this topology is morphologically supported by differences in the height of the dorsal costal lamellae in leaf cross‐section (despite some overlap). ITS2, in contrast, supports the current morphological species concept, i.e., separating C. introflexus from C. pilifer, which is morphologically supported by the orientation of the hyaline hair point at leaf apex as well as costal lamellae height. Re‐analysis of published and newly generated plastid atpB‐rbcL spacer sequences supported the three ITS lineages. Ecological niche modeling proved a useful approach and showed that all three molecular lineages occupy distinct environmental spaces that are similar, but undoubtedly not equivalent. In line with the ITS1 topology, the C. pilifer lineage from the New World occupies the most distinct environmental niche, whereas the niches of Old World C. pilifer and C. introflexus are very similar. Taking the inferences from ecological niche comparisons, phylogenetics, and morphology together, we conclude that all three molecular lineages represent different taxa that should be recognized as independent species, viz. C. introflexus, C. pilifer (Old World clade), and the reinstated C. lamellatus Mont. (New World clade).

Are Plant Species’ Richness and Diversity Influenced by Fragmentation at a Microscale?

It is argued that forest fragmentation has negative effects on biodiversity at the short and long term; however, these effects might be dependent on the specific vegetation of the study area and its intrinsic characteristics. The processes leading to fragmentation are very diverse and many of them have anthropogenic causes as logging actions and clearings for agricultural fields. Furthermore, it is thought that scale plays an important role in the expected effects of fragmentation on biodiversity. In this study the effect of forest fragmentation and its impact on the woody plants species, richness and diversity are analysed considering three vegetation types in a poorly studied and difficult access biodiversity hotspot in northern Mexico. The results show that the effects of fragmentation are dependent on the vegetation type and that these are not strongly related to the species richness, and diversity in a microscale (100 m2). Fragmentation effects on biodiversity must be analysed in a broad scale, considering the fragment as a whole. Furthermore, conservation priority should be given to the larger fragments, which could potentially maintain a higher portion of biodiversity. Management should also be focused on increasing the connectivity between these big and medium size forest patches.