Jesus Dubert

Generation and unstable evolution of a density-driven Eastern Poleward Current: The Iberian Poleward Current

[1] The generation and evolution of a density-driven Eastern Poleward Current is investigated using a high-resolution primitive equation numerical model. The simulations focus on the Iberian Poleward Current (IPC) as a case study. The flow is generated by a meridional upper ocean density gradient balanced by an eastward surface-intensified flow that adjusts at the coastal margin. The resulting current system has a baroclinic character with poleward flow at the surface layer, and equatorward flow underneath. A few weeks after initialization, the sheared along-slope flow generates several vorticity structures downstream of the main topographic features. In the lee of the topography, persistent anticyclones are observed and deep cyclogenesis is induced in relation to the meandering of the upper layer jet. These structures evolve preferentially as cyclone/ anticyclone eddy pairs, and after interaction some dipoles are ejected offslope. Within a period of a few months, the initial meridional gradient evolves into a complex system of fronts, eddies and slope flows. The dynamics of flow topography interaction is analyzed. A comparison with satellite imagery of the IPC is conducted and similarity in scales and patterns is noted.

Surface circulation in the Gulf of Cadiz: Model and mean flow structure

[1] The mean flow structure of the Gulf of Cadiz is studied using a numerical model. The model consists of a set of one-way nested configurations attaining resolutions on the order of 2.6 km in the region of the Gulf of Cadiz. In the large-scale configuration, the entrainment of the Mediterranean Water is parameterized implicitly through a nudging term. In medium- and small-scale nested configurations, the Mediterranean outflow is introduced explicitly. The model reproduces all the known features of the Azores Current and of the circulation inside the Gulf of Cadiz. A realistic Mediterranean Undercurrent is generated and Meddies develop at proper depths on the southwest tip of the Iberian slope. The hypothesis that the Azores Current may generate in association with the Mediterranean outflow (β-plume theories) is confirmed by the model results. The time-mean flow is dominated by a cyclonic cell generated in the gulf which expands westward and has transports ranging from 4 to 5 Sv. The connection between the cell and the Azores Current is analyzed. At the scale of the Gulf, the time-mean flow cell is composed by the westward Mediterranean Undercurrent, and by a counterflow running eastward over the outer edge of the Mediterranean Undercurrent deeper vein, as the latter is forced downslope. This counterflow feeds the entrainment at the depths of the Mediterranean Undercurrent and the Atlantic inflow at shallower levels. Coastward and upslope of this recirculation cell, a second current running equatorward all the way along the northern part of the gulf is revealed. This current is a very robust model result that promotes continuity between the southwestern Iberian coast and the Strait of Gibraltar, and helps explain many observations and recurrent SST features of the Gulf of Cadiz.

Surface circulation in the Gulf of Cadiz: 2. Inflow-outflow coupling and the Gulf of Cadiz slope current

[1] A study of the upper slope circulation in the Gulf of Cadiz is presented. Observations, both original and revisited, and realistic numerical modeling are used together to describe the structure and variability of the slope current system above the Mediterranean outflow. It is shown that the Mediterranean inflow-outflow coupling plays a stronger role than that of the atmospheric forcing in driving the upper slope currents. The Mediteranean outflow forces a surface open ocean current toward the Strait of Gibraltar. Part of it is entrained into the outflow and the remaining flows into the Mediterranean. This latter component does not suffice for the observed transport of the Atlantic inflow into the Mediterranean. A secondary contribution to the inflow is therefore needed to complement the transport. This contribution comes from a persistent equatorward current along the upper slope between Cape St. Vincent and the Strait of Gibraltar. The jet is 20–30 km wide and significant in the upper 200 m attaining subinertial maxima as much as 0.3–0.4 m/s and monthly means in the order of 0.1–0.15 m/s. This current shows a strong variability at time scales in the order of 2–8 days, and displays a significant vertical shear. The response of the upper slope current to synoptic and seasonal atmospheric variability is analyzed. Very low correlation was detected at synoptic scales and the response of the system to seasonal forcing is unclear. A cycle of intensification in June–July and a decrease in winter is apparent in the measurements, but is weak in the model results. It is speculated that the cycle in the observed currents is associated with variability in the inflow/outflow coupling system, rather than driven by seasonally changing wind forcing.

Subinertial Response of a Density-Driven Eastern Boundary Poleward Current to Wind Forcing

Abstract A high-resolution primitive equation numerical model is used to generate a poleward flow along a meridionally oriented eastern boundary slope/shelf system by imposing an along-coast density gradient as the forcing mechanism. Wind forcing is applied to the resulting quasi-steady current system, and the subinertial response is analyzed. Parallel experiments with no slope-poleward flow are conducted for comparison. Moderately strong upwelling- and downwelling-favorable, week-to-month-scale wind events modify the poleward flow but do not significantly change the density-driven current structure at the slope. The alongshore transport within the slope region is reduced by 0.2–0.3 Sv (from 1.2 Sv, where Sv ≡ 106 m3 s–1), under the influence of either downwelling or upwelling winds. Independent of the wind direction, the density-driven poleward flow always remains surface intensified. Wind-driven shelf currents develop with a considerable degree of independence from the slope-poleward circulation. On the...

Model-derived dispersal pathways from multiple source populations explain variability of invertebrate larval supply.

Background Predicting the spatial and temporal patterns of marine larval dispersal and supply is a challenging task due to the small size of the larvae and the variability of oceanographic processes. Addressing this problem requires the use of novel approaches capable of capturing the inherent variability in the mechanisms involved. Methodology/Principal Findings In this study we test whether dispersal and connectivity patterns generated from a bio-physical model of larval dispersal of the crab Carcinus maenas, along the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, can predict the highly variable daily pattern of wind-driven larval supply to an estuary observed during the peak reproductive season (March–June) in 2006 and 2007. Cross-correlations between observed and predicted supply were significant (p<0.05) and strong, ranging from 0.34 to 0.81 at time lags of −6 to +5 d. Importantly, the model correctly predicted observed cross-shelf distributions (Pearson r = 0.82, p<0.001, and r = 0.79, p<0.01, in 2006 and 2007) and indicated that all supply events were comprised of larvae that had been retained within the inner shelf; larvae transported to the outer shelf and beyond never recruited. Estimated average dispersal distances ranged from 57 to 198 km and were only marginally affected by mortality. Conclusions/Significance The high degree of predicted demographic connectivity over relatively large geographic scales is consistent with the lack of genetic structuring in C. maenas along the Iberian Peninsula. These findings indicate that the dynamic nature of larval dispersal can be captured by mechanistic biophysical models, which can be used to provide meaningful predictions of the patterns and causes of fine-scale variability in larval supply to marine populations.

Towards Operational Modeling and Forecasting of the Iberian Shelves Ecosystem

There is a growing interest on physical and biogeochemical oceanic hindcasts and forecasts from a wide range of users and businesses. In this contribution we present an operational biogeochemical forecast system for the Portuguese and Galician oceanographic regions, where atmospheric, hydrodynamic and biogeochemical variables are integrated. The ocean model ROMS, with a horizontal resolution of 3 km, is forced by the atmospheric model WRF and includes a Nutrients-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus biogeochemical module (NPZD). In addition to oceanographic variables, the system predicts the concentration of nitrate, phytoplankton, zooplankton and detritus (mmol N m−3). Model results are compared against radar currents and remote sensed SST and chlorophyll. Quantitative skill assessment during a summer upwelling period shows that our modelling system adequately represents the surface circulation over the shelf including the observed spatial variability and trends of temperature and chlorophyll concentration. Additionally, the skill assessment also shows some deficiencies like the overestimation of upwelling circulation and consequently, of the duration and intensity of the phytoplankton blooms. These and other departures from the observations are discussed, their origins identified and future improvements suggested. The forecast system is the first of its kind in the region and provides free online distribution of model input and output, as well as comparisons of model results with satellite imagery for qualitative operational assessment of model skill.

Mean Circulation, Seasonal Cycle, and Eddy Interactions in the Eastern Brazilian Margin, a Nested ROMS Model

Abstract A nested configuration of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) is used to study the seasonal circulation patterns and mesoscale activity of the Eastern Brazilian Margin (EBM). The EBM encompass an oligotrophic and bathymetrically complex zone in the NW South Atlantic from 8°S to 20°S. Sea-level anomaly data are used to validate the model. Analysis of the mean circulation reveals that the EBM is dominated by seasonal and spatial dynamics of the southward Brazil Current (BC) and the northward North Brazil Undercurrent (NBUC), as well as their connection to the South Equatorial Current (SEC) dynamics. The EBM can be divided in three dynamic provinces, which are seasonally connected either by the permanent main flow or by mesoscale process. In the northern province, from 8°S to 13°S, the NBUC is the major permanent feature and the BC is just a thin flow, confined to the top few meters. As it moves southward, the BC gets deeper and stronger. In the middle province, from 13°S to 16°S, the dominance of the top 0–100-m circulation is seasonally alternated between the southward BC flow and the northward NBUC flow. In the southern province, from 16°S to 20°S, the BC appears as a dominating surface feature. While on the top (0–100 m) the main current presents a pronounced seasonal and spatial variability, on subsurface waters (100–500 m) the NBUC connects the EBM continuously. Finally, analysis of the regional simulation reveals well-defined cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies. They detach from the main flow and translate along the domain throughout the year. The translation patterns are associated with the seasonal variability of the main EBM flow, with anticyclonic mesoscale features translating southward and mesoscale cyclonic features translating northward. On their pathway, these features may come very close to the margin, interacting with the near-shelf flow.

Numerical modelling of the phytoplankton patterns in an upwelling event off the NW Iberian Margin

ABSTRACT Rocha, C., Cordeiro, N., Nolasco R., Dubert J., 2013. Numerical modelling of the phytoplankton patterns in an upwelling event off the NW Iberian Margin. An extreme event in September 2007, presenting a strong upwelling core detaching from the Galician NW coast and extending towards west-northwest from the Cape Finisterre - Cape Ortegal zone, with the formation of several filaments and a consequent strong response in chlorophyll concentration values is analyzed. To do so, a NPZD biogeochemical module coupled to a ROMS_Agrif configuration is used. The model response was satisfactory and an analysis of the event, including its forcing, was made. The particular wind direction and intensity along with the specific coastal orientation of the study area were identified as important characteristics for the development of the event. The analysis of the behavior and evolution of this phytoplankton bloom may give further insight in the relations between atmospheric forcing, the consequent characteristic coastal ocean processes, and their conditioning in phytoplankton distribution and patterns in the study area.

Filaments on the Western Iberian Margin: A modeling study

Coastal upwelling filaments off the Western Iberian Margin, detected in AVHRR satellite imagery and in a realistic ROMS simulation of sea surface temperature, were studied in the upwelling seasons (May–October) of 2001–2010. Sea surface temperature data were retrieved from AVHRR satellite imagery and from a realistic ROMS numerical simulation. The development and variability of the observed filaments were characterized and analyzed during each upwelling season of the 10 year period. Filaments were generally found anchored to the main bathymetric and coastal features but off the more regular northern coast of the Western Iberian Margin their locations were more variable. The results from the modeling analysis reproduced well the general features of filament development. Moreover results of model and observation showed very similar characteristics as those found in the earlier study of Haynes et al. (1993). The model output was used to relate filament patterns, eddy activity, and wind forcing. There was a clear relation between upwelling-favorable wind strength and number and length of filaments, although the relation was weaker in the north of the region. Model filaments were clearly related to eddies only during periods of weak winds. The filament detection method was also applied to a climatologically forced ROMS simulation, which reproduced only gross features of the observed and interannually forced model filament development. This suggests that direct wind forcing and its spatial structure are highly important.

Assessing future climate change in the Iberian Upwelling System

ABSTRACT Cordeiro Pires, A., Nolasco, R., Rocha, A. and Dubert, J., 2013. Assessing future climate change in the Iberian Upwelling System The Western Iberian Margin is the northern limit of the Canary Upwelling System, a region of strong mesoscale activity, seasonal variability and thus very likely to be sensitive to climate change. Using a regional ocean model and data from several coupled global climate models (CGCM), climatological simulations were set up for present and for a future scenario. Forcing is obtained from averaging the outputs of an ensemble of CGCM provided by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) A2 emission scenario. Results are focused on the continental shelf (~200 m). In general, the sea surface temperature (SST) seasonal evolution shows, for the future, an increase of about 1°C during the upwelling season (April to September) and 2°C in the rest of the year, while sea surface salinity (SSS) shows a freshening of about −0.2. These results agree with a general increase in air temperature and in fresh water input resulting from ice melting in the North Pole, which characterize this future scenario. However, differences depend on latitude and distance from the coast (higher differences to the south and more offshore, respectively). Also, SSS undergoes a shift of its minimum from July to May or September. Cross-shore sections show that SST and SSS differences are mainly observed in the upper 200 m. In winter, the typical upper slope poleward flow undergoes a slight weakening and shallowing. In summer, while the upwelling jet intensifies at the surface, it is also more restricted in both width and depth.