Jhih-Shyang Shih

Shale gas development impacts on surface water quality in Pennsylvania

Concern has been raised in the scientific literature about the environmental implications of extracting natural gas from deep shale formations, and published studies suggest that shale gas development may affect local groundwater quality. The potential for surface water quality degradation has been discussed in prior work, although no empirical analysis of this issue has been published. The potential for large-scale surface water quality degradation has affected regulatory approaches to shale gas development in some US states, despite the dearth of evidence. This paper conducts a large-scale examination of the extent to which shale gas development activities affect surface water quality. Focusing on the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania, we estimate the effect of shale gas wells and the release of treated shale gas waste by permitted treatment facilities on observed downstream concentrations of chloride (Cl−) and total suspended solids (TSS), controlling for other factors. Results suggest that (i) the treatment of shale gas waste by treatment plants in a watershed raises downstream Cl− concentrations but not TSS concentrations, and (ii) the presence of shale gas wells in a watershed raises downstream TSS concentrations but not Cl− concentrations. These results can inform future voluntary measures taken by shale gas operators and policy approaches taken by regulators to protect surface water quality as the scale of this economically important activity increases.

Dealing with electronic waste: modeling the costs and environmental benefits of computer monitor disposal

The importance of information technology to the world economy has brought about a surge in demand for electronic equipment. With rapid technological change, a growing fraction of the increasing stock of many types of electronics becomes obsolete each year. We model the costs and benefits of policies to manage e-waste by focusing on a large component of the electronic waste stream-computer monitors-and the environmental concerns associated with disposal of the lead embodied in cathode ray tubes (CRTs) used in most monitors. We find that the benefits of avoiding health effects associated with CRT disposal appear far outweighed by the costs for a wide range of policies. For the stock of monitors disposed of in the United States in 1998, we find that policies restricting or banning some popular disposal options would increase disposal costs from about US dollar 1 per monitor to between US dollars 3 and US dollars 20 per monitor. Policies to promote a modest amount of recycling of monitor parts, including lead, can be less expensive. In all cases, however, the costs of the policies exceed the value of the avoided health effects of CRT disposal.

The Cost of Environmental Protection

Reported expenditures for environmental protection are often cited as an assessment of the burden of current regulatory efforts. However, the potential for both incidental savings and uncounted costs means that the actual burden could be either higher or lower than these reported values. Using a production cost model that considers the possible interaction between environmental and non-environmental expenditures, we directly estimate the dollar-for-dollar incidental savings/uncounted costs arising from a one-dollar increase in reported environmental expenditures. Although recent literature supports the idea that reported expenditures probably understate the actual burden, we find no such evidence in the manufacturing sector based on a large panel of plant-level data. In one industry, we find statistically significant overstatement. In three others, we find no significant deviation in either direction. We conclude that, although cost estimates are not overstated on average, variation and uncertainty exist at the industry level, with some plants experiencing savings and others possibly facing uncounted burdens.

Impact of Carbon Price Policies on U.S. Industry

This paper informs the discussion of carbon price policies by examining the potential for adverse impacts on domestic industries, with a focus on detailed sector-level analysis. The assumed policy scenario involves a unilateral economy-wide

An optimization model for photochemical air pollution control

10/ton CO2 charge without accompanying border tax adjustments or other complementary policies. Four modeling approaches are developed as a proxy for the different time horizons over which firms can pass through added costs, change input mix, adopt new technologies, and reallocate capital. Overall, we find that a readily identifiable set of industries experience particularly adverse impacts as measured by reduced output and that the relative burdens on different industries are remarkably consistent across the four time horizons. Output rebounds considerably over longer time horizons, and the adverse impacts on profits diminish even more rapidly in most cases. Over the short term employment losses mirror output declines, while gains in other industries fully offset the losses over the longer horizons. At the same time, leakage abroad is considerable in some sectors, particularly when reductions in exports are considered.

Comparative risk assessment: an international comparison of methodologies and results

One difficulty in developing effective ozone control strategies is to incorporate the complex and nonlinear relationship between photochemical pollutants and their precursors into a mathematical programming model. In this paper, we develop a locally linear approximation to the nonlinear relationship between photochemical pollutants and their precursors. We then develop a mathematical programming model for optimal control of photochemical pollutants. The model minimizes the net present value (NPV) of precursor emission control costs from various emission sources which, subject to meeting ambient air quality goals for different pollutants at different geographical locations over the planning time periods. At the end of this paper, we provide a case study examining photochemical smog occurring in Los Angeles. We discuss what data inputs are required for the air quality management model, the kind of outputs can be obtained from this model and policy implications of the model results.

Air Emissions of Ammonia and Methane from Livestock Operations: Valuation and Policy Options

Comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a systematic procedure for evaluating the environmental problems affecting a geographic area. This paper looks beyond the U.S. border and examines the experience with CRAs conducted in various developing countries and economies in transition, including Bangkok, Thailand, Cairo, Egypt and Quito, Ecuador, as well as other locations in Eastern Europe, Asia and Central and South America. A recent pilot CRA conducted in Taiwan is also considered. Comparisons are made of both the methodologies and the results across the relatively diverse international literature. The most robust finding is that conventional air pollutants (e.g., particulate matter and lead) consistently rank as high health risks across all of the CRAs examined. Given the varied nature of the settings studied in the CRAs, including level of economic development, urban-rural differences, and climate, this finding is particularly significant. Problems involving drinking water are also ranked as a high or medium health risk in almost all the countries studied. This is consistent with the results of analyses conducted by the World Bank suggesting contamination, limited coverage and erratic service by water supply systems. Beyond the major air pollutants and drinking water, the CRA results diverge significantly across countries. A number of problems involving toxic chemicals, e. g., hazardous air pollutants, rank as high health risks in the US but do not appear as consistent areas of concerns in the other countries studied. This likely reflects the so-called risk transition - the shift from sanitation and infection disease problems to those involving industry, vehicles and toxic substances - that often occurs with economic development. It may also reflect the greater information about sources of toxic pollutants in the U.S. For other problems, there are important differences across the developing countries and economies in transition. For example, hazardous and (industrial) non-hazardous waste issues ranked as medium or low health risks in all the countries studied, except for Taiwan where unmanaged toxic waste sites were considered to pose high risks. While the generally low ranking is consistent with the notion that few people are directly exposed to hazardous and (industrial) non-hazardous waste, it is not entirely surprising that views might be different in Taiwan, where space is so limited and population density is so high. We suggest that the wide range of findings likely reflect genuine differences among the countries studied. However, we cannot entirely rule out the possibility that some of the observed similarities (and differences) arise from the (relatively) common methodologies employed.

Did the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 really improve air quality

The animal husbandry industry is a major emitter of ammonia (NH3), which is a precursor of fine particulate matter (PM2.5)--arguably, the number-one environment-related public health threat facing the nation. The industry is also a major emitter of methane (CH4), which is an important greenhouse gas (GHG). We present an integrated process model of the engineering economics of technologies to reduce NH3 and CH4 emissions at dairy operations in California. Three policy options are explored: PM offset credits for NH3 control, GHG offset credits for CH4 control, and expanded net metering policies to provide revenue for the sale of electricity generated from captured methane (CH4) gas. Individually these policies vary substantially in the economic incentives they provide for farm operators to reduce emissions. We report on initial steps to fully develop the integrated process model that will provide guidance for policy-makers.

A Model for Shale Gas Wastewater Management

The degree to which federal policies, such as the Clean Air Act (CAA), actually improve air quality is not fully understood. We investigate what portion of reductions in ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) that occurred 1999–2005 can be attributed to sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions reductions from implementation of title IV, phase 2, of the 1990 CAA Amendments. A detailed statistical model links sources and receptors over time and space to estimate the relationship between changes in emissions and observed improvements in air quality. We employ relatively transparent statistical methods incorporating uncertainty bounds to complement point estimates of the complex physico-chemical fate and transport models commonly used to estimate source-receptor relationships associated with long-range emissions transport. Monitor-specific estimates of changes in PM2.5 from changes in emissions from individual power plants are highly significant and mostly of the expected relative magnitudes for distance and direction from sources; and the model performs well on out-of-sample forecasts. Although we observe substantial model uncertainty, using our preferred specification, we estimate that the title IV, phase II emissions reduction policy implemented 1999–2005 reduced PM2.5 in the eastern USA by an average of 1.07xa0μg/m3, roughly 8xa0% (standard deviation, 0.11xa0μg/m3) versus a counterfactual of no change in emission rates per unit of energy input. On a population-weighted basis, the comparable reduction in PM2.5 is 0.89xa0μg/m3, roughly 6xa0%. This model presents a practical tool that can be used for policy analysis of air quality.

Managing Environmental Liability: An Evaluation of Bonding Requirements for Oil and Gas Wells in the United States

Unconventional oil and gas production using hydraulic fracturing generates significant quantities of wastewater that may contain potentially harmful pollutants. The concerns associated with shale gas development necessitate an investigation of shale gas water and wastewater management using a systematic approach to make sure that shale gas development is environmentally sustainable. In this research, we adopt an integrated system analysis approach to examine the life cycle of water in the hydraulic fracturing process. Specifically, we developed a multi-objective programming model for shale gas water and wastewater management that incorporates the objectives of four types of decision-makers: oil and gas well developers and operators, centralized wastewater treatment facility planners and operators, environmental regulators, and social planners. This paper lays out a modeling framework that can, in the future, be used for a case study of optimal shale gas water and wastewater management. It also provides directions for future expansion of the model.