Jiangcun Zhou

Gravity changes before large earthquakes in China: 1998–2005

Although it is well known that coseismic gravity changes take place during an earthquake, previous research has not yielded convincing evidence demonstrating that significant gravity changes occur before large earthquakes. Furthermore, even if we suspect that gravity changes occur before large earthquakes, we have yet to demonstrate how to consistently observe these changes for useful earthquake forecast that would bring benefits to society. We analyzed ground gravity survey data obtained in 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2005 at stations of the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) and examined gravity changes before the occurrence of nine large (Ms⩾6.8) earthquakes that ruptured within or near mainland China and Taiwan from November 2001 to August 2008. Results from this analysis show that significant gravity changes occurred across a large region before each of these nine large earthquakes, and these changes were detected by repeated ground gravity surveys through CMONOC. Although these gravity changes were significant, more research is needed to investigate whether these gravity changes could be viewed as precursors of large earthquakes. Limitations and uncertainties in the data include sparseness of the gravity monitoring network, long time intervals between consecutive gravity surveys, inevitable measurement errors, hydrological effects on gravity, and effects of vertical crustal movements on gravity. Based on these observations, we make several recommendations about possible future directions in earthquake-related research using gravity monitoring data.

Application of superconductive gravity technique on the constraints of core-mantle coupling parameters

The parameters, i.e. the Period and the Quality factor, of the Earth’s free core nutation (FCN) are closely related to the dissipative coupling between the core and the mantle. Based on the FCN parameters obtained from the actual observations and theoretical simulation, significantly constrained in this study were several key parameters near the core-mantle boundary (CMB), related to the core and mantle coupling, including viscosity at the top of liquid core, conductivity at the bottom of the mantle, and dynamic ellipticity of the CMB. In order to choose high quality observations from global stations of the superconducting gravimeters (SG) on the Global Geodynamics Project (GGP) network, we adopted two criteria, the standard deviations of harmonic analysis on tidal observations and the quality of the FCN parameters calculated with the observations from single station. After the mean ocean tidal effects of the recent ocean tidal models were removed, the FCN parameters were retrieved by stacking the tidal gravity observations from the GGP network. The results were in a good agreement with those in the recent research by using the SG and/or the VLBI observations. Combined with an FCN theoretical model deduced by angular momentum method, the viscous and electromagnetic coupling parameters near the CMB were evaluated. Numerical results indicated that the viscosity at the top of the liquid core was in the range from 6.6×102 to 2.6×103 Pa·s, which was in good agreement with those obtained from the Earth’s nutation, the FCN and variations in the length of day (LOD). The conductivity at the bottom of the mantle should be as large as 2.6×106–1.0×107 S m−1 to match the FCN quality factors from the actual observations. The dissipative coupling had a little influence of 1–2 sidereal days for the FCN period.

A geospatial analytical system for mapping global medium-term earthquake probabilities

The most widely used time interval for long-term earthquake forecast - the process of estimating the probability for a specific area to experience an earthquake of a given magnitude - is a 30-year time window. For earthquake hazards mitigation, it is desirable to shorten that time interval to a few years so that decision makers can allocate limited resources to high risk areas of large earthquakes with a more reasonable time frame in mind. Recent research findings suggest that information derived from high precision large scale gravity monitoring data may be used to make medium-term (5-year) forecast of large earthquakes. To automate the process of making medium-term earthquake forecast based on this approach, it is highly desirable to develop a system that can be used to process massive geographically-referenced data and map earthquake probabilities accordingly. This article presents a geospatial visual analytical system for mapping medium-term earthquake probabilities at a global scale.