Jim Wong

Determinants of the Capital Level of Banks in Hong Kong

Banks incorporated in Hong Kong generally maintain a capital adequacy ratio (CAR) well above the regulatory requirement.1 For example, the average CAR of licensed banks was 28.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2004, against an average required minimum of just 10.3 per cent.2 This phenomenon is also common in other economies.3 It raises the question of what factors determine the actual amount of capital held by banks and, specifically, whether changes in regulatory requirements can affect the level of bank capital.4

A Leading Indicator Model of Banking Distress - Developing an Early Warning System for Hong Hong and Other EMEAP Economies

This study develops a probit econometric model to identify a set of leading indicators of banking distress and estimate banking distress probability for Hong Kong and other EMEAP economies. Macroeconomic fundamentals, currency crisis vulnerability, credit risk of banks and companies, asset price bubbles, credit growth, and the occurrence of distress of other economies in the region are found to be important leading indicators of banking distress in the home economy. The predictive power of the model is reasonably good. A case study of Hong Kong based on the latest estimate of banking distress probability and stress testing results shows that currently the banking sector in Hong Kong is healthy and should be able to withstand well certain possible adverse shocks. Under some extreme shocks originating from real GDP growth and property prices such as those that occurred during the Asian financial crisis, the model indicates a non-negligible risk of an occurrence of banking distress in Hong Kong. However, the chances of the occurrence of such severe events are extremely low. Simulation results also suggest that compared to the period before the Asian financial crisis, the local banking sector is currently more capable of withstanding shocks similar to those that occurred during that crisis. The study also finds that banking distress is contagious, suggesting that to be effective in monitoring banking distress, close cooperation between central banks should be in place.

Residential Mortgage Default Risk in Hong Kong

The sharp fall in property prices following the Asian financial crisis has led many residential mortgage holders in Hong Kong to experience negative equity. At the end of September 2004, there were about 25,400 loans with a market value lower than the outstanding loan amount. The total value of these loans was HK

Price Disparities between Mainland China’s Onshore and Offshore Financial Markets

43 billion. The mortgage delinquency ratio reached a peak of 1.43 per cent in April 2001. While it has improved since the second half of 2001, the delinquency rate in September 2004, at 0.47 per cent, is still higher than 0.29 per cent in June 1998 when data were first collected.1 Given that residential mortgage lending represents a significant component of bank assets, how borrowers’ decisions to default are affected by the negative equity position of their mortgages is of interest to policy makers.2

How changes in global liquidity affect dynamics of banks’ leverage: A case in Hong Kong

As the capital account of Mainland China has yet to be fully liberalized, the offshore financial markets in Hong Kong are beneficial to the development of Mainland China’s trade and financial integration with the rest of the world. However, the institutional separation1 between the onshore and offshore financial markets has created price disparities for the same underlying assets, with prominent examples including the A- and H-shares in the equity markets, the onshore deliverable and offshore nondeliverable renminbi forward exchange-rate markets, and the onshore and offshore renminbi spot exchange-rate markets. Despite increasing integration of the onshore and offshore markets in recent years, significant price disparities continue to exist, and at times, particularly during periods of financial turbulence, they could be fairly large. To gain a better understanding about the causes and implications of such disparities, this chapter aims to shed light on the following issues: (1) why onshore and offshore investors would pay different prices for the same underlying assets; (2) whether the price disparities would converge over time when there are shocks to the markets; and (3) if there exists causation linkages between the two markets.

Hong Kong Mortgage Rate Setting — An Alternative Reference Rate?

This paper examines how abundant global liquidity could influence the adjustment of banks’ leverage. Using banks in Hong Kong as an example, we find that the global liquidity effect is significant, and that mean reversion of banks’ leverage may under certain circumstances be more than offset by abundant global liquidity. Furthermore, we find that changes in global liquidity not only affect the level of leverage adjustment but also the adjustment speed of banks’ leverage.

Interest Rate Risk in the Pricing of Banks' Mortgage Lending

The HKMA has completed a research study on the setting of mortgage rate by Authorized Institutions (AIs). The purpose of the project is to consider whether in an environment of intensive competition and, until recently, abundant liquidity in the banking system, the AIs have adequately taken into account their long term cost of funds in setting their mortgage rates. The study also compares the Best Lending Rate (BLR) with other alternative mortgage reference rates to consider which one(s) would enable AIs to better track their cost of funds in determining the interest rate for residential mortgage lending. The results are presented in this paper.

Predicting banking distress in the EMEAP economies

Intensive competition among banks in Hong Kong has driven the effective mortgage interest rates down to a historic low of around 2.75 per cent below best lending rate (BLR) with cash rebates of 1 per cent of loan amounts in general since early December 2004.2 This, together with falling interest rates, has brought the average mortgage rate down gradually from over 11 per cent in early 1998 to just over 2 per cent in December 2004 (see Figure 5.1). One key reason why banks can offer such low rates is their extraordinarily low funding cost. The spread of BLR over 3-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) has been maintained at around 460 basis points (bps) since September 2003, as a result of the abundance of liquidity in the banking sector. At the same time, customers’ deposit rates have also been at very low levels. On average, the spreads of BLR over the average time deposit rate (TDR) and the effective deposit rate (EDR) have been about 500 bps.3