Jin Murakami

Effects of Built Environments on Vehicle Miles Traveled: Evidence from 370 US Urbanized Areas

Concerns over rising fuel prices and greenhouse-gas emissions have prompted research into the influences of built environments on travel, notably vehicle miles traveled (VMT). On the basis of data from 370 US urbanized areas and using structural equation modeling, population densities are shown to be strongly and positively associated with VMT per capita (direct effect elasticity = ⊟0.604); however, this effect is moderated by the traffic-inducing effects of denser urban settings having denser road networks and better local-retail accessibility (indirect effect elasticity = 0.223, yielding a net effect elasticity = ⊟0.381). Accessibility to basic employment has comparatively modest effects, as do size of urbanized area, and rail-transit supplies and usage. Nevertheless, urban planning and city design should be part of any strategic effort to shrink the environmental footprint of the urban transportation sector.

Rail and Property Development in Hong Kong: Experiences and Extensions

Hong Kong has aggressively pursued transit value capture to finance railway infrastructure through its ‘Rail + Property’ development programme, or R+P. More than half of all income to the railway operators comes from property development. Most R+P projects focus on housing although all have some commercial development. Recent generation R+P projects have stressed pedestrian quality. This research shows this has in turn increased ridership and housing prices. An R+P station with a transit-oriented design averages 35 000 additional weekday passengers. Housing price premiums in the range of 5—30 per cent were found. Hong Kong’s R+P model, it is suggested, is well suited for financing rail infrastructure and advancing transit-oriented designs in the rapidly growing cities of mainland China.

Direct Ridership Model of Bus Rapid Transit in Los Angeles County, California

A direct ridership model (DRM) for predicting bus rapid transit (BRT) patronage in Southern California is estimated. Attributes of bus stops and their surroundings constitute the data observations of DRMs and enable a fairly fine-resolution analysis to be carried out on factors that influence ridership. The best-fitting DRM revealed that service frequency strongly influenced BRT patronage in Los Angeles County. High intermodal connectivity, with both feeder bus routes and rail transit services, also significantly induced BRT travel. As population densities increased, so did BRT patronage, all else being equal. For exclusive-lane BRT services, high employment densities were also associated with high daily boardings. The strong statistical fit of the model bodes well for DRM as a platform for estimating BRT patronage in coming years.

High-speed rail and economic development: business agglomerations and policy implications

High-Speed Rail (HSR) investments in the United States have been justified as an economic stimulus. However, international experiences raise the question of whether the economic benefits conferred by HSR investments are truly generative or largely redistributive. This article examines business agglomerations around 17 Tokaido Shinkansen, 30 Northeast Corridor, and 25 California HSR stations. Cluster analysis formed eight agglomeration types for each of the corridors, reflecting variations in sizes, trends, balances and specializations. Past experiences and patterns revealed by these typologies suggest that HSR is likely to induce greater economic benefits in knowledge-intensive businesses, though they are mostly limited to large, globally connected cities at the expense of small intermediate ones. The redistributive effects of HSR within a region need not be “zero-sum”. When leveraged through proactive policies, increased business agglomerations that take form through redistribution can have generative economic qualities, to the benefit of the region at large.While transport systems bring enormous benefits to society providing access and mobility that are essential for modern societies and economic growth, transport activities have many undesirable external impacts as well, such as CO2 emissions, congestion, accidents, land use and many more. Simultaneously, the transport sector will face many challenges in the future such as urbanization, demographic development, and the scarcity of natural resources, as well as increases in energy and oil prices. Meanwhile, the increase in travel demand could lead to overcrowded airports, delayed flights and congested roads. Therefore, the urge to fight these challenges is pushing economies toward more efficient, and sustainable, solutions. Rail, and particularly High Speed Rail (HSR), is a vital means to meeting these challenges and contributing to sustainable mobility development. It is clearly shown in a background paper to this report that HSR is still more environmentally friendly, even when considering the construction of the tracks and rolling stock in a full life cycle perspective. Thus, compared to other transport infrastructure or transport modes, estimating the impacts during the full life cycle doesn’t change the low environmental impact of the HSR This publication is launched by UIC, the International Union of Railways, which is particularly interested in promoting sustainable mobility and transport and has issued a declaration to that effect.

Making effective fixed-guideway transit investments: indicators of success

This report provides a data-driven, indicator-based model for predicting the success of a fixed guideway transit project based on expected project ridership and resulting changes in transit system usage. Applying this analytical model can help local, regional, and state transportation planning agencies determine whether a proposed improvement project merits investment in more detailed planning analysis. The analytical model encompasses a spreadsheet tool and a handbook detailing its application. The handbook makes up Volume 1 of this report. The final research report makes up Volume 2 and includes the detailed literature review, a presentation of the conceptual framework for the analytical model, a summary of the quantitative analysis methods and findings, and an overview of the case studies used to formulate and test the analytical model. The spreadsheet tool is available separately for download from the report web page at www.trb.org.