Jing’ai Wang

Assessment and Mapping of Potential Storm Surge Impacts on Global Population and Economy

With global climate change, population growth, and economic development in the twenty-first century, large cyclonic storm surges may result in devastating effects in some coastal areas of the world. However, due to the deficiency of global data and large-scale modeling efforts, the assessment and mapping of potential storm surge impacts at the global level are limited. In this article, the potential inundated area of global coastal zones is projected using information diffusion theory, based on the historical hourly sea-level observation records from the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center (UHSLC), considering variations in coastal morphology and tropical cyclone tracks. Combined with global demographic and GDP data, population and GDP at risk of storm surge impacts are calculated, mapped, and validated through the comparison with historical losses. The resulting potential impact maps provide a preliminary outlook on risks that may help governments of countries to make storm surge disaster prevention and reduction plans.

Mapping Global Mortality and Affected Population Risks for Multiple Natural Hazards

Substantial reduction in both mortality from and the number of people affected by natural hazards by 2030 are two principal targets that can be measured to assess global progress toward meeting the goals of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (SFDRR). Based on existing research of expected annual multi-hazard intensity (Mh) of 11 hazards at the 0.5°xa0×xa00.5° grid scale in the World Atlas of Natural Disaster Risk, including earthquake, volcanic eruption, landslide, flood, storm surge, tropical cyclone, sand and dust storm, drought, heat wave, cold wave, and wildfire, a vulnerability model involving Mh and GDP per capita was developed to estimate the mortality level and scale of affected populations in 2005–2015 and 2020–2030. Global mortality and affected population risks were then mapped at the 0.5°xa0×xa00.5° grid scale and the mortality and affected population rates were ranked at the national scale. The results show that most countries can achieve the target of reducing the mortality and affected population rates. Countries with increasing rates such as Bangladesh and Madagascar, where the coping capacity for natural hazard risks cannot keep pace with the increase of Mh and the growth of exposure, should be the “hotspots” of concern in global disaster risk reduction. The method proposed to quantitatively calculate the mortality and affected population risks can provide scientific and technical support for assessing global and national/regional progress in achieving the outcome and goal of the SFDRR.

Mapping Drought Risk (Wheat) of the World

Drought is one of the disasters that most widely affect and damage agricultural production in the world. In this study, the wheat yield loss risk of drought at global is assessed and mapped at the 0.5°×0.5° grid unit, comparable-geographic unit and country and region unit based on the GEPIC-V-R model. The result indicates that the top 10% countries with the highest expected annual wheat yield loss risk are China, Russia, USA, Kazakhstan, Canada, Kenya, Mongolia, Pakistan, Mexico, Chile, South Africa, and Afghanistan.

Crop Insurance Premium Ratemaking Based on Survey Data: A Case Study from Dingxing County, China

AbstractnPremium ratemaking is an important issue to guarantee insurance balance of payments. Most ratemaking methods require large samples of long-term loss data or farm-level yield data, which are often unavailable in developing countries. This study develops a crop insurance ratemaking method with survey data. The method involves a questionnaire survey on characteristic yield information (average yield, high yield, and low yield) of farming households’ cropland. After compensating for random error, the probability distributions of farm-level yields are simulated with characteristic yields based on the linear additive model. The premium rate is calculated based on Monte Carlo yield simulation results. This method was applied to Dingxing County, North China to arrive at the insurance loss cost ratio and calculate the necessary premium rate. The method proposed in this study could serve as a feasible technique for crop insurance ratemaking in regions that lack sufficient long-term yield data, especially in developing countries with smallholder agriculture.

Urbanization and air quality as major drivers of altered spatiotemporal patterns of heavy rainfall in China

ContextLand use/land cover change and other human activities contribute to the changing climate on regional and global scales, including the increasing occurrence of extreme-precipitation events, but the relative importance of these anthropogenic factors, as compared to climatic factors, remains unclear.ObjectivesThe main goal of this study was to determine the relative contributions of human-induced and climatic factors to the altered spatiotemporal patterns of heavy rainfall in China during the past several decades.MethodsWe used daily precipitation data from 659 meteorological stations in China from 1951 to 2010, climatic factors, and anthropogenic data to identify possible causes of the observed spatiotemporal patterns of heavy rainfall in China in the past several decades, and quantify the relative contributions between climatic and human-induced factors.ResultsOur analysis suggests that a total of 84.7–87.5% of the variance in heavy rainfall factors could be explained by large-scale climate phenomena and the local/regional anthropogenic activities. In particular, urbanization and air pollution together explained 58.5–65.5% of the variance. The spatial distribution of heavy rainfall amount and days over time shows a significant and increasing correlation with the spatial distributions of population density and annual low-visibility days.ConclusionsOur results suggest that the substantial increase in heavy rainfall across much of China during the past six decades is likely triggered by local and regional anthropogenic factors. Our results call for a better understanding of local and regional anthropogenic impacts on climate, and the exacerbated extreme climate events as a potential consequence of urbanization and air pollution.

Natural Disaster System in China

Due to the complicated geological and climatic conditions, China is one of the countries in the world that are most frequently and severely affected by natural hazards, and an increasing trend of disaster losses has been observed over the past decades. This chapter systematically examines the natural disaster system of China. The environmental conditions that are inductive to the occurrence of natural hazards, including the lithosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere are first discussed. Then, the types, intensity, and spatiotemporal patterns of major natural hazards in China are presented. After that, characteristics of the main exposure units, including population, urban settlements, transportation system, economy, and land use are discussed. The temporal trends and spatial characteristics of disaster losses including casualty, collapsed buildings, losses in agricultural production, and directly economic losses, are then systematically presented. Finally, natural disaster risks in China are analyzed.

Landslide and Debris Flow Disasters in China

China is a nation facing extremely serious landslide and debris flow disaster risks. Considering the current status of research, this chapter starts with examining the hazards of landslides and debris flows in China, then conducts risk classification and zoning, and proposes integrated disaster prevention measures. Finally, the disaster emergency response process, disaster response mechanisms, and post-disaster restoration and reconstruction processes are analyzed using the Zhouqu debris flow case.

Droughts in China

China is a country frequently hit by droughts and enormous losses, particularly in agriculture, were claimed in the past years. This chapter discusses drought in China. It first explores the spatial and temporal patterns and dynamic change of historical droughts based on statistical data. Causal factors and mechanisms of agricultural drought, which substantially differ from region to region, are carefully examined through regional cases studies. Agricultural drought risks of China, including those for paddy rice, maize, and wheat, are mapped based on a quantitative assessment of physical vulnerability function of crops to drought stresses. Last but not the least, the Chinese strategies for drought disaster response is discussed via three major drought disaster cases.

Experience, Lessons and Recommendation of China’s Response to the Wenchuan Earthquake Disaster

The Wenchuan Earthquake occurred at 14:28 on May 12, 2008 in Sichuan Province of China. It shocked the world, caused huge losses of lives and properties of people, and had immense effects on the development of economy and society in Sichuan, Gansu, Shaanxi, Chongqing and Yunnan. In the aftermath of the earthquake, the Chinese people were remarkably united as one, and conducted powerful, orderly and effective disaster relief with great efforts in the face of daunting difficulties. They achieved a considerable success in earthquake rescue and relief, under the firm leadership of the Chinese Government via the direct command of the State Council’s Earthquake Rescue and Relief Headquarters.

Snow, Frost, and Hail Disasters in China

Snow, frost, and hail are the main agro-meteorological hazards in China. Currently, research on snow, frost, and hail hazards mainly focuses on the formation, spatial and temporal distribution, and disaster-loss evaluation of various exposure units, but little has involved disaster risk assessment and governance. Supported by the “Research and Demonstration of Key Technologies for Integrated Risk Governance” project of the National 11th Five-Year Science and Technology Pillar Program and the Public Welfare Project “Risk Regionalization Research of Meteorological Disasters in China under the Background of Global Change” of the China Meteorological Administration, the natural disaster research team of Beijing Normal University, respectively, studied theory and methods for assessing and mapping snow, frost, and hail disaster risks, and set up a database of snow. This chapter is based on the outcomes of these works.