Jingfang Fan

Network analysis reveals strongly localized impacts of El Niño

Significance El Niño, one of the strongest climatic phenomena on interannual time scales, affects the climate system and is associated with natural disasters and serious social conflicts. Here, using network theory, we construct a directed and weighted climate network to study the global impacts of El Niño and La Niña. The constructed climate network enables the identification of the regions that are most drastically affected by specific El Niño/La Niña events. Our analysis indicates that the effect of the El Niño basin on worldwide regions is more localized and stronger during El Niño events compared with normal times. Climatic conditions influence the culture and economy of societies and the performance of economies. Specifically, El Niño as an extreme climate event is known to have notable effects on health, agriculture, industry, and conflict. Here, we construct directed and weighted climate networks based on near-surface air temperature to investigate the global impacts of El Niño and La Niña. We find that regions that are characterized by higher positive/negative network “in”-weighted links are exhibiting stronger correlations with the El Niño basin and are warmer/cooler during El Niño/La Niña periods. In contrast to non-El Niño periods, these stronger in-weighted activities are found to be concentrated in very localized areas, whereas a large fraction of the globe is not influenced by the events. The regions of localized activity vary from one El Niño (La Niña) event to another; still, some El Niño (La Niña) events are more similar to each other. We quantify this similarity using network community structure. The results and methodology reported here may be used to improve the understanding and prediction of El Niño/La Niña events and also may be applied in the investigation of other climate variables.

Percolation framework to describe El Niño conditions

Complex networks have been used intensively to investigate the flow and dynamics of many natural systems including the climate system. Here, we develop a percolation based measure, the order parameter, to study and quantify climate networks. We find that abrupt transitions of the order parameter usually occur ∼1 year before El Niño events, suggesting that they can be used as early warning precursors of El Niño. Using this method, we analyze several reanalysis datasets and show the potential for good forecasting of El Niño. The percolation based order parameter exhibits discontinuous features, indicating a possible relation to the first order phase transition mechanism.

Resilience of networks with community structure behaves as if under an external field

Significance Much work has focused on phase transitions in complex networks in which the system transitions from a resilient to a failed state. Furthermore, many of these networks have a community structure, whose effects on resilience have not yet been fully understood. Here, we show that the community structure can significantly affect the resilience of the system in that it removes the phase transition present in a single module, and the network remains resilient at this transition. In particular, we show that the effect of increasing interconnections is analogous to increasing external magnetic field in spin systems. Our findings provide insight into the resilience of many modular complex systems and clarify the important effects that community structure has on network resilience. Although detecting and characterizing community structure is key in the study of networked systems, we still do not understand how community structure affects systemic resilience and stability. We use percolation theory to develop a framework for studying the resilience of networks with a community structure. We find both analytically and numerically that interlinks (the connections among communities) affect the percolation phase transition in a way similar to an external field in a ferromagnetic– paramagnetic spin system. We also study universality class by defining the analogous critical exponents δ and γ, and we find that their values in various models and in real-world coauthor networks follow the fundamental scaling relations found in physical phase transitions. The methodology and results presented here facilitate the study of network resilience and also provide a way to understand phase transitions under external fields.

Structural resilience of spatial networks with inter-links behaving as an external field

Many real systems such as, roads, shipping routes, and infrastructure systems can be modeled based on spatially embedded networks. The inter-links between two distant spatial networks, such as those formed by transcontinental airline flights, play a crucial role in optimizing communication and transportation over such long distances. Still, little is known about how inter-links affect the structural resilience of such systems. Here, we develop a framework to study the structural resilience of interlinked spatially embedded networks based on percolation theory. We find that the inter-links can be regarded as an external field near the percolation phase transition, analogous to a magnetic field in a ferromagnetic–paramagnetic spin system. By defining the analogous critical exponents δ and γ, we find that their values for various inter-links structures follow Widoms scaling relations. Furthermore, we study the optimal robustness of our model and compare it with the analysis of real-world networks. The framework presented here not only facilitates the understanding of phase transitions with external fields in complex networks but also provides insight into optimizing real-world infrastructure networks.

Forecasting the magnitude and onset of El Niño based on climate network

El Nino is probably the most influential climate phenomenon on interannual time scales. It affects the global climate system and is associated with natural disasters and serious consequences in many aspects of human life. However, the forecasting of the onset and in particular the magnitude of El Nino are still not accurate, at least more than half a year in advance. Here, we introduce a new forecasting index based on network links representing the similarity of low frequency temporal temperature anomaly variations between different sites in the El Nino 3.4 region. We find that significant upward trends and peaks in this index forecast with high accuracy both the onset and magnitude of El Nino approximately 1 year ahead. The forecasting procedure we developed improves in particular the prediction of the magnitude of El Nino and is validated based on several, up to more than a century long, datasets.

Correlation and scaling behaviors of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration in China

Air pollution has become a major issue and caused widespread environmental and health problems. Aerosols or particulate matters are an important component of the atmosphere and can transport under complex meteorological conditions. Based on the data of PM 2.5 observations, we develop a network approach to study and quantify their spreading and diffusion patterns. We calculate cross-correlation functions of the time lag between sites within different seasons. The probability distribution of correlation changes with season. It is found that the probability distributions in four seasons can be scaled into one scaling function with averages and standard deviations of correlation. This seasonal scaling behavior indicates that there is the same mechanism behind correlations of PM 2.5 concentration in different seasons. Further, the weighted degrees reveal the strongest correlations of PM 2.5 concentration in winter and in the North China Plain for the positive correlation pattern that is mainly caused by the transport of PM 2.5. These directional degrees show net influences of PM 2.5 along Gobi and inner Mongolia, the North China Plain, Central China, and Yangtze River Delta. The negative correlation pattern could be related to the large-scale atmospheric waves.