Jinjing Li

A Review of Spatial Microsimulation: A Reference Guide for Users

Spatial Microsimulation: A Reference Guide for Users is a volume of selected research articles in the field of spatial microsimulation, edited by Robert Tanton and Kimberley L. Edwards. The book contains 16 chapters on various topics guiding the users in the development of a spatial microsimulation model.

Complacent young citizens or cross-generational solidarity? An analysis of Australian attitudes to democratic politics

ABSTRACT Negativity towards mainstream politics is at an all-time high, with young people often targeted as the issue. However, are young people really to blame for political malaise? This article seeks to make sense of contemporary debate about political disenchantment in Australia using a cluster analysis to compare levels of complacency across generational cohorts. In this, we find no evidence to support the idea that Australians of any age cohort are complacent about their democracy. Although, there is some evidence of attitudinal differences between cohorts, criticisms of the practice of politics are also widely shared. Moreover, a majority of citizens appear to favour a mix of reforms combining mechanisms to open-up representative politics with opportunities for more direct intervention. To this end, we rebuke the narrative of a specific apathetic or disconnected Australian age cohort.

Impact of socioeconomic and risk factors on cardiovascular disease and type II diabetes in Australia: comparison of results from longitudinal and cross-sectional designs

Objective Existing large-scale studies do not take into account comorbidity or control for selection and endogeneity biases. This study addresses these shortcomings. Participants We use information on individuals aged between 35 and 70 years from a nationally representative longitudinal survey conducted in Australia between 2001 and 2013. Participants were approached annually, and updates on their characteristics, including health status, were ascertained through self-reporting. Method We develop three different analytical designs. The first model is a cross-sectional analysis against which our improved models are compared. In the second model, we follow the same approach but control for prior health conditions. The last preferred model additionally adjusts for characteristics and risk profile of respondents prior to onset of conditions. It also allows for comorbidity and controls for selection bias. Results Once comorbidity and changes over time in the participants characteristics are controlled for, body mass index (BMI), alcohol consumption and physical activity exhibit a stronger impact than in the models without these controls. A unit increase in BMI increases the risk of developing a cardiovascular disease (CVD) condition within 2 years by 1.3 percentage points (β=0.11, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.16) and regular alcohol intake increases the risk of CVD by 3.0 percentage points (β=0.24, 95% CI 0.09 to 0.39). Both factors lose significance without proper control for endogenous behavioural change. We also note that frequent physical activity reduces the risk of developing diabetes by 0.9 percentage point (β=−0.40, 95% CI −0.72 to −0.07). Conclusions Our result shows a greater importance of certain lifestyle and risk factors than was previously suggested.

What matters in education: a decomposition of educational outcomes with multiple measures

ABSTRACT Significant variations in educational outcomes across both the spatial and socioeconomic spectra in Australia have been widely debated by policymakers in recent years. This paper examines these variations and decomposes educational outcomes into 3 major input factors: availability of school resources, socioeconomic background, and a latent factor that links to the specificities of the local education system such as efficiencies. The proposed method respects the multi-dimensional nature of educational outcomes by estimating structural parameters of an extended education production function with multiple outcome measures. The results indicate that all factors contribute to the variations. Nevertheless, socioeconomic factors dominate non-school-based measures such as the tertiary education enrolment rate. The study also reveals significant differences in education system efficiencies across areas, suggesting compounding factors are often responsible for poor educational performance.

Main drivers of health expenditure growth in China: a decomposition analysis

BackgroundIn past two decades, health expenditure in China grew at a rate of 11.6% per year, which is much faster than the growth of the country’s economy (9.9% per year). As cost containment is a key aspect of China’s new health system reform agenda, this study aims to identify the main drivers of past growth so that cost containment policies are focussed in the right areas.MethodThe analysis covered the period 1993–2012. To understand the drivers of past growth during this period, Das Gupta’s decomposition method was used to decompose the changes in health expenditure by disease into five main components that include population growth, population ageing, disease prevalence rate, expenditure per case of disease, and excess health price inflation. Demographic data on population size and age-composition were obtained from the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations. Age- and disease- specific expenditure and prevalence rates by age and disease were extracted from China’s National Health Accounts studies and Global Burden of Disease 2013 studies of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, respectively.ResultsGrowth in health expenditure in China was mainly driven by a rapid increase in real expenditure per prevalent case, which contributed 8.4 percentage points of the 11.6% annual average growth. Excess health price inflation and population growth contributed 1.3 and 1.3% respectively. The effect of population ageing was relatively small, contributing 0.8% per year. However, reductions in disease prevalence rates reduced the growth rate by 0.3 percentage points.ConclusionFuture policy in optimising growth in health expenditure in China should address growth in expenditure per prevalent case. This is especially so for neoplasms, and for circulatory and respiratory disease. And a focus on effective interventions to reduce the prevalence of disease in the country will ensure that changing disease rates do not lead to a higher growth in future health expenditure; Measures should be taken to strengthen the capacity of health personnel in grass-roots facilities and to establish an effective referral system, so as to reduce the growth in expenditure per case of disease and to ensure that excess health price inflation does not grow out of control.

Main drivers of recent health expenditure growth in China: a decomposition analysis

Abstract Background Total health expenditure in China in real terms has increased from ·124·5 billion in 1993 to ·1165·6 billion in 2012, representing a growth rate of 12·5% per year, which is higher than the growth of the countrys economy (9·9% per year). Data from more recent years, particularly since the introduction of the new health reform (2009–12), suggest an even faster growth in health spending, at about 13·1% per year. Cost containment is a key aspect of the new health reform agenda, and the aim of this study was to identify the main drivers of past growth therefore has direct relevance for the country. Method The analysis was conducted in 2014 and early 2015, and covered the period 1993–2012. We used a rate decomposition technique to decompose total health expenditure growth into five components, namely population growth, population ageing, disease prevalence rate, cost per case, and effect of health price inflation. Demographic information for 1993 and 2012 was obtained from the China National Bureau of Statistics. Age-specific and disease-specific expenditure in 1993 and 2012 and prevalence rates for corresponding years were extracted from the China National Health Accounts Reports and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation database, respectively. We estimated health price inflation by comparing charge per discharge for all conditions for the period 2004–12 with the general price index for the same period obtained from government sources. To test the sensitivity of our analysis, we then developed three separate scenarios reflecting excess health price inflation, deflation in health prices, and a scenario representing no excess health price inflation. As the analyses was based on secondary sources no ethical approvals were sought. Findings Growth in total health expenditure in China was mainly driven by rapid increase in real expenditure per case and health price inflation, which respectively contributed 8·2% and 3·0% of the 12·5% growth in total health expenditure. The effects of demographic factors were small, with ageing and population growth each contributing 1·0% and 0·7%, respectively. However, during the same period, a reduction in disease prevalence led to savings of 0·4% in health expenditure. On the other hand, the increase in cost per case for neoplasms, circulatory, and respiratory diseases contributed 6·6%, 12·7%, and 8·1%, respectively, to the changes in total health expenditure. Sensitivity analyses showed the estimates are robust. Interpretation Future action in containing health expenditure in China should address cost per case and health price inflation, especially for neoplasms and diseases of the circulatory and respiratory systems. Funding None.

A Continuous Labour Supply Model in Microsimulation: A Life-cycle Modelling Approach with Heterogeneity and Uncertainty Extension

This paper advances a structural inter-temporal model of labour supply that is able to simulate the dynamics of labour supply in a continuous setting and addresses two main drawbacks of most existing models. The first limitation is the inability to incorporate individual heterogeneity as every agent is sharing the same parameters of the utility function. The second one is the strong assumption that individuals make decisions in a world of perfect certainty. Essentially, this paper offers an extension of marginal-utility-of-wealth-constant labour supply functions known as “Frisch functions” under certainty and uncertainty with homogenous and heterogeneous preferences. The lifetime models based on the fixed effect vector decomposition yield the most stable simulation results, under both certain and uncertain future wage assumptions. Due to its improved accuracy and stability, this lifetime labour supply model is particularly suitable for enhancing the performance of the life cycle simulation models, thus providing a better reference for policymaking.